Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Randwick Kensington on Wednesday, August 26th.
We've got a strong midweek program on the Kenso on Wednesday, with a number of exciting horses stepping out and seven very competitive betting races. For the first time in a long time, we're racing on a Good 4 track for a metro meeting in Sydney, with the rail in the true position.
Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card with his tips and best bets below!
Randwick Racing Tips: Wednesday, August 26th
Best Bet: Race 4 – (5) Kingsheir
Best Value: Race 6 – (4) Greenspan
This is a guessing game to open the day. (3) Stelvio has run 2nd in three barrier trials and makes his debut today. I thought his trials have been OK and if someone like JMac was riding this horse today, it would be half the price. He’s a big horse so barrier 6 is good as it should allow him clear galloping room. I think he’ll continue to drift and represents a decent price. (5) Yiyi won her first trial this prep, and the form out of that has been decent. She was given a very quiet time of things in her most recent outing. Barrier 9 means she’s likely to go back near the rear but we’re getting a decent enough price to back her at around $14. (1) Game Theory ran well on debut on a day where you had to lead to win at Warwick Farm. He can improve with a fairer track today. (7) Psychic deserves plenty of respect for Waller/McDonald and has already been $9 into $5.
Another very tough race with plenty of chances. Les Bridge should have had a winner at Randwick on Saturday with Seasons, and I’m tipping him to go close here with (4) Legend I Am. He makes his debut having been to the trials just once, where he led throughout to score by 1.3L. Les Bridge has a great record on the Kenso (and on the Randwick course proper), with six top-two finishes from 11 runners last season. Kerrin McEvoy trialled the horse but was committed to ride Stelvio if he lined up, leaving Glen Boss to pick up the ride today. I think $6.50 is a good each way bet here. (1) I Am Swerving placed behind Prague and then started favourite in G3 company last prep. He resumes from a spell here and the stable has a 22% strike rate on the Kenso, so expect a forward showing from him. (5) Malkovich has won his two trials this time in by a combined margin of 12.3L. It’s always a query when horses win by that big a space whether they can reproduce it under raceday pressure, but he can’t have been more impressive. Josh Parr has ridden two winners from three rides for Bjorn Baker this season and he goes on. Tactics will be interesting given there is some speed drawn inside him. (2)Wuddacuddashudda wuddacuddashudda won on debut at Newcastle. He was caught three-wide the trip in a field of four and was beaten 0.1L. Again, tactics will be interesting with him from barrier 12 but there’s a reason they’re bringing him to the city despite that defeat at Newcastle on debut. He looks the value in the race at $18.
(6) Criaderas is undefeated from two career starts and he resumes from a spell today. His victories have come at Newcastle and Kembla, so he tackles city grade for the first time, but he looks up to the grade and JMac goes straight on for his first up assignment. (9) On The Lead is undefeated from two starts this preparation, both at Kembla. There is a slight query here in the rise from 1000m to 1250m but he does draw well in barrier 1 and he’s tactically versatile. (3) Beach Baby was well supported first up but failed badly in the conditions. Respect the SP for that race as the firm ground can see him improve sharply.
I’m really quite keen on (5) Kingsheir here. He was impressive on debut at Newcastle and came straight to town where he started a very heavily-backed $1.50 favourite at Warwick Farm last start. He was beaten 3.6L into 3rd, but completely rule a line through that run. That was a day where you had to lead and be on the rail at Warwick Farm, and he settled outside the lead and struggled, much like a lot of other horses in that spot throughout the day. Back onto firm ground and at his home deck where the stable have a good record, I suspect he’s going to come out and atone for that defeat. We get $2.70 today as opposed to the $1.50 he was sent around last start, so the price could prove luxurious. (1) Badoosh actually raced on the same day as Kingsheir at Warwick Farm in a separate 1400m race. His winning time was quicker than the winning time of the Kingsheir race. He jumped straight to the lead (no tactics change of course) and was left alone in front before skipping away to win by 4.3L. As mentioned, that was the day at Warwick Farm where it was a huge advantage to lead on the rail, so he got blessed with the run he had, along with the mind-boggling tactics of some of those in behind him. (7) Easy Campese continues to improve with each start and can go well. This is a steeper task than what he’s been tackling at the provincials but he’s capable of midweek grade I think. (8) Song And A Prayer put in an improved performance at Newcastle at her first run in eight weeks. Granted, it was easier opposition than what she’d been racing against, but it was an encouraging run and she does have the ability at this level. The draw gives her a chance at double figure odds.
(2) Big Parade makes his stable debut for Mark Newnham today, having previously raced for Clare Cunningham. He’s undefeated from two starts when first up from a spell and ran 2nd to Kordia in Listed company at just his second career start. At his best, he’d be very hard to beat here and his trials suggest he’s returned in good order, so if Tom Sherry can get him to the front without spending too much petrol, he should be too good. I think the blowout in the race is the rank outsider (4) Red Notice at $61. He’s another horse that’s had a stable change, now with Mitch Newman. He’s got a good first up record with two wins and two placings from five starts, and all his best racing has been on firm ground, so he will get conditions to suit. The stable is yet to have a metropolitan winner, so the price is understandable, but he could run a cheeky race fresh at the huge quote. CJ Graham takes the ride and she’s had three winners from six rides for the stable. (5) Juan Diva was beaten less than a length first up when favourite at Canterbury. Zakat has already come out of that race and won a Saturday race so that’s a good sign for the form. Draws well and should go close. (8) Quatum won on debut at Warwick Farm and then ran last when well in the market last start at Randwick. Wary of him.
Value: (4) Red Notice $61
Three horses I’ll be backing here. (4) Greenspan has been beaten 6L and 9L in his first two runs back from a spell but I’m expecting sharp improvement from him today. He’s had 11 starts first and second up from a spell but has never won, however he’s had four starts when third up from a spell for three wins and a 2nd placing. He’s had 10 starts on wet ground for just one minor placing, and his first to runs back have been on rain-affected ground, which explains why he’s been beaten so far. He has four wins and four placings from 12 starts on good tracks, so he finds the right conditions at the right stage of his preparation to execute a complete form reversal today. Drawn a bit sticky in gate 11 but $34 looks a good price and I’ve made him my best value bet of the day. The other horse capable of a form turnaround is (3) Coterie who gets the eye-catching booking of James McDonald today. He’s only had 10 rides for Gerald Ryan in the past 12 months, resulting in five wins and two placings, so when he’s booked for this stable, they normally go very well. He comes here second up from a spell and draws well in barrier 4 so expect a good run at $12. Finally, (10) Blesk won well first up before failing at Kembla last start. He comes to the Kenso track today, where John O’Shea has a 31% strike rate. He gets blinkers on for the first time so he could atone for his last-start defeat and is $7.00 to do so. Something on Greenspan and Coterie as my main bets in the race.
Also backing: (3) Coterie $12
This is a two-horse race for mine. (4) Archanna is the three-quarter sister to The Autumn Sun and she could be something special. Her debut win when completely unwanted in betting at Warwick Farm was breathtaking, however she failed to replicate it when an odds-on favourite at her second start. She was sent straight for a spell and returns today with one trial under the belt. Unsurprisingly JMac rode her in that and sticks with her today. The little box she still has to tick is whether she can do it on a firm track as her debut win was on heavy ground. If she handles it, she looks the one to beat. (7) Instant Attraction didn’t come up last preparation but her form from the prep prior to that was solid. Her trials this time in have been very good – most recently closing in nicely in the same trial as Seasons, who should have won on Saturday. Drawn wide so will need to come from a long way back, but as mentioned above, John O’Shea strikes at 31% at this track so she should be right in the finish. At $2.70 and $7.50 respectively you can have something on both.
Value: (7) Instant Attraction $7.50
