Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, October 4th

October 4th 2019, 2:40am, By: tim_tips

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, October 4th.

It's a fairly stock-standard eight-race card this week, with a big day of Group 1 racing coming to us on Saturday.

Tonight's track is rated a Good 4 with the rail out 7m from last week.

Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, October 4th

Best Bet: Race 5 - (9) Sartorial Splendour

Next Best: Race 1 - (6) Meteorite

Best Value: Race 6 - (9) Esposito Gold

Race 1 (Market)

These races can sometimes be tricky to work out with horses on debut without having trialled publicly. With that said, they will have to be pretty good to beat (6) Meteorite. I backed her last start at Caulfield but her chances were all over after blowing the start and settling toward the back of the field. She then copped a bit of a check at the 200m before finishing off strongly. She was only beaten 1.8L and her final 200m was the second-fastest of the race, bettered only by the winner. On debut she actually led before being collared late, with a big gap to 3rd, so if she jumps well here, she should go forward and prove incredibly hard to beat. (2) Billjim looks a value chance at $11. He had no luck on debut. He led early, then let one cross to take a sit, and then was held up until the 200m and then again at the 100m. The horse that ran 2nd came out and won its next start so the form is reasonable. He trialled well leading into his debut and he gets the tongue tie on for the first time tonight. Zahra takes over the ride and he looks a touch over the odds at double figures. (7) Nerone has placed in all three career starts. The form out of his debut has proved incredibly strong, with five subsequent winners. He's been tested over 1400m in his past two but drops back to the 1200m here. He was caught three-wide without cover throughout the race last start so forgive him for that, and all his other form suggests he should be very competitive from the inside gate here. (5) Kiptanui was beaten a nose on debut and gets the blinkers on for the first time tonight with Damien Oliver taking the ride. Not without a chance.


(6) Meteorite


Value: (2) Billjim $11

​Race 2 (Market)

Not overly confident in this race as it looks fairly open. (6) Tragic goes on top. She ran 3rd first up over 1300m at Seymour and then was beaten 2.3L by I Am Eloquent in Listed grade at Caulfield last start. Third up here, up to the mile, back in grade and looks as if she will get a nice run just off the leaders from barrier 5. (5) Selica won nicely on debut over 1200m on soft ground at Moe. The little queries for her today are barrier 7 in the field of 9, as well as the step up from 1200m to the mile. (7) Vegas Jewel could be the value at $10. She won by a nose on debut at Echuca and defeated a horse that was heavily backed to win on its debut. They cleared out from the 3rd horse, which is generally a good indicator that they can progress onto better races. She came with a looping run from the back of the field, so she'll be ridden cold again here, but I wouldn't discount her at the price.


(6) Tragic


Value: (7) Vegas Jewel $10

​Race 3 (Market)

These staying races are of little interest to me and this one is no different. (2) Serenade The Stars goes on top. He put up a brave effort two starts back against Dabiyr when he sat wide without cover throughout the race and still fought on well for 2nd. He then went to Adelaide last start and just found one better, but pulled over 7L clear from the 3rd horse. A repeat of those performances would see him hard to beat. (5) Young Hostess should roll forward from the wide barrier. She's had two wins and a 2nd from her past three starts and her last start victory was over 2800m which gives her a good grounding for tonight's 3000m race. (6) Da Deputy bolted in on heavy round over 3800m at Wagga last start. Queries about the strength of that form but he draws well and can be thereabouts.


(2) Serenade The Stars

BET NOW AT Sportsbet

Value: (5) Young Hostess $9.50

​Race 4 (Market)

This is another headache. (3) Egyptian Gold comes off a 5L win at Ballarat on the Synthetic surface over 2200m. Normally, I hate backing synthetic form when returning to the turf, but such is the lack of quality in this race, I'm going to stick with her. Lindsey Smith declared her as his best of his weekend runners, so that's a pretty good push. The other thing in her favour is the fact she'll roll forward and with the rail out 7m that's a positive. (4) Saddle The Sun has had four runs back from an 80-week spell. She won her first three starts, which were all on good ground, and this is the first time she'll run on a good track since. Look for her to run well. (2) Akamon will put itself up on speed and has a good record at the distance, while (5) Great Alpine Road is a knockout hope.

​Race 5 (Market)

I think there's about two-and-a-half chances here. Very keen on (9) Sartorial Splendour. Unfortunately the $3.20 is all but gone and he's been backed into $2.70, which also won't last as he's as low as $2.35. This horse had a fairly decent wrap on him in his first preparation and he returned with a super effort first up behind what looks to be a serious horse in Garner. He shared the lead up front and was only run down in the very last stride. The Garner form is definitely worth following in my opinion, and this is a big drop back in class from that race. He should slide forward from barrier 13 and probably sit outside the leader. With even luck, he's very tough to beat here. (6) Humzz is going really well. He won three starts back and has since run consecutive 2nds, beaten 0.4L and 0.2L. Chicago Cub beat him two starts ago and he looks a nice type, while Sizzlefly beat him last start and is another horse with proven ability. Humzz will also drive forward from the inside draw and be in it for a long way. (8) Saorsa is first up from a spell and both career wins to date have come first up. Will appreciate the tempo up front.


(9) Sartorial Splendour


Value: (6) Humzz $7.50 & (8) Saorsa $16

​Race 6 (Market)

(9) Esposito Gold was a crazy price at $21 and I still think the $14 on offer is a decent price for an each way bet. She's a track and distance specialist, with two wins and two placings from five starts over the mile at the Valley. She's been given two 'barrier trials' to open her campaign and we can surely expect a change in tactics tonight. Expect her to burrow through from the inside and take up a position right on speed, probably even leading. She won third up over this distance last prep and she looks to have been clearly set for this. (10) Play Me Now is the horse to beat if he returns in the same form he showed in his first two career starts. He led all the way to win on debut at Cranbourne and did the same to coast home over this track and distance at his second start. Last time we saw him he was outclassed in G2 company here but he's first up tonight and if he's wound up, he's the one to beat. (3) I Boogi can pop up in these races. Beware. (6) Supre goes well at this distance and her form from last prep is definitely good enough to win this, but the query for me is the step up from 1200m to 1600m.

​Race 7 (Market)

Keen to see the return of (9) Three Beans here, who has only been to the races once and won nicely as the odds-on favourite at Ballarat on the synnthetic track in May. While synthetic form is a query, he trialled well leading into that and typical of the Hawkes stable, they put him away straight after that debut win. He's sure to be forward enough to win this and he's drawn well in barrier 6. He should be going close. There's a big watch on (7) Victoria Star for me. This horse won its first two starts in New Zealand and was then sold to Hong Kong. He raced only twice there and failed badly on both occasions. He injured a near fore tendon and hasn't raced since April 2018. He now makes his way to Australia. His only public trial at Cranbourne was OK, he looked a bit all over the place on the heavy ground but it was encouraging enough. He's been gelded leading into this run and he's been $21 into $13 in early betting. Keep an eye on him.

​Race 8 (Market)

Hardest race of the night probably. I'm going with (2) Dame Of Thrones on top but not with any great confidence. She was very good last prep with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. That 2nd placing was first up behind Zoubo, who has measured up in better races since. The problem is there is so much speed on paper here, so she might have to take a sit from barrier 2, which means she will need luck at a crucial stage. She looks progressive though. (13) Can'tforgetyou did a great job to win with such conviction first up despite sitting wide without cover throughout. It was the slowest of the three 1000m races on the day but she could have won by further if she had a better run in transit. She might also have to take a sit from the awkward gate with such speed in the race. Only lightly raced and looks to have more to come. Include her in the quaddie. There's probably eight horses in this field that could win without surprising me.


(2) Dame Of Thrones


Value: (13) Can'tforgetyou $15


Caulfield Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 16th

The Blue Sapphire Stakes midweek meeting at Caulfield takes center stage on Wednesday, as we lead in to Caulfield Cup weekend. Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips for Wednesday's card here! read more

2019 ATP Moscow/Stockholm/Antwerp Betting Tips

There's three ATP 250's on this week which will see plenty of the top men's tennis players take to the courts. We preview all three and provide our best bets right here! read more

Horse Racing Tips: Tuesday, October 15th

There's three race meetings in Australia on Tuesday and we'll be focusing on the racing at Newcastle and Kyneton. Luke Krahe has done the form for both meetings and given his best bets here! read more

Horse Racing Tips: Monday, October 14th

After a huge weekend of racing in Australia, it's a fairly quiet Monday with meetings at Echuca and Queabeyan. Luke Krahe has done all the form for both meetings and given his best bets here, as we kick off Caulfield Cup and Everest week! read more


Understanding Betfair Staking Plans

In the third instalment of our Betfair instructional series, we take a look at understanding staking plans and how they can be used to stay in control of your bank roll read more

Understanding the Betfair Markets

In our next strategy guide for the Betfair platform, we take a look at understanding how the Betfair markets work and what different types of backs and lays you can place with Betfair! read more

Understanding Back and Lay Betting on Betfair

Unlike your ‘normal’ betting agency where it’s you versus the Bookmaker, Betfair is a peer-to-peer wagering platform. Betfair allow you to both ‘back’ and ‘lay’ bets, which gives you complete control and a totally unique betting experience. View how full guide to backing and laying here read more

Major Harness Races in Australasia

There are approximately 90 Group 1 level harness races in Australia and New Zealand each year; we've highlighted some of most high profile races on the annual racing calendar here. read more


2019 Cox Plate Odds

The Group 1 Cox Plate is the Australasian weight-for-age championship, run over 2040m at Moonee Valley on Saturday, October 26th. With $5million prizemoney on offer, the race attracts the best local and international middle-distance and staying horses. As we enter the post-Winx era, this year's race shapes as an open betting race; check out the latest odds here! read more

2019 Caulfield Cup Odds

The 2019 Caulfield Cup is one of the biggest races on the Australian racing calendar and will be held at Caulfield on Saturday, October 19th. Check out the latest betting odds for the $5million Group 1 courtesy of Palmerbet here! read more

The Everest 2019 Odds

The TAB Everest is set to be run at Royal Randwick on Saturday, October 19th, with a $14million prize purse up for grabs. Check out the latest betting odds for the world's richest race on turf! read more

Godolphin To Paint The Town Royal Blue

A fantastic day of racing awaits punters at Caulfield tomorrow with four Group 1 races on the card. Can the Blue Army of Godolphin impose themselves tomorrow? Palmerbet are giving you juicy odds if you think so! Find out more... read more