Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Kensington (Randwick) on Wednesday, June 26th.
There's seven races on today's card, with the track rated a Heavy 10 and the rail out 5m. It's obviously a very wet track so it's important to look for those capable of handling the conditions.
We've previewed the entire meeting, with tips and comments for every race below.
Kensington Racing Tips: Wednesday, June 26th
Best Bet: Race 2 - (3) Olorin
Best Value Bet: Race 7 - (8) Breakdance
Race 1
This looks a much more competitive race than the market suggests. (4) Rotator comes up the $2.30 favourite here. She went down as the $1.65 favourite last start and has now run 2nd in three of her four career starts. I reckon this is a fairly deep race with a few differing form lines, so I'd be very reluctant to jump into that price today. The other thing I find a bit odd is the jockey change, with Glyn Schofield replacing Jason Collett. Collett instead rides one of the other Waller runners, (6) Royal Marine. That catches my eye and he makes his debut here after three trials, the latest of which he won on heavy ground. $7.50 looks a decent price for him. (3) Mandirigma won over 900m on debut at Newcastle following three successive winning trials. This is obviously much harder and the step up from 900m to 1150m isn't ideal, but Blake Shinn is a notable jockey booking. Three horses out of that race at Newcastle have already come out and won. (2) Warfare broke through over 1200m at Gosford last start and definitely has race fitness on his side. I'd be playing this race one fo two way - either lay Rotator at the price for something small, or back a couple of the others around $7+ with small stakes. Royal Marine and Mandirigma are probably the two that appeal most.
Also backing: (3) Mandirigma $7.00
Race 2
There's really only two I'm interested in here. Quite keen to back the Godolphin runner on debut (3) Olorin. He's had just one trial but it was good enough and he's bred to handle the conditions of today's track. Blake Shinn takes the ride and he should prove hard to beat. (8) Skyann was a horse I backed first up but he sat three-wide without cover and dropped out badly. He's been back to the trials where he was given a good hitout on the heavy ground and he might just be the value at $8.00.
Race 3
Pretty ugly betting race. (6) Stella Sea Sun goes on top but mainly by default. She ran 2nd here at this track over 1400m last start but didn't get a lot go her way during the run. She was slow away, setlled 4th and then came wide from the 700m mark of the race. Shinn goes on today and if she can jump a bit cleaner she should be right in the finish again. (1) Chapelco will probably get some of my money again, because if he wins today after I've backed him at huge odds every start this prep, it will be sickening. He's back to midweek company after racing in Saturday company most of this prep, and also back to a BM70 from BM78 grade last start. Tim Clark is the most positive jockey booking he's had all prep so perhaps he can be a bit more competitive today. (4) Watchdog will be competitive as he always is but he's now won just twice from 15 starts, whereas Stella Sea Sun has three wins and four placings from seven starts, hence I've leant her way. I think the horse to potentially follow out f the race will be (2) Cyber Intervention, but I think 1300m first up will be a touch sharp for him.
Race 4
(8) Kaapfever is a bit of a non-winner but he looks a decent each way bet in this race (more on the place). He's placed in four of his past five runs and I think he'll relish this heavy ground today. He's yet to race on a heavy track but he's placed in six of his eight starts on soft ground and that's much better than his record on good ground. He's got NZ breeding all through him and so the wetter could be the better for him. The form behind Loveisili isn't bad either for a race like this. (12) Shangani Patrol could be worth another go. I backed him last start and although he was disappointing, it might be worth backing him again on the heavy track today. He's run top two in his two previous starts on heavy ground. (9) No Money No Honey is in good form in Melbourne and can bring that here.
Value: (12) Shangani Patrol $13
Race 5
(9) High Low Bet is a winner of one race from 13 starts and is a $4.80 chance here, which tells you all you need to know about the race, but I've got her on top today. Her only win came on soft ground and this is the first time in her career she's raced on heavy ground, which I think she'll really appreciate. The issue for her is she tends to get a long way back in her races, which isn't ideal on the Kenso track, and Glyn Schofield is a hard jockey to catch. (10) One Fire Beach isn't hopeless at odds, while (2) I'm Pretty Strong is the interesting runner on Australian debut, having formerly raced in America.
Race 6
Tough to split the first few in betting. Predicting this might be run at a decent tempo with (1) Echo Gem leading and (6) Southern Romance sitting outside her. Echo Gem's been in good form her past two starts and I don't think she'll have to work as hard for the lead today but the query is just how much pressure she cops when she gets there. She carries the full 61kg today and steps up to 1400m, so she's up against it. Southern Romance comes off a maiden win over this track and distance, where she won by 2.5L. She should be able to handle the rise in class here and she's third up this prep so should be ready to peak. That makes her hard to beat. If they do overdo it up front, the swooper could be the stablemate (3) Seles. She won a BM70 over 1300m at Warwick Farm last start and comes into this third up. She ran against Echo Gem first up and was held up most of the straight. Gets in 2.5kg better at the weights today so might have her measure with even luck. Only query is getting too far back on the Kenso. (2) Tycoon Street isn't hopeless at $9.00.
(6) Southern Romance
$3.40
Race 7
(8) Breakdance didn't get any luck first up here on the Kenso when beaten 1.7L by (7) The Party Girl. She was ridden by 3kg apprentice Mikayla Weir and was taken to the rear from the wide barrier, but from there never really got clear running. Jason Collett replaces the apprentice today in a big jockey change and she did place on heavy ground back in New Zealand. Expect her to run well at each way odds today. (1) Dalmatia Prince drops back to midweek company after two runs in Saturday grade to open his prep. His third up record is reasonably good with four top-two finishes from six starts and he has placed three times from five starts on heavy ground. Drawn awkwardly with 59kg here but not hopeless at the odds.
Value: (1) Dalmatia Prince $11
