Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, February 8th.
We’ve got eight races on a Good 4 track with the rail in the 5m position.
Check out our betting tips for every race on the card below!
Best Bet: Race 6 Top of The Range
Best Value Bet: Race 8 Snipes
Very competitive start to the card with five of the eight runners priced between $3.70 and $6.00. I could make a case for a handful of these but I’ll side with Brutally Honest on top, who had no luck at a crucial stage last start when flashing home for 3rd over 1400m at Benalla. Should relish the step up to 1600m at his third career start; my main concern would be that he’s likely to settle near the back of the field from barrier 9 and there doesn’t appear to be great speed in the race at all. Lacazette was good on debut before failing last start. I think they’ll go forward again tonight and I’d be tipping that he could definitely bounce back. So Schmick had no luck last start and gets a big jockey change tonight with D Lane taking over from Martin Seidl. Tower Road gets blinkers on for the first time.
Only a small field here but a great little match race is on the cards between Greyworm and Rox The Castle. Both come into this off dominant wins. Greyworm has won three of his four career starts and bolted in by 2.25L at this track and distance first up. Rox The Castle has won two of his past three and four of his past six. He also bolted in last start, which was over 1400m at Flemington. Should be a fascinating contest – expect Rox The Castle to hold the rail from barrier 2, with Greyworm likely to sit outside him from barrier 4. Tipping Greyworm to just get the better of his peer; he looks a horse up to much better races.
Another good little race. Yulong Wain returned to the races with a dominant win at Geelong over 1100m, leading keenly all the way before holding a solid margin to the line. I suspect they’ll look to use similar tactics tonight. If they can find the rail without using too many tickets, he may be hard to run down with the rail in the 5m position. There’s $6.00 available which looks a reasonable each way price. Fine Dane resumes for his first run since the Flemington carnival in November. He brings some very strong formlines to this race with form around the likes of Written By. He’s another that could be looking to burn forward early. Looks to have plenty of class on his side but he’ll need to be tuned up for a fast-run 1000m dash first up. Montenegro Man and Ollivander are two at double figure odds that could be included.
Looks another match race of sorts between Bleu Roche and Humma Humma, both of whom resume from spells tonight. Bleu Roche was last seen winning down the straight at Flemington during Cup week, taking her record to two wins from four starts. Humma Humma actually started the $5.00 favourite in that race (Bleu Roche was $5.50) but failed, beaten 2L. Her sole win came first up last preparation, where she came from last to swoop over the top of them over 1000m at Sandown. She went on to be very competitive with the likes of Sunlight, so there’s plenty of depth to her form. There looks to be plenty of speed on paper here. I think Humma Humma might get the clear run while Bleu Roche could be strung up in a bit of traffic. But if she does get the gaps at the right time, she’ll likely cover far less ground than Humma Humma. Tough one to work out but I’ll stick with Humma Humma first up. Bleu Roche is every chance of being the better horse in time though.
Tough race. Raven’s Blaze could be worth an each way play here at double figure odds. He’s won two of his past four races and was only run down right on the line last start over the 1000m at Mornington. He’s going to charge across from the wide barrier in search of the lead and with the rail out, he should give a big sight. The query with him is there does look some speed drawn inside him, which could really set the race up for something coming from off the speed. Algadon Miss was solid when winning first up at Cranbourne last start. Should go well again. McGarrett should have the race set up for him but has been very disappointing in his last two races. Sunquest is another that should be suited but he drops from 1300m to 955m and hates winning.
Fairly uninspiring race. Going to stick with the golden rule here and side with the two horses that come into this 2500m race having had a 2500m run at their last start. Top Of The Range is the first of those, having run 3rd at this track and distance last time out, beaten a head. He gets blinkers reapplied tonight. The other horse is Pedro Ximenez. He ran 3rd over 2500m at Flemington last time out and prior to that had been racing in harder races. Well-drawn tonight and looks to find a suitable race. Creedence steps up to 2500m for the first time after racing over 2000m for his past four starts. He’s raced well over this sort of distance in the past but my query is when he last stepped up from 2000m to 2400m, he failed badly.
Keen to be with Wee Gilly each way here at $6.50. She comes into this third up and she’s undefeated from two prior third up runs. The slight query is she’s never placed on Good tracks from three attempts but I’ll take the gamble on her regardless given she’s at her right distance at the right stage of her preparation now. Expect sharp improvement from Wild Sea. I’ll also be having something on her at $7.50. She jumps straight from the mile to 2040m second up and she showed in her debut preparation that she relishes this kind of trip. Plenty of questions in the race with the likes of Crimson Tears and Lope de Field making their debuts for new stables just a week on from the Darren Weir saga. Hard to know how to rate them. Midoriyama steps up from 1400m to 2040m.
Terrible race but three I’m interested in to finish off here. Snipes goes on top at double figures. He comes into this third up from a spell and is Brent Stanley’s only runner of the night at the Valley. He’s also one of just two rides for Michael Walker on the night. These two combine well and the horse’s third up record is sound. In a race lacking quality, he can go close. Tour Down Under put two wins together before dropping from 1500m to 1200m for his last race at Caulfield. Back up to 1500m now and finds another winnable race. Waiting For A Mate also put two wins together at the start of his preparation and then just found strong race last start at Flemington. Rox The Castle was the horse who won that and that form is plenty good enough for this race.
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