The rain has come and we face some pretty heavy conditions across the Eastern States on Wednesday. The Horse has factored in the wet conditions and the potential scratchings to find the two best bets from Sandown and Warwick Farm.
Remember, for full race-by-race previews of Sandown, Warwick Farm and Pinjarra, head to our horse racing website at racingbet.com.au!
Not making the same mistake today and backing (7) Ord after four consecutive places. The form of the race favourite (9) Tycoon Bucks just looks to be a little classier than the others. Specifically the second place last start behind Rising Sphere (which looked to be her best run to date). The step up to 1200 metres that day was a positive, and she stays at that distance. The other consistent factor is Jamie Kah (I am starting to consider ignoring race form and just backing Kah all day, every day). This race just sets up nicely, and Kah is more than likely to start the day off in style. Unfortunately the early price of $3.50 is gone—but happy to take what’s on offer.
Arguably the best bet of the day across all tracks is (5) Duke Of Neworleans (despite the owner’s incorrect spelling of New Orleans). The Matt Laurie trained son of Hallowed Crown won first-up at Geelong (on Heavy) by 8 lengths. He would need to drop off pretty severely not to well within scope here.
The risk is something else peaking suddenly on Heavy going—and if there are any, (7) Goolagong Rose and (3) Helavabel look the most likely.
Pretty comfortable to take the short odds here—and early before the scratchings make a mockery of the field.
The favourite (7) Flexible was just beaten by the surprise winner Fifteen Aria last outing. That race was held at this track over 1300 metres (on Soft going). Today the Cummings trained Godolphin runner drops back to1200 metres, which bodes well for her increasing fitness. Rachel King stays in the saddle and she gains a pretty handy inside draw.
We can expect the leaders (6) Dreamline & (2) All That Sass to cross her allowing her a comfortable run in transit; however she’ll need the split to come.
The likes of (8) Good Omens will be on her outside and attempt to get away first.
The unraced (1) Adulting has trialed well and looks the biggest danger.
By the time we get to the final race on the card there will be every chance the track is racing against the leaders (unless of course they are drifting out to the best part of the track). And it’s on this hope that the Waterhouse/Bott (2) Escaped goes on top. Christian Reith should be able to lead comfortable from the inside draw and drag them around the Farm. Once they level out hopefully he finds the nice part of the track, and if he does, the Exceed And Excel gelding may be very tough to get by. He has had 8 starts for 3 wins and 2 places, with 3 on Heavy (for 1 win and 1 place). The conditions may work to his favour, despite the average second-up form and heavy weight.
The runner with the best weight relative to class is (16) Blondeau for the Waller stable. Tommy Berry has the ride and despite only having one win to his name, the I Am Invincible gelding will put in a good show. Third last start in this and has some decent Soft form.
The one at odds is the last start winner (2) Exceltic who came home from tenth with a wet sail to grab Accelerato. The sting out of the ground suits, and at $17 he looks a good each-way play if you’re keen for something with value.
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