Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Thursday, July 11th.
The Grafton Cup headlines racing in Australia today and Luke Krahe has previewed the race below, along with his best bets around the country.
(6) Bedtime Stories led all the way to win at Gosford two back to win at 64 grade, she then went to a harder race at Canterbury last time and after beginning awkwardly, never really looked comfortable up on the speed and didn’t finish the race off. She looks suite din this grade from the inside where, if she jumps away with them, should be able to lead and give a sight around here. Look to see how the track is playing over the first two days, if it is advantageous to be on the speed, it is hard to see her getting run down. (10) Sornja may be her main danger, she has versatility and is going for three wins in a row. If the money comes for her late, don’t have her going around a loser.
The feature of the day is the Grafton Cup, it looks an open race on paper and is always one of the great carnivals around the country year in year out. (2) Exoteric has not won this time in but is racing ok, he will find this level more to his liking after tackling harder races of late. He was ok in a Brisbane Cup two starts back then ran on well at Caloundra in the Sunshine Coast Cup last time. He will be giving them a start but handles all conditions and will run on hard. (1) Igraine was the winner of that race, and although he won easily, he was favoured being up on the speed. He jumps 5kg in weight here for this and meets the top pick worse off, if he doesn’t get his own way in front, he will struggle to hold them off.
(12) Malbas was beaten as favourite over the Wagga carnival on debut, he SP’d just into black figures after being well backed and although beaten, wasn’t disgraced. He got back almost last in the run, got very wide when making his run before hitting the line well to only be beaten just under a length. He has had the 5 weeks between runs and although he has to take on the older horses here, there appear to be no stars and he certainly has more upside. He gets a few gear changes and this stable certainly wouldn’t be pitting him out of his age group if he couldn’t handle it.
(7) Avasa doesn’t win out of tur, she has won twice at the track which is a big advantage to have not only run here but won here also. She was well ridden here at the track last time but just wasn’t good enough, she looks better drawn out here where she will be able to work forward early over the short trip and won’t have to rely on luck. She can sit outside the leader, 800m races here at Dalby aren’t exactly a back-marker's paradise so you need to be up on the pace. This looks the easiest field she has taken on in a while.
(1) Dunrody Power has been to the races five times for four placings, the only time he failed to take home a place cheque was on Magic Millions Day in the big maiden when he was single figure odds. She has been off the scene for 17 weeks now but there has been plenty to like about his two recent trials. He won at Hawkesbury in the first of them, then went to Randwick and wasn’t pushed around when chasing them home on a heavy track last time. She has performed well fresh previously in her short career and although she may need longer, the tempo should be strong enough for her to run over the top of them late.
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