Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for night racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, February 16th.
We have an eight-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the 5m position. As has been the case in recent months, it’s going to be advantageous to be on pace, especially with the rail out.
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Best Bet: Race 3 Invictum Domina
Best Value: Race 7 Ormito
Tricky one to start the night with seven horses on debut. I’m most interested in (11) Star Order for the strong Cumani/Childs combination. It’s a stable ad jockey I really like backing and it wasn’t too long ago that we saw them bring one to town on debut in the form of WeTakeManhattan, who won. Draws well in barrier 4, hopefully sits close to the speed and gets over the top late at $5.50. (1) Another Bit looks to be a bit of value at $8, because it looks the likely leader in the race. It’s had just the one start at Bendigo back in October, where it beat just one runner home in a small field, but it only peaked on its run in the latter stages of the race and the form has turned out reasonable. Returns from a spell as a gelding here and from barrier 12 should be burning across to lead, which gives it every hope at the Valley with the rail out. (3) Power Of Attorney is the one I’m hugely wary of – a debutante for Tony Vasil with Damien Oliver booked to ride. Won’t be losing on it.
TIP: (11) Star Order / (1) Another Bit EW
Great to see the return of (5) Limestone here, who we last saw back in the Spring when finishing 4th in the Group 1 Coolmoore Stud Stakes behind Merchant Navy. This filly has the ability to race at the top level and if she brings her A-game tonight she’ll win. The concern for her is that she’s likely to be near the back of the field, but there’s just the six runners so she shouldn’t be all that far away. (7) Sacred Sham bolted in at Geelong last week but despite the 3.25L margin, I really don’t think the horse is as good as Limestone. It was only a BM64 that he won so I’m prepared to take him on here. (6) Septamore could be the value if it finds the rail and leads.
TIP: (5) Limestone
I thought (7) Invictum Domina was one of the better bets of the night here. She will bounce straight to the lead from barrier 2 and with the rail out 5m she’ll be very hard to run down. Her first up run was enormous after being caught three-wide the trip, and still closing in hard to be beaten just a length on the line. The only concern I’d have tonight is whether that gut-buster makes her race flat tonight. But she’s been given a few weeks off and with just 54kg tonight with Fred Kersley aboard, she should be very hard to beat. (1) Brugal Reward has a terrific record at this track and distance with four starts for two wins and two placings. Her awkward draw means she will likely produce a very similar run to last start – get back, come wide and hit the line strongly. (4) Special Diva trialled eye-catchingly well at Geelong leading into her first up run tonight, but she’s only placed once from four starts when first up so I’m inclined to take her on. Last start track and distance winner (5) Savaju draws barrier 1 and Damien Oliver retains the ride so based on last start she should be giving this a good shake, but she will need even more luck than she got last start. (6) Fille Champagne and (8) Florida Keys both come out of the same trial, and both trialled well, but they each have relatively poor first up records. (3) Petite’s Reward could be the blowout. She hasn’t had any luck at her past two starts and should box seat behind the leader tonight.
TIP: (7) Invictum Domina
Good little race. Just the five runners but any of the five could win this. Even though it’s a small field they could fly along in this, with three of the five runners leading last start. (5) Brook Magic looks the likely leader here from the widest barrier. She only knows one speed and that’s fast. She’ll fly across from out wide, with (3) Holy Seal possibly sitting on her outside. (4) Sister Kitty Mac will box seat, with (2) Clipper sitting one-out-one-back. (1) Dance With Fontein will be at the rear. I think it’s a race between Brook Magic and Clipper – the Sydney form is superior in my opinion. If Brook Magic has to do some work to find the front, it could leave her vulnerable, and the way I see it being run, Clipper should just have the drop on her. The fact Dwayne Dunn rides Brook Magic is a negative, because he tends to anchor drop on leaders rather than let them cruise. And Damien Oliver being on Clipper is a big plus. With all that said, Weir has been in red-hot form at the Valley in recent weeks and I’d expect Holy Seal to be very competitive, while Sister Kitty Mac bolted in over the track and distance last start, but she won’t find the lead here.
TIP: (2) Clipper
Two I’m interested in here. (5) Summer Sham goes on top. She won on debut at Ballarat in a small field, but her and the runner-up looked very smart, and the runner-up has since come out and won in town at her next start. From barrier 9 she’s going to need to be very good because she’ll likely get back and have to come wide, but if she can get a tag into the race and be close enough on the turn she might just be too good for these at $4.20. (1) Baduzzi won well at Mornington two starts ago before being outclassed in Saturday grade last time out. She should lead from barrier 1 and the stable is in very good form. The drop in grade will help her and she should be there for a long way at $7.50. (8) Miss Vixen and (10) Tardis both go in the quaddie, while (3) Mawzoona and (9) Soul Star are others with chances.
TIP: (5) Summer Sham / (1) Baduzzi EW
Three main chances I want to build a book around. (7) Bernie Boy has had four runs back from a spell now and gets up to his pet distance of 2000m. He always takes a few runs to get going but as he showed last preparation, once he finds form he generally keeps it. Draws well and can sit close to the pace from barrier 3, and Ethan Brown takes over from Lachlan King which is a big jockey change. Taking $6. (12) Zandarral is in a similar boat. He’s had three runs back from a spell now and gets up to his pet distance at his fourth run back. He’s got two wins and one placing from 13 starts when either first, second or third up from a spell, but fourth up and beyond his record is five starts for one win and two placings. He looks ready and $6.50 is available. (5) Mutarakem could lead this field and if that happens then he will be hard to run down. He’ll appreciate the drop in grade. (2) Ancient History was luckless at a crucial stage last start when bolting on the turn. The concern tonight is the wide barrier, which generally means they go back from this stable.
TIP: (7) Bernie Boy / (12) Zandarral EW
Keen on two Weir runners here. (1) Master Of Arts looks to have been set for this race. He’s had three runs back from a spell and now gets to a 2500m Listed race at his fourth run back. He always takes some racing before hitting his straps – his record when first, second or third up from a spell is 12 starts for one win and three placings. His record fourth up and beyond is 12 starts for six wins and three placings. He’s won multiple times at this distance or similar, draws barrier 1 and should give a bold sight here at $7. His stablemate (9) Ormito may even be the stable’s top seed, despite being a $9 chance. He ran 2nd over this track and distance two starts ago when he was well backed, and then ran 3rd over 2800m in the Bagot Handicap last time out. He’s had 46 days off the track, and with any other trainer that would be an automatic penjob, but Weir will have him fit. Draws well and should go close at good odds. (4) Double Bluff was somewhat of a surprise winner at Caulfield last start but Mark Zahra keeps the ride here which indicates he will be competitive once again. First time at the Valley as a 7YO is some concern, and whether he can back it up and win again is the query. (10) Dornier is knocking on the door but Ormito had him covered two starts ago. (7) O’Lonera has strong claims but jumps from 2000m to 2500m which I don’t like (Weir is the only trainer I can trust to do that). (5) Sayed has the 2400m run under his belt and should lead this, so could be hard to catch, while D Oliver takes the ride on the stablemate (2) Vassal, who has been consistently around the mark in Sydney.
TIP: (1) Master Of Arts / (9) Ormito EW
Looks a race in two between (4) Knight Commander and (11) Abyssinian. I was on Knight Commander last start but I’m going to jump ship today and go with Abyssinian. This filly has won two from two and her last start win at Pakenham was impressive. She’ll get back from the barrier but by this stage of the night they should be able to make ground, and if she’s close enough, she has the ability to launch down the outside. Taking $3.70. If she doesn’t win, I think Knight Commander will. He was aided by an A1 ride from Damian Lane last start but draws well again here and Ethan Brown is riding in great form. Outside of those, it’s worth throwing a few at longer odds in the quaddie. (2) Excitement won over track and distance last start and D Oliver keeps the ride. (5) Affray comes over from Adelaide and gets the blinkers reapplied, and (8) Our Mallee Hoff isn’t hopeless. Going to take on (6) Bord de Gain and (12) Toga Picta.
TIP: (11) Abyssinian
QUADDIE (wide – skinny)
1, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10 1, 5, 8
2, 5, 7, 12 7, 12
1, 2, 4, 5, 9 1, 9
2, 4, 5, 11 4, 11
$100 = 20.83% $100 = 416.66%
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