Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Tuesday, September 29th.
After tipping three winners from his four selections on debut last week, The Horse is back with another set of bets for today's racing at Grafton and Swan Hill! Check out his preview and tips below!
Horse Racing Tips: Tuesday, September 29th
Grafton Race 1 (Market)
(1) Helmet Head has been improving each run and was unlucky not to win last time out at Grafton. The 1720 metres may have been a touch too far—in fact if he hadn’t wandered around in running he may have got the job done. The son of Helmet is no doubt hitting peak fitness and comes up against a pretty ordinary bunch here. He has three places all on Good tracks which he should get again. This is one of those races where it is a process of elimination—the only real threat looks to be (2) Lookonchina who ran on well last start at Coffs Harbour placing behind Furphy who is another top pick running today. Prior to that run he was fourth behind a pretty handy leading run by Sharpay Ruler (who I expect to go onto better races). If there is improvement to come from Lookonchina he could get the prize. The question will be the distance jumping up from 1315 metres. While I am comfortable with Helmet Head on top—they are the two clear top picks—so at the same time the quinella looks very gettable for anyone wanting to play exotics.
Quinella (1) Helmet Head & (2) Lookonchina
The suspiciously branded (4) Furphy has taken a while to break the maiden but ran on well last start to get the prize. He had been peppering away a couple of recent placings and there is potential for further improvement. Most importantly his win showed a nice little burst of speed to run on nicely. He gets out slightly in distance which shouldn’t make any difference. The question is the surface with his best coming on Soft tracks. Gate 6 should place him somewhere on-speed where he can hopefully show that same burst when called upon. Furphy goes on top as an each-way play considering the number of chances in the race—and the fact that $6.50/$2.30 is much more interesting than the $2.60 for the favourite (2) Maspoeta who should find this race a touch easier. On my read however the biggest threat comes from (5)Lettemgo who also moved out of maiden grade last run—winning by one length after a sustained run down the centre of the track. It has come in from $16 into $7 in early markets so the good price is well and truly gone. The overs were well worth taking in this field—the bookies got that one wrong. (1) Could You be Loved may be value also at around $12. I am unconvinced about the other runners.
Swan Hill Race 6 (Market)
Waterhouse & Bott have one runner appearing today which is (11) Pierro Rose. Admittedly it has not shown a lot in nine attempts winning once and placing twice. It did compete in a Group 3 race in March this year—albeit coming in thirteenth from fifteen runners behind the winner Asiago. The stable obviously think a little more of the horse than the BM50 which is its only win. If they are serious about racing the mare in better company it should be competitive in this race. There are a few others who have semi-decent form including (3) Major Gowen who is down in grade after placing in a BM64 and gets the claim of Lachlan Neindorf. (2) The Enzo raced (6) I’ll Be Gone in their previous meeting when the former was favourite but the latter got the prize. The Enzo is a $5.00 runner here while I’ll Be Gone is around $14. Seems like an incorrect price differential. Happy to take something small on I’ll Be Gone at that price in anticipation of a repeat performance.
Also backing: (6) I'll Be Gone $14
Swan Hill Race 8 (Market)
(7) Miss Mitzie comes into this race after a maiden win over 1200 metres. The drop back in distance is not a concern and may even work in her favour. She led in the run and was too strong winning by over one length. The claim of Madison Lloyd is a nice little bonus—while the gate shouldn’t pose too many issues. Of course over this distance it’s an arms race for the front position so she will need to content with the inside runners. The obvious danger is the Austy Coffey trained (3) Warrowie Rose ridden first up by Dean Yendall—beware of Yendall when in country Victoria! Miss Mitzie and Warrowie Rose have met previously with the latter winning the race—notably that was Miss MItzie’s first race and she has obviously come on from that. Austy Coffey has two runners with the second being (1) Tiny Rebel who has been super consistent—and who would look the most likely of the pair if it wasn’t for the booking of Yendall on the other runner. But I could be totally over-thinking this. Either way Miss Mitzie still stays on top.