Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Kensington (Randwick) and Sandown Lakeside on Wednesday, April 3rd.
Sandown is currently a Soft 5 but should improve into the Good range, while Kensington is a Soft 6, but I'd expect that to improve too.
We've picked out our best bets for each track below!
Pinup Miss was well-backed on debut at Warwick Farm in a race that has turned out to be very strong. Fasika was the winner of the race, and that filly has since come out and won dominantly again. Pinup Miss settled near the back of the field and worked home strongly into 3rd. I wouldn't be shocked to see a change of tactics today to have her settle closer to the speed, especially with the blinkers going on for the first time and the wide draw. In any case, I think she'll be very hard to hold out here and I'd rather be taking $2.75 for her than $2.25 for Word For Word.
This race is a bit of a nightmare but I'm going to play very small on a couple at odds. Gentle Annie is the rank outsider of the field at $21. I think we'll get a better price than that on the day. She was beaten over 4L first up at Albury, so it's easy to see why she's unfancied here, but she typically improves sharply second and third up. All of her form is in Canberra or country NSW but from the inside barrier, she might be able to run a cheeky race with that run under her belt. This race really isn't packed with quality either. Red Chandelier looks to have come back in decent order this prep. She was good first and second up, and followed those with a win third up at Warwick Farm over 1400m. She then stepped up to 1900m on Heavy ground in Group 3 company at Rosehill (a very odd placement) and finished last. She didn't get any luck in the run but she was outlcassed anyway. Back onto firmer ground, Hugh Bowman takes over the reigns, draws well and comes back in distance. She's not a horse that wins out of turn but she finds a race she can be competitive in. Something small on both but won't be breaking the bank - it's a poor race.
Another race that looks quite confusing on paper and again, I'll just be playing small on a couple at odds here. I mean, the fact Screamarr is the $4.40 favourite tells you all you need to know about the race. Raqeeq is surely up to better races than this? He's a Saturday winner over 2000m but since that performance he's done very little, and has started hard in the market in just about every run. So he's definitely a money-muncher. He was beaten 5L first up but he never runs well fresh, however he does go alright second up. He's never missed a place in four attempts when second up and if the track improves into the Good range, I suspect he can run well here. Big weight, barrier 15 and Brenton Avdulla are all concerns (you'd think Bowman would be riding, is my point), but I'll take the $8.50 anyway. Another Waller horse is Bajan Gold. He's had two runs in Australia; first up he was OK at best and second up he just didn't go in the heavy ground. He also copped a very ordinary steer. Third up, down in class, back on firmer ground and drawn better in barrier 3, he could improve out of sight. King Viv is another that could outrun his $21 quote. He pulled up lame last start and raced on wet ground in his two starts prior, which he just isn't effective on. Back on firmer ground, four-week break coming into this and the blinkers go back on. Watch the market. Notably, Bowman doesn't ride for Waller here. He instead rides equal-favourite Boomtown Rat. Backing Raqeeq and Bajan Gold, possibly a nickel King Viv.
Full Of Recognition went to Newcastle for an easy kill last start after placing behind Classique Legend and Green Aeon in two starts prior. He proved much too good for the opposition and won comfortably. Back to midweek metropolitan company now and drawn well in barrier 3. On what we've seen so far, he should be very competitive. I think the play is to back him and save on Ligulate, who won over this distance at Warwick Farm last start in this class. Carries extra weight today but draws well and the stable are obviously flying.
Bit of a mucky little race but I think Arty Lucas can win first up. He broke his maiden over this distance last prep and went on to be competitive in better races. I have a few reservations about a few of the horses he lines up against here and it's also an apprentices race, with most of the jockeys based in other states. The best apprentice in this field is Ethan Brown and he also has the benefit of knowing how to ride the Lakeside course. He's booked on Arty Lucas and that's a big positive. I'll probably have a saver on Chorus who looks the obvious leader in the race. I think Kate Witten will just take him to the front from the inside gate and try to run them into the ground. He's won three of his last four and although they've been in the country, it's more form than some of the others have got.
Pretty keen on Scramjet here, who has been absolutely dominant in two career starts to date. It's an awkward sort of speedmap but he might even be able to get over and sit third on the rail if things go his way. We've seen him take a sit and we've seen him lead all the way, so he's versatile in that respect. The horse that ran 4th to him last start, beaten 7.3L, has since come out and won his next start, which is a good sign for the strength of the form. Obviously Waller's Adana will be hard to beat. He didn't have any luck in the Australian Guineas two starts back and then just battled in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes last start. Drops in trip back to the mile and will go close. I think the blowout chance and clear value in the race is Nacar at $21. He's only got one career win to his name, but he's placed in all three starts when second up from a spell and had no luck at all first up. He's also never missed a place at this distance. Damien Oliver takes over the ride and the stable is going very well. Looks over the odds.
Analytica won his maiden on debut at Donald and that race has already produced a subsequent winner. He led, which is quite unusual for Patrick Payne horses but a good sign coming into a race on the Lakeside course, where they often crawl in front and sprint home. Craig Williams takes over the ride from Mitch Aitken and no one rides the Lakeside course better than Williams at the moment. He put on an absolute clinic last Wednesday and he's a notable jockey booking for this horse. I think he can come to town and win again. Shandy is a value chance at double figure odds and Debate isn't hopeless.
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