Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for night racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, March 23rd.
We have an eight-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position. As always, on pace is set to be advantageous.
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 #4 Spanish Reef
Best Value: Race 3 #3 Haski
RACE 1
Really tough way to start off the night here. The Valley is hard enough to find a winner at, let alone when there’s a field of two-year-old’s with three debutants in the mix. I’ve landed with (8) Absaroka on top. Her run on debut was sound behind Nomothaj, which looks a better race than what she contests here. The winkers go on for the first time and a good hint is Damien Oliver choosing to jump off last start winner (7) Of Importance to keep the ride on the Lindsay Park filly. Should be close enough to the pace and given she started $5.50 in a Saturday race, the $4.20 here isn’t bad. With that said, my confidence level is minimal. The Hawkes stable have a good strike rate at Moonee Valley this season, with six winners from 19 runners. They’re represented by (3) Wild Planet and (6) Quadriga. Ken Keys and Craig Williams have combined four times this season, resulting in two wins, so (5) Green Ivy isn’t hopeless. I liked the Flemington jumpout of (9) Thrillster but she maps very awkwardly from the barrier. (1) Chess Star has obvious claims and will likely go forward.
TIP: (8) Absaroka
RACE 2
Think there’s only three chances in the race here. I’m actually jumping off last-start winner 8) Divine Command in favour of (9) Rock Away who looks ready to win. Divine Command has run her past three races over this track and distance and hasn’t finished outside the top two in any of them. Big jockey change tonight with Ethan Brown taking over from Liam Riordan. The only concern for her is the barrier draw, which could see her land in an awkward spot. Rock Away ran 3rd to Divine Command last start and with three runs under the belt this prep, should be ready to peak here. Draws well and Craig Williams takes over from Chris Caserta for this race. Taking the $5. (6) Rocbolt is the one that terrifies me. He finished last, second last and last in his first three runs this prep, before being heavily backed and bolting in last start when stepped up to 2000m at Cranbourne. Watch the money with this stable – as proven by this horse, it’s rarely wrong. The horse has a good record at this distance and won his only start at this track so I definitely wouldn’t leave him out. The betting will tell you everything you need to know though.
TIP: (9) Rock Away
RACE 3
Three I like here too. (9) Bolek goes on top, purely based on the speed map. This horse should get an uncontested lead from barrier 3, and that’s always a huge advantage at the Valley. The form from his win two starts ago has stacked up, and he ran 2nd in Saturday grade in Adelaide last start. Looks a very winnable race based on the map, expecting he might shorten even further so locking in $4.20. I think the clear value in the race is (3) Haski. This stable is flying at present and this horse only went down by a nose over this track and distance last start. From barrier 1 he should basically get an identical run to the one he had last start and Fred Kersley is a great booking. Keen on the $9. (8) Maximus looks the obvious threat to both of those, but I’ve sided with the other two because from barrier 10, he’s likely to get a long way back and have to make a wide, looping run. (4) Princeton Spirit is undefeated but has changed stables from Mick Kent to Julius Sandhu. I can’t imagine that would have happened if the horse was 100%?
TIP: (9) Bolek / (3) Haski EW
RACE 4
Looks a race in two for mine. (3) Super Too obviously goes on top. She bolted in at her only start over this track and distance and comes off a 3rd placing to Redzel last start. My only query would be the fact that she had a gut-buster last start. She absolutely flew along in front to try and run Redzel off his feet, and she fought on well but how much did that take out of her? She’ll have to go very quickly again here. (8) Scuzi is flying and her win at this track last start was sensational when bursting through along the rail to win. From barrier 1 she’ll have the sit on Super Too, and if Super Too is flat from last start and gets the wobbles, this will be the horse to run her down.
TIP: (3) Super Too
RACE 5
Two I want to back here. I reckon (3) Palazzo Vecchio is a pretty talented filly and she arguably should have won both starts this prep, but she’s been the victim of the same circumstances in both starts. She has been badly locked away on the rails in those two runs and she could find herself in a similar position tonight, but I doubt Oliver will want to lose in the same fashion once again on this filly, so he’ll find a way out. Those who listened to the Flemington review podcast two weeks ago will know I listed (1) Seannie as the run of the race when she finished 6th in the same race as Palazzo Vecchio last start. That was the day that Flemington was a monorail and quicksand out in the middle of the track, yet she managed to reel off some of the fastest sectionals despite being about 10-wide for the whole straight. Her run was enormous all things considered, and her first two runs this prep were both just as good. She will once again have to come from a long way back from barrier 10, but she’s flying and the mile looks like it will suit. (2) Shokora was a great run last start but she did have the run of the race in the right part of the straight in that same race. I think Palazzo Vecchio would have had her covered and although she draws to get every chance again here, I’m tipping against her (4) Think Bleue not hopeless and (6) Hardly Surprising the blowout.
TIP: (3) Palazzo Vecchio / (1) Seannie EW
RACE 6
Following the form from the Matron Stakes here. I think (4) Spanish Reef will go forward to likely sit outside the leader, and from there she should be tough to run down. She’s been impressive in her two starts this preparation – both wins – sitting wide without cover first up before sitting outside leader last start. I like the fact she stays at 1600m here and Zahra jumping back on board is a plus, which offsets my concerns about the barrier. (3) Samovare was very unlucky behind her in 2nd last start. She was held up on the rail and then went for a gap on the inside that wasn’t there. Once she got to the outside she hit the line hard and recorded good late sectionals. She actually beat Spanish Reef convincingly over this track and distance last prep, and is much better off at the weights tonight compared to that victory. My query about last start is that Spanish Reef sat outside the leader while Samovare sat on the rail on a day when the rail was a monorail. She had by far the better run in the race and she just seems to keep finding one better. As I mentioned, her only start at this track was a dominant win, and it will be intriguing to see where she lands from the barrier. (2) Abbey Marie comes out of much stronger races than this but she hasn’t won for a long time and I’d rather be on horses closer to the speed that take luck out of the equation. It’s interesting that Williams jumps off Spanish Reef to ride her, but I’ll steer clear again as I have done for many starts before this. (6) Tiamo Grace looks the value to me at $18. She returned with a positive run first up in a race that was dominated by the leader. Granted, she was in the best part of the track so her run perhaps looked a bit better than it might have been, but she’s a Group 2 winner over 2000m and that was a good run to kick off her campaign. The 1600m here might still be short of her best and she’ll be better at Flemington, but she’s drawn well and looks a big price. (8) Royal Applause has a tremendous record at the track and distance so despite this being out of her grade, she’s a place chance. (5) Life On The Wire should lead.
TIP: (4) Spanish Reef / (6) Tiamo Grace EW
RACE 7
The Group 1 William Reid Stakes. Interesting to note that, if you take out Black Caviar’s wins in this race, favourites have placed in just two of the last eight editions. The last five winners of this race have all finished 1st or 2nd at their last start. The last 10 winners have also all raced in Group 1 races at their last start.
I’ll be backing the favourite (6) Secret Agenda. She didn’t race in a Group 1 first up but her effort to win with 60kg over 1000m at Flemington was outstanding. She’s already a Group 1 winner, and although that was a B-grade Group 1, so is this. The barrier is slightly awkward but she should go forward and be able to sit outside the leader. She’s got a good record at this track, comes off a dynamite win, and I really don’t think she has much to beat here. Happy to be taking $4.20. Hardest to beat could be (2) Hellbent, who only went down by 0.3L in the Oakleigh Plate. He comes into this third up and should be spot on. Williams takes over from Ben Allen and if they go hard up front, he’ll be motoring home from the back of the field at $6.50. Happy to take on (1) Rock Magic who has run well in two A-grade Group 1’s this prep but he was on the best part of the track all the way last start so may have been a touch flattered. (4) Thronum will lead here and he did that when winning convincingly over this track and distance three starts ago. He then went close in the Orr Stakes before a plain run in the Newmarket last start. This is an easier task and leading certainly helps his chances. He’s a chance. (8) Pariah is the horse I’m wary of. He’s clearly been set for this race first up and he’s from a stable I have a huge amount of respect for. (9) She Will Reign doesn’t seem to be going at her best at the moment but barrier 1 is a big help to her chances. (10) Catchy not hopeless with blinkers back on.
Secret Agenda, Hellbent, Pariah and Thronum the ones for me.
TIP: Secret Agenda / Hellbent EW
RACE 8
This is a tough way to end! (8) Deprive looks a nice horse but he’s going to need a 10/10 from Damian Lane here from barrier 12 (starts from 10 after scratchings). This isn’t a horse that goes forward, he tends to settle midfield or worse, so he’ll be in a three-wide running line and having to come wide on the turn. It can be done, but at $2.85 he’s short enough. (9) Sirius Suspect can kick up from barrier 1 and sit very handy. It was a big effort to win at Caulfield last start after he sat three-wide the trip. We’re getting $8.50 and given how well he maps, I’m keen to have something on again tonight. (14) Tbilisi isn’t hopeless here at $15. He won well first up and backed that up with a good run at this track and distance last start when coming from the back of the field. He draws better in barrier 7 tonight and the form from his win has already stacked up, with the horse he beat winning its next start before running 2nd at Flemington last weekend. (12) Garrard is a horse that showed enormous potential as a juvenile, matching it with the likes of Shoals. Draws well here and if he is tuned up for this, he can run a big race.
TIP: (9) Sirius Suspect EW / (14) Tbilisi EW
QUADDIE
1, 2, 3, 4
2, 3, 4, 6
2, 4, 6, 8, 10
2, 8, 9, 12, 14
$100 = 25%
