Saturday afternoon football kicks off at the MCG with Hawthorn taking on Melbourne. The third placed Hawks will be looking to hold their spot in the top four, while the Demons come into this clash on the back off a three game winning streak! Catch our preview and tips for the match below.
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2025 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn
Location: MCG – Melbourne
Date: Saturday, 10th May
Time: 1:20pm AEST
Odds: Melbourne ($3.50) vs Hawthorn ($1.30)
Line: Hawthorn -22.5
Points: 170.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
After consecutive losses in Rounds 5 and 6, Hawthorn have bounced back with consecutive wins by 50 and 65 points, to sit a game clear inside the top four. The Hawks never got out of second gear in their 65 point win over Richmond last week, with Massimo D’Ambrosio starring with 30 disposals and 2 goals.
The Hawks registered another triple digit score as veteran Jack Gunston continued his remarkable season with 3 goals, while NIck Watson (3), Jack Ginnivan (2) and Mabior Chol (2) were all lively.
Melbourne picked up their third consecutive win in Round 8, with a 32 point win on the road against West Coast. The Demons were behind at half time, but kicked seven goals to two in the third quarter, which was ultimately the difference in the game. Skipper Max Gawn produced a ridiculous stat line, recording 47 hitouts, 35 disposals, 9 clearances, 8 marks and 1 goal.
The Dees have made three changes, headlined by Clayton Oliver’s return. Jacob van Rooyen and Matt Jefferson also come into the team, with Jack Viney (concussion), Harry Petty (concussion) and Jake Melksham (managed) the outs. Hawthorn have just one change, with Karl Amon replacing Tom Barrass who has been managed.
Hawthorn’s pressure game has been firing on all cylinders over the last fortnight, which has led to them kicking scores of 124 and 109 points. The Hawks are one of the best pressure teams in the competition, ranking 3rd for tackles, 3rd for pressure acts and 6th for tackles inside forward 50. Hawthorn have scored 63 and 77 points from turnover across their last two games, while Melbourne have conceded an average of 48 points per game from turnovers this season.
The scoring capacity between these two teams is a massive advantage for the Hawks, who are the fourth highest scoring team in the AFL this season (95 points per game). Melbourne ranks 14th with 75 points per game, only scoring more than 85 points in two games.
Hawthorn have also shown an ability to slice up teams who can’t apply enough pressure, going from the defensive 50 to their forward 50. The Hawks are ranked 3rd in the AFL for going from defensive 50 to scoring, and are third in the AFL for scores from defensive half (38.5 points per game). The Demons rank 14th for tackles and 10th for pressure acts, which the Hawks will expose if they use the ball well.
Melbourne have certainly had the wood over Hawthorn, with the Hawks having not beaten the Demons since 2018. However, it’s clear the trajectory that these sides have been on since the halfway mark of 2024, and all signs lead towards a comfortable win for the Hawks. Four of Melbourne’s five losses this season have come by 38+ points, with their average losing margin at 39 points.
Hawthorn -22.5
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Throughout the 2025 AFL season we’ll be putting together a fun same game multi for every match at BoomBet using their BetShare feature.
To follow our multi, just click on the BoomBet BetShare button below and our same game multi selections will be added straight into your bet slip on BoomBet. You can then
enter how much you wish to wager, and with a single click, your bet has been placed!
Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals: After a quiet month to begin 2025, Christian Petracca is back to his best in what has been an excellent month of footy from the Dees star. Since Round 5 Petracca has recorded 27, 25, 28 and 29 disposals and is showing no signs of slowing down.
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals: After a quiet outing in Round 7, Newcombe was back to his best with 27 disposals and 5 clearances against Richmond. Newcombe has reach the 25+ disposal mark in 5 of his last 7 games
Jack Gunston 2+ Goals: One of the great stories of 2025 has been the resurgence of 33 year old Jack Gunston. Heading into Round 9 Gunston is ranked equal fourth in the Coleman Medal race with 20 goals from just 6 games, and has kicked multiple goals in all 6 of his games in 2025.
SGM Odds: $3.50 at BoomBet
