Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, November 1st.
We have a pretty stock-standard eight-race card under lights, with an enormous day of Group 1 racing on Saturday.
The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail out 7m, so on-pace is probably the place to be. There's up to 3mm of rain currently forecast but I doubt that would have a significant impact.
We've previewed every race on the card below!
Best Bet: Race 6 - (2) Defibrillate
Best Value: Race 5 - (3) Triple Shot
It's only a small field and with the rail in the 7m position I'm not sure she will be ideally suited here, but God I loved the win of (4) Heart Of Puissance on debut at Warrnambool. If you haven't already, watch the replay. Her win is bordering on arrogant, despite the margin only being 0.1L. She went back to the tail of the field from barrier 10, tried to come off heels early in the straight, had the door slammed shut, was forced back to the inside where she picked them up very easily basically on one rein. She wasn't touched once with the whip and she had plenty up her sleeve. Her final 200m was the 9th fastest of the day and she just looks to have so much improvement to come with that experience under her belt. I'm really excited by her prospects even though this is a competitive sort of field and she'll have to come from last in a small field on what's likely to be a leaderish track. (6) Sweeping The Board looks a likely leader in the race and is worth having something on at $7.00. She's come through some very strong form races this prep. First up she ran 3rd behind Groundswell, who subsequently ran 3rd in both the Caulfield Guineas Prelude and the Caulfield Guineas. Second up she ran 2nd at Seymour in a maiden that has produced three winners, including Beauty Supreme (3.8L) and Bumper Blaster (6.8L). She then led all the way to win at Kyneton last start, saluting comfortably by 2.75L. She should be very hard to run down in my estimation. Very keen to back both horses here.
(3) Mark The Horse might find himself leading this with no speed in the race. He led his final two starts last campaign, one of which was over this track and distance in the G2 Stutt Stakes. He ran 3rd in that so clearly has some degree of ability. He then spent a year off the track and he's had two runs back leading into tonight. First up he ran 4th behind Polanco, which is a form line that has since been franked with Polanco winning again at Bendigo on Wednesday, and he improved to run 2nd last start at Ballarat, despite working early in the race. Up to the mile third up here with a good draw and no speed, he should be hard to beat. (4) Sandman creates some interest at double figure odds. He ran 2nd to Heart of Puissance first up so if she goes well in Race 1 then he could be a decent hope here. (5) Sayl is knocking on the door. He wasn't beaten far first up at Kyneton where he didn't get much luck, and he worked home strongly to be beaten less than a length at Moe last start. Low draw so Walker could be positive here and Waller has a 29% winning strike rate at the Valley this season.
This looks a pretty competitive affair, with no less than seven last-start winners in the race. Two horses stood out to me. (3) Beehunter was backed off the map on debut at long odds in typical John Sadler fashion. He only just got the nose down to win by a whisker, but him and the second horse pulled away by 4.75L from the third horse. The second horse has since come out and franked the form by winning its next start so I think that shows the form could be quite good. Apprentice Liam Riordan goes on board tonight and barrier 8 is a bit tricky, but I think he can win again with the right run. (10) Somals led all the way to win at 40/1 on debut at Benalla. Since that win, she's been transferred to the stables of Ellerton & Zahra. She jumped out at Flemington two weeks ago alongside Bivouac and went nicely. I think she's worth a bet here. There is $10 still available at Bet365 if you can get on; she's $7.00 elsewhere.
This will be one of the hardest races on the card. (5) Can'tforgetyou looks a reasonable each way price at $7.50. She's come back in great order this prep. She was a comfortable winner first up at Mornington and followed that with a brave effort for 2nd last start after getting caught wide without cover on speed. Hopefully she can get a nice enough run from barrier 9 and be there in the finish, as she has been throughout her career. (1) Germanotta won in harder grade than this last start. She carries the big weight with the drop in grade but she should press forward and go well again. (3) Heavenly Bridges resumes from a spell and she only knows one speed, which is fast, so expect her to find the lead. (7) Write Enough has trialled well but seems short enough as favourite here given she was beaten at $1.65 in Adelaide first up last prep and didn't really put down any convincing performances. (6) Enjoy Elsie is another one I'll be avoiding at $4.80. She was beaten out of sight first up from a 44-week spell at Moe on Heavy ground. Clearly she didn't handle the track but it's hard to back them off that kind of performance after a long spell.
Believe it or not, the first horse to jump off the page at me in this race was the rank outsider (3) Triple Shot and he'll be my best value bet of the night at $61. This horse has had two runs back from a spell and comes into this third up tonight. He wasn't beaten far first up and he always needs his second up run, but third up is when he peaks. He's had three starts when third up for two wins and a 2nd, with his combined winning margin from his past two third up victories totalling around 6L. Drawn barrier 1, can probably lead if they want and with the rail out 7m I think he can run a terrific race. There's $12 available for the place. (10) Three Beans comes here on the quick back up from last week, where he ran 3rd in Group 3 company behind Sartorial Splendour. That's a very good form line but the drop back from 1200m to 955m on the one-week back up is something I'm a bit uncomfortable with. (5) Divine Mr Tycoon will be set for this first up, while (7) Roddandtodd was good first up and looks ready to run a big race here.
Looks a nice race for (2) Defibrillate to continue his winning run. He won his final two starts in New Zealand before coming to Australia and winning his first start here by 1.75L. The step up from 2000m to 2500m is always a little query but I have huge respect for this stable and they're going particularly well at the moment. He'll settle right back in the field from barrier 10 and will be looping them coming to the turn. Looks a progressive stayer. (1) The Delphi brings a bit of a better platform to the race with a 2400m win at his last start. I'm not sure why he's more than double the price of (3) Vellaspride, given he beat that horse last start and they meet at basically equal weights today. He's got the weight but he's still only had three runs back from a spell and he was 1800m up to 2400m last start, so should still be able to improve.
Two horses that appeal most to be as betting propositions here. (5) Vigere won two starts back at Seymour before being run down late at Caulfield last start by Extreme Pride, who has won four races on the bounce. The horse probably doesn't have to lead but with Meech booked from the inside gate it's pretty likely to. Has never missed a place at this distance so looks the one to beat. (10) Sukoot is one of only two runners on the night for Danny O'Brien. He should have won last start Bendigo and he was brave in defeat the start prior, which followed a first up victory. So he's returned in good form. He'll sit off the speed and there does look the possibility that they could overdo it up front so if that's the case, he can swamp them late at each way odds. (9) Fuga is flying since they started leading with her again. She's the one likely to press the issue up front but if they let her go she might take some catching.
This is a good little race to finish off with. (7) Ambleve won here last start over 1200m, beating Three Beans, who then ran 3rd in a G3 and is favoured to win one of the earlier races on tonight's card. Victoria Star also came out of that race and on his next start so the form looks OK. She can go well again here. (10) Sora was backed as if unbeatable first up, but got beat. The margin was as small as they come and she was first up from a 40-week spell so she should improve quite a lot with that run under the belt. She won easily second up last prep at this track and distance. The horse that beat her first up also came out and won his next start so the form is solid. (2) Gennady returned from a spell with an all-the-way victory at Sale. He's now won three from five and looks a live hope, despite carrying 61.5kg. I'd be backing Ambleve and saving on Sora here.
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