There are some quality mid-week races being held today at Caulfield, Warwick Farm & Canberra this Wednesday, the 13th of January. ‘The Horse’ has found the best bets across the meetings to keep the returns ticking over.
There are two main chances here over the 1100 metres, and my decision making process is being swayed by the odds. (2) All Stardom ran very well in a maiden over 1100 metres, leading all the way except over the line, beaten by two good horses (one of which goes around next race). The winner was Itsourtime. The times were pretty slick, but the three leaders were taking each other on. The most impressive part was All Stardom had to work hard to gain the lead, running three wide for much of the first half of the race. Jamie Kah gets the booking which only builds my confidence, and the inside draw looks ideal.
What can we say about (3) Master Bartholdi … 6 starts for 5 places, including three consecutive 2nds. We’ve been backing him with little reward, and he looks to have found another race where there is one better. Last start he was beaten by As I Please who we backed earlier this week for another subsequent win. That form looks better than $6.00, so something as a saver is in order (and if we jump off now you know what’ll happen).
If you like All Stardom in the previous, you have to support (4) Just Malcolm here. They come out of that same race beaten by the slightest margin by Itsourtime. He split the two runners for a 2nd place, and backs up here over the slighter longer distance. If All Stardom goes out and pants them, then jump on Just Malcolm. Similarly to All Stardom he started well and worked hard to get a position. He even got bumped and eased back after missing a stride. He recovered and fought hard to take the lead before being beaten. His run was even better than All Stardom.
The Kent/Price runner (2) I’m Thunderstruck ran well in a jump out, so we should expect him to run well here. While (7) Palace Whisper can improve second-up and (1) Beast could be the one at odds.
There is some value to be found in this race, the BM70 over 1200 metres. (3) Seven Castles has some nice second-up form and has already been racing in this grade. Lindsay Smith leaves Laura Lafferty in the saddle, giving her a great chance of a metro mid-week win. She has been riding well, and she’ll mix it with the best of them. He has raced 11 starts over the distance for 4 wins and 2 places, with his best work on Good conditions.
The Dabernig/Hayes horse (8) Zoushack goes up in grade after a solid win at Sandown. With Damian Lane in the saddle, he has every chance to get another one. However, it is the first-up statistics of (9) Charleise that appeals here. She has had 3 starts for 2 wins and 1 place, she has Mark Zahra in the saddle, gets her pet distance fist-up, won a trial leading into this, drops down in grade, and gets a favourable draw where Zahra should find a nice spot in running. She has the pace to lead, but with the pace on the inside, he may drop in behind one-out one-back.
This is an interesting race, with the two Bjorn Baker runners heading the market. (6) Rosina Kojonup is 2 from 5, but really failed to make much of an impression last preparation. The short quote doesn’t look justified on that form (albeit in higher grades). Pretty keen to risk her, despite her first-up and track statistics looking solid. His other runner is the favourite (7) Able Hill. Able Hill’s first-up run was pretty good, and he looks like he could improve and go on with it, so he is the pick from the two. Of course the stable would have a sense of which runner has been going the best at the stable, so watch the market.
The one at odds which I think can be in the finish is (3) Shadow Bridge for the Mark Newnham stable. His third-up form is not great, but in 14 starts he has won 3 and placed 4 times. Good or Soft tracks are equally favourable. He draws the outside barrier which means all the speed is on his inside, and he is going to have to accept an off-pace role (unless they burn him early). So a few queries, but worth a saver.
(2) Lunar Tramp is capable but gets a sticky draw.
Looks like a Chris Waller special here, with three runners all from the stable. (2) Mubariz comes here after a win in the same grade, but in Heavy going. His overall record is good in all conditions, so we can be confident of another solid performance. Like many Waller runners, he doesn’t win back-to-back, but not willing to count him out of the place money.
The next one is (3) Wairere Falls who drops back in grade from BM78 after placing behind Snowfire. His form looks a little classier than the stable mate, and he looks ready for a win. He likes the sting out of the ground, so conditions suit. Best of all, he is paying 50% more than Mubariz in the market. The final Waller runner is (4) Spokesman who looks out of depth here. The interesting thing is the jockey selection; Tommy Berry won on Mubariz last start. But he gets off allowing Kathy O’Hara to take the ride, while picking up the ride on Wairere Falls. You would think he had the choice of the horse here. It’s a lead worth considering.
In the meantime, (6) Azarmin is also up to this, and could upset the stacked Waller deck.
Mathew Dale has two runners in this one. The favourite (1) Nuremburg Castle placed 3rd in a Randwick Highway last start, prior placing in two races in Canberra. The form looks pretty good for a CL1 with only 8 starters. Heni Ede takes the ride getting a 2kg claim. His other runner (2) Clem Fandango has already won this preparation, but looks to be the slightly inferior horse. Nuremburg gets the wide gate, but at Canberra that’s not a bad thing, and he is a get-back horse—so we can expect him to run on down the home straight.
The threat is (3) Jobkeeper—only in Canberra. This is where we insert a comment about Jobkeeper being likely to be cut off early, found to be lame, and weighing in light. Thanks ScoMo.
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