Just the one game for Friday night football in NRL Round 13, as the Bulldogs head up to Newcastle to take on the Knights. With the Knights (7th) and Bulldogs (10th) both hunting a top 8 spot at the end of the season, these types of games will be crucial for all teams battling it out for maybe just one or two spots come seasons end. Should be a fascinating matchup.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 13 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs
McDonald Jones Stadium, Friday 31st May, 8:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Knights are fresh off the bye, with their last start ending in a 28-24 win over the Titans in Magic Round. This result has aged well, given the Titans beat the Broncos last week at Suncorp Stadium. It’s been a remarkable run of form for the Knights since the loss of their fullback Kalyn Ponga, winning four straight to pull themselves back into the top 8. Rookie David Armstrong was superb in Magic Round, scoring three tries, whilst breaking 10 tackles and running for 264 metres. Kalyn who?
As for the Bulldogs, they bounced back strongly last week, after a pair of losses in rounds 10 and 11, hammering the Dragons 44-12 at Accor Stadium. The Doggies ran for nearly 800 metres more than the Dragons, whilst creating 8 line-breaks to two, all whilst completing at 89%. Jacob Kiraz was sensational, scoring two tries, whilst breaking the line twice, busting six tackles, and running for 259 metres. It was a much-needed win for the Doggies, who are aiming for their first finals appearance since 2016.
Match Preview
The Knights and Bulldogs met twice last year, with two huge wins for the Knights. The Bulldogs got some revenge earlier this season, running out 36-12 winners at Accor Stadium in round 7 as 1.5-point underdogs. This was the game the Knights’ season changed, with Kalyn Ponga going off injured in the second half, and the Knights winning four straight since the loss. The Bulldogs shut down the Knights’ attack, limiting them to only 1235 total metres, whilst the Bulldogs were efficient in attacking areas, busting the line 7 times and scoring 36 points despite completing at just 67%.
The Knights’ opened 1.5-point favourites for this week’s matchup, however after the State of Origin teams were named and Matt Burton was named 18th man, the Knights have steadily had money come in on them to where they currently sit as 3.5-point favourites. If both teams were at full strength, I’d make the Bulldogs a very slight favourite, and given they are missing both Matt Burton and Stephen Crichton, the movement towards the Knights seems a logical one to me. I would lean towards the Knights covering this one try spread, however I don’t have enough of an edge to make a bet here.
As for the total, it opened 44.5, where it has been bet down slightly to 43.5. This is where I see some value for Friday night, with my fair total some way short of 43.5. Whilst betting unders last week would have been a disaster, it seems like the markets have reacted heavily to results from last week. These teams have both been defensive juggernauts this season, with the Bulldogs (17ppg) and Knights (19ppg) both in the top 5 teams defensively. Whilst the weather is predicted to be horrible over the weekend in Sydney, Friday night in Newcastle may not be quite as bad. However, there’s a chance there is rain and moderate winds, which should help with the under here.
This week, unless you can find a real edge, is not the week to use too much of your bankroll. Small bets during the Origin period, before we ramp things up towards the end of the season.
Under 43.5 Points
$1.98 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Under 43.5 Points – See above.
B Wilson (1+ try) – Wilson scored 6 tries in 11 games last season and will play outside Jacob Kiraz who is an incredibly good centre at getting his outside winger open. The Knights concede 39% of their tries through their left edge defence.
G Marzhew (1+ try) – The Dogs right side defence is the place to attack and given the change on that side with Kiraz moving to centre and Wilson playing his first game this season, I like the Knights to attack that side of the field.
SGM Odds: $11.60 at Neds
