Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for Moonee Valley on Friday, March 20th.
The Moonee Valley meeting on Friday night kicks off a huge weekend of racing in Australia and abroad, with the Group 1 Williams Reid Stakes headlining the card. The Listed St Albans Stakes, G3 Alexandra Stakes and G2 Sunline Stakes are also included on the program, making it a very juicy card!
Check out our race-by-race preview, tips and best bets for The Valley below!
Moonee Valley Racing Tips: 2020 William Reid Stakes Night
Best Bet: Race 8 - (4) Princess Jenni
Best Value: Race 2 - (12) Oasis Girl
Tough race to kick things off with. (10) Alsvin resumes from a spell tonight and he's got a great first up record, with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. Linda Meech is booked to ride, so I suspect he will go straight to the front, or at least attempt to. He's a good roughie in an open race at $21. (1) Sam's Image was only fair as favourite first up but he settled last in the run and it's tough to come from there and win over 955m. From barrier 1 and the rise to 1200m, I think we will see him ridden much more positively. Mark Zahra takes over from the apprentice so he should be ready to run a big race. (6) Cashed Up is Patrick Payne's only runner of the night and whenever he brings runners to The Valley he must be respected. (11) Boltoutoftheblue another roughie to include.
This is a terrific little three-year-old race, with some handy types engaged. (9) Ocular won impressively on debut before bumping into the very smart How Womantic at his second career start. That's a form line that I rate very highly, and outside the winner, he was the only other horse to break 23 seconds for his final 400m. He's had 10 weeks off and returns tonight. Interesting to see if he goes forward or back from the gate, but with any luck he will be in the finish. I think the value in the race is (12) Oasis Girl at $12. She was terrific last prep. She had no luck at all in her first up run when held up the whole straight, she then won her next two, before sitting three-wide the trip in Listed company when only beaten 2.5L. Damian Lane goes straight on first up, and if they are able to run on from back in the field, she rates as a big hope at good odds. (10) Wings Of Pastrami won four from four last prep. Craig Williams goes straight on first up tonight so she deserves plenty of respect. (6) Overkill should arguably be undefeated and should improve from his first up run.
Value: (12) Oasis Girl $12
I backed (9) Montia on debut when she won impressively over this track and distance. It was only a small field but she was dominant and from a good draw again tonight, there's no reason she can't win again. (10) Phere Her looks huge odds to me. She was unlucky not to win on debut at Cranbourne, where she was held up until the final 100m of the race, where she then balanced up and hit the line hard. She's drawn well and any runner from the Begg stable has to be respected. (4) Unanimous also looks a good price at $8.00 after recording a dominant win on debut at Sandown. Her final 200m was the fourth fastest of the day. (1) Larimer Street gets blinkers on for the first time.
Value: (10) Phere Her $34
Keen to stick with (1) Too Close The Sun here, who was brave in defeat in his first Eastern States run at Flemington. He's only ever missed a place once in his career and that was on debut where he ran 5th. Since then, he's been a model of consistency. He'll come on from that run at Flemington and if he can find the front without too much trouble, he'll be very hard to run down. (10) Relucent is really going to appreciate the step up in distance third up from a spell, but he's short enough in the market for a horse that's won just one race. (7) Sam Slick, (13) Classic Bright and (14) Big Brew outside chances.
(1) Too Close The Sun
$3.70
The 955m races are hard enough normally, let alone when it's the season final. (2) Epic Grey is flying this prep and he made it back-to-back wins last start when winning over track and distance. Notably, he was meant to run in bar plates that night but there was a late announcement that he wouldn't be wearing them. He's had five weeks between runs since then but that's OK because he's a horse that races best fresh. There looks quite a bit of speed in the race so from barrier 2 he should get a nice trail, he'll just need some luck rounding the turn and into the straight. (3) The Centaurian was very good in his two runs last preparation, which included a win over 1000m here. He also draws well in barrier 4 and goes well fresh. (5) Our Gladiator has won both races this time in, both at this track and distance, and overall all 10 career wins have been between 900m-1000m, so she's a real short-course specialist. (6) Bella Vella holds the fastest time in the series coming into tonight. That was recorded back in October when she won dominantly. If she reproduced that she'd win this. (7) Miss Norway looks to peak third up from a spell and comes off a strong effort behind the talented Diamond Effort which could prove to be a superior form line. (10) The Commoner could arguably be undefeated this prep so can't be discounted. Tough race!
(7) Paradee draws terribly in barrier 12 so she has a big task ahead of her, but she should be undefeated this prep and comes into this off a dominant win at Flemington. We will need a piece of D Oliver magic but I really like the way she's been going and I think she's capable of winning again tonight. (4) Betcha Flying is another with a bad draw that's going to see her settle near the very back of the field. She did nothing first up in Sydney but she tends to bounce off that first up run and improve significantly for her second up run. (2) Meuse ran 3rd in a similar race last start and gets the blinkers applied for the first time tonight. Damian Lane gets back aboard and from the good draw she looks a strong chance.
Race 7 - G1 William Reid Stakes (Market)
One of the best William Reid's we've had for many years! It's hard to tip against the favourite (9) Bivouac but once again, it could be all over for him after 50m if he jumps poorly. We saw what happened last time he started from barrier 1 here at The Valley - he stepped a touch slow, had to settle further back than they would have liked, and he was snookered away on the rail for the entire race. His win in the Newmarket Handicap last start was arrogant and although this is weight-for-age, he still gets in well as a three-year-old. He's quite clearly the one to beat, it's just whether you want to take $2.70 with that query in mind regarding the barrier and running position. I'm personally in his corner. Outside of him, though, there is quite a bit of value around. (3) Gytrash ran 3rd to Bivouac in the Newmarket. He draws well here in barrier 4 and still remains somewhat underrated by the market. (1) Scales Of Justice is the really interesting runner. He was a G2 winner first up over this track and distance before failing in the G1 CF Orr Stakes last start. From all reports he pulled up a bit ordinary from that. They've freshened him up and aimed him at this race tonight. He has a terrific third up record with four wins from five starts and he's never missed a placing from seven starts at the distance. Drawn ideally in barrier 3, he looks a great roughie at $10. (7) Pippie led all the way to win the Oakleigh Plate first up. She steps up to WFA tonight and will be your likely leader with her blistering early speed. The 1200m will be the query but The Valley gives her a chance. If they overcook it up front, look for (8) Embrace Me at huge odds storming down the outside. She's a $41 chance and I think that's well over the odds. She was beaten less than a length by Scales Of Justice when they met in the Australia Stakes. (11) Loving Gaby is a chance and will run well as always, while (10) Exceedence is a runner I've struggled to assess. I've been in his corner plenty of times, including in the Newmarket, but it's hard for me to have him tonight based on that run and based on the fact it's his first start at The Valley. His racing pattern could make it difficult.
Bivouac on top for me, but Scales Of Justice is a great each way chance, and Embrace Me is a blowout at huge odds.
Value: (1) Scales Of Justice $10 & (8) Embrace Me $41
I think (4) Princess Jenni is one of the bets of the night here. Her first up run was very good, when 3rd at Flemington behind Wild Planet over 1400m. She always bounces off her first up run into her second up run. She's undefeated from three starts when second up from a spell, and she's also undefeated from two starts at this track and distance, which includes a G2 win last prep. Damien Oliver goes on tonight, she draws perfectly in barrier 5 and I've been waiting for her to run since that first up performance and tonight looks the perfect race for her. Very keen! (2) Spanish Reef was disappointing last start but she always has to be respected in these sorts of races, while (3) Irithea will lead and be tough to run down.
