Sunday afternoon NRL kicks off in the Hunter, as the Brisbane Broncos head to McDonald Jones Stadium to take on the Knights in a very winnable road game for the depleted Broncos. With the Knights needing a win to stay off the bottom of the ladder, and the Broncos looking to push towards a top 4 finish, there’s plenty on the line in what feels like a lopsided game of football.
Ben Bridge brings you his preview and best bets for this clash below and if you’re keen to play along, simply join Neds via this link!
Knights vs Broncos Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 25
Will Old Boys’ Day be Enough to Inspire the Home Side?
The Knights have now lost six straight, the longest losing streak in the NRL, and for mine they are the worst team in the competition right now. In their past three games, they have lost by an average margin for 32 points, conceding 44, 48, and 38 points in those matchups. They are a team that looks ready for the season to end. However, they have one more home game, and that is this weekend, in what is ‘Old Boys Day’ for the club. If the team aren’t inspired by the past champions of this team, then I don’t know what will inspire them, and a big loss here in front of a likely packed house could spell the end of the Adam O’Brien era in Newcastle.
Last week, the Knights got a kinder opponent than they had faced over the earlier two rounds, as they headed north to take on the struggling Cowboys. It didn’t take long for the Cowboys to find their groove, as they hammered the Knights 38-4 to further heap pressure on the coaching staff and players alike. There were not many bright spots, however Dom Young has looked fresh since coming back to Newcastle, and last week he ran for 181 metres, scoring a try, broke the line three times, and busted seven tackles, in an impressive performance. The Knights just don’t have the cattle, and their spine looks like it belongs in reserve grade. A tough final three weeks seems likely here.
Broncos Pushing for the Final Top 4 Spot
The Broncos come in off the back of a crucial win last week over the Dolphins, in their first game after the losses of Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam and Selwyn Cobbo. It put the Broncos back in the top 4 conversation, as they now sit just two points outside the top 4, and with a much better for and against than the Warriors, the Broncos still have a slight chance at sneaking into the top 4.
The opening 50 minutes of their matchup last week against the Dolphins was a cracking back-and-forth battle, with neither team managing to score consecutive tries until the Dolphins did it to start the second half, pushing their lead to 28-14 after 50 minutes. But it was the Broncos who romped home, scoring four tries in 15 minutes to storm home and win 38-28 in a result that will have massive ramifications for both teams moving forward.
Reece Walsh was at his best for the Broncos, running for 249 metres, scoring a try, setting up another, and busting 12 tackles. He truly had spiders on him last week, and he looks to be a massive part of the Broncos push for a top 4 spot.
Knights vs Broncos Recent History
The Broncos have been dominant over the last four seasons, winning five in a row over the Knights, who had previously been on a four-game winning streak of their own prior to the Broncos 35-22 victory in round 25 in 2021. The Knights haven’t managed a win at McDonald Jones Stadium over the Broncos since 2019, so the Broncos will have no concerns visiting the Hunter.
In their last matchup over a year ago, the Knights hosted the Broncos in round 20 of the 2024 NRL season. The Broncos closed 6.5-point road favourites, with a high total of 49.5. With the game taking place after Origin, the Broncos brought all their Origin stars back in off an extended bench, and were simply too good for the Knights, easing to a 30-14 victory. Ezra Mam was massive for the road team, running for over 200 metres, setting up a try and scoring his own, whilst Deine Mariner proved impossible to stop, scoring two tries, breaking the line three times, and busting 11 tackles. It was a dominant win for the Broncos, with the Knights scoring two of their three tries in the last 15 minutes to make the score slightly more respectable.
Knights to Continue Their Unders Dominance
The Broncos were slated as 4.5-point road favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as massive 8.5-point favourites, quite the jump in the market. It’s quite easy to see why, with the market potentially downgrading the Broncos too much with the losses of Reynolds and Mam, and also the fact that you have to downgrade the Knights based off their last few performances. The number has now jumped all the way to Broncos -10.5, which is exactly my number for this contest. I still believe there’s room for this number to move, with the fact the game is at Newcastle on Old Boys’ Day the only thing from giving me hesitation in smashing the Broncos 13+ button. The Knights have covered just 6 of 16 games this season as an underdog, whilst the Broncos have been ok as favourites, covering 9 of 19.
Looking towards the total, and it opened 48.5 and has been bet down heavily to 45.5. With my fair number of 41.5 for a total, I fully agree with this move. Based on the above, right now is the wrong time to be entering either of these markets, and this is a great lesson is betting markets early in the week before they have a chance to move. Having a Broncos -4.5 and under 48.5 bet in pocket would feel incredibly good right now. Whilst I do like the Broncos to cover, the bet here has to be on the under. There has been torrential rain all week in Newcastle, and despite the weather clearing slightly over the weekend, conditions will still be tough, and I’ll take the under here. The Knights have been the second heaviest unders team this season, behind only the Rabbitohs, playing 16 unders in their 21 games.
Under 46.5 points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Knights vs Broncos Player Prop Bet: Karapani to Give the Knights Fits
Our Best Prop Bet: Karapani 1+ Try
Seven tries in seven games for Karapani this season, and coming up against one of the worst defensive wingers in the game in Dom Young should prove a great spot to be. Back Karapani in for a try here.
Josiah Karapani (1+ try)
$1.77
Same Game Multi: Knights vs Broncos
Leg 1: Under 46.5 – See best bet.
Leg 2: J Karapani (1+ try) – See Best Prop Bet.
Leg 3: D Young (1+ try) – For all his defensive frailties, Young has proved already at the Knights that he is still one of the most potent finishers in the game. Against the weaker Broncos left edge, I expect a try here for Dom.
SGM Odds: $7.50 at Dabble
Knights vs Broncos Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday, 24th August 2025
Location: McDonald Jones Stadium - Newcastle
Time: 2:00pm AEST
Weather: Fine, 18 degrees
Odds: Knights ($3.50) vs Broncos ($1.30)
Line: Broncos (-11.5)
Points: 46.5
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2025 NRL season, so make sure to head over to out NRL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all our free content.
Where to Watch Knights vs Broncos
Watch the Knights vs Broncos match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
Tail our Knights vs Broncos Tips at Neds!
Not familiar with Neds? Check out our full Neds review here, or by clicking the banner below.
