NRL Round 20 comes to a close with a battle in the Hunter, as the Warriors look to build on their big win last week when they take on the hapless Knights. The Warriors are clinging to the final spot in the top 4 by a thread and need to win this game to maintain their two-game buffer over the Broncos. With the Knights only 2 points of the bottom of the ladder, they will also be desperate for a win at home.
Knights vs Warriors Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 20
Knights Season Circling the Drain
The Knights come in losers of two straight, with their round 19 loss to the Storm all but ending their finals aspirations, going down 32-14 at home. After losing fullback Kalyn Ponga for the season with a Lisfranc injury, the Knights lost standout backrower Dylan Lucas to the same injury during last weekend’s game, in a cruel blow for the in form edge forward. Dane Gagai took over at fullback for the injured Ponga, and looked the most likely for the Knights, running for 249 metres, breaking the line one, busting 6 tackles, and setting up a try. He will stay at fullback for the foreseeable future, and for those punters playing any form of fantasy rugby league, could be worth a look down the closing stretch of this season. Bradman Best was also solid, running for 200 metres and busting 10 tackles, however they were never in the contest with the far superior Storm.
Life After Luke?
The Warriors come into round 20 off the back of their first win since round 14, dominating the Tigers 34-14 at home. It was a much-needed win for the Warriors, as they stopped the bleeding and the progress of the Broncos and Panthers getting closer to them in the hunt for a top 4 finish. Roger Tuivasa-Scheck was massive for the Warriors, running for Panthers have turned their season around over the Origin period, as they now sit inside the top 8 metres, breaking the line twice, and scoring a try, whilst Taine Tuaupiki proved a handful at fullback, running for 223 metres, setting up a try, breaking the line once and busting 11 tackles. The Warriors were potent in attacking, making 10-line breaks, in a great sign that there may be life after Luke Metcalf.
Knights vs Warriors Recent History
The home team has dominated this contest over the past five seasons, with the only win by a road team coming from the Knights in 2022 when the Warriors were playing their home games at Kayo Stadium. For a true “away” win, you have to go back to round 16 in the 2019 season, where the Warriors got the better of the Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium, 24-20.
The sides last battled back in round 8 this season at Apollo Projects Stadium in Christchurch, with the Warriors closing 8.5-point favourites at home, with a low total of 42.5. It was a quick start to the home side, who shot out to a 16-0 lead at the break. Both teams scored two tries in the second half, but the Warriors were never in danger, running out eventual 26-12 winners. The Warriors had contributors all over the field, with 10 players running for over 100 metres. They would love that sort of output again, and with the Knights missing several of their key players, another Warriors domination could well be on the cards.
Points at a Premium for Sunday Afternoon Football
The Warriors were listed as just 6.5-point favourites on the look ahead, before their terrific performance last week against the Tigers. Rather expectantly, they re-opened at 7.5 with strong backing, however, there hasn’t been any further movement since this time. The Knights have played better at home this season, but I get the impression that the wheels have well and truly fallen off in Newcastle and wouldn’t at all be surprised to see the Warriors lap them this week. I am slightly concerned about the Warriors lack of form outside New Zealand, and I only make them 7.5-point favourites, so there isn’t a tonne of value in the number, but I would very much lean towards a Warriors cover.
Looking at the total, and it opened 44.5 and has been bet down slightly to 43.5. I fully agree with this move, and I am heavy on the under in this one. Whilst the Warriors have been 50/50 on their totals this season, the Knights have hit unders at an 82% clip, good for the second highest percentage in the NRL. Only three of their 17 games have gone over the total, and with my numbers totalling this in the 30’s, I love the under here. The concern is the Warriors putting the Knights to the sword, similar to what they did against the Tigers last week, but I trust the Knights to have a little more resolve in defence at home. The under is the play here.
Under 44.5 Points
$1.88 (3 Units)
Knights vs Warriors Player Prop Bet: Simply the Best
Our Best Prop Bet: Best 1+ Try
The former Blues centre has only managed five tries this season, however I can see him having a field day against this weak Warriors right edge. With Ponga, Lucas, and Fletcher Sharpe all missing, Best is easily the biggest threat for the Knights, and he needs to step up this week.
Bradman Best (1+ try)
$2.75 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi: Knights vs Warriors
Leg 1: Under 44.5 Points – See Best Bet.
Leg 2: B Best (1+ try) – See Best Prop Bet.
Leg 3: A Pompey (1+ try) – Has been in a bit of a try scoring drought of late but had two in the meeting earlier this season with the Knights and is due.
Knights vs Warriors Better Odds & Match Info
Location: McDonald Jones Stadium - Newcastle
Weather: Sunny, 17 degrees
Odds: Knights ($2.80) vs Warriors ($1.44)
Where to Watch Knights vs Warriors
Watch the Knights vs Warriors match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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