Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Thursday, August 15th.
Sale and Newcastle are the two venues in focus this afternoon and Luke Krahe has provided his best bets for each track below.
Some of these have had more than enough chances to break the duck, I am sticking with the 4YO gelding (6) Shepard who is only at start two as he looks to have so much more upside than most of his rivals. He debuted on a heavy track three weeks ago over a mile at Moe, was heavily backed into favourite and narrowly missed. He was well ridden and showed a nice turn-of-foot, he looked like he still has a bit to learn and the margin to third was the real story. It wasn’t a hot field but there was 9 lengths back to the next horse. Sure, he has to jump straight out to the 2238m at start number two but if he is saved for one run at them, he may be too quick. He handles the wet conditions and expect him to settle closer in the run.
(7) High Beam is going to start a really short priced fav here and deservedly so after her tough effort in a much harder race in town last time, but unless taking odds well into the red is your thing, I have found one that should fill a placing behind her. (8) Tugga War won in debut ten was a little enigmatic throughout the rest of her first prep. She resumed at Bairnsdale and looked to be a little underdone, came back in trip last time at Moe in similar conditions and stuck on well to narrowly miss a place in a harder race after racing on the speed. Stepping up in trip off the inside gate, she should be able to lead or get the soft run behind the leader, as long as the fence is not off it is hard to see her not sticking on and grinding out a top 3 finish. She comes back to a 58 and although there is a little speed out wide, I would be very surprised if Brian Park didn’t try to kick up and lead.
(4) Tiomo is lining up for start number 22 today and is still yet to win out of maiden grade. He has had four runs back this prep and all of them have been good, his latest was at Coffs over the carnival where he was up in grade in a Class 2. He was ridden three-wide with cover and although he did have every chance, he stuck on well enough to suggest that back in this grade he should be very hard to beat. I like the fact that he is coming back slightly in trip from the mile and the inside gate should mean that he gets a very economical run. He will appreciate the big track here at Newcastle and should be finishing as good as any. As he is likely to get back and is yet to win out of maiden grade, there will be opposition to him in the market so you should wait until closer to the jump to back him.
(6) Agosto is an import from the Waller yard that has only had one run in Australia, he looks to have a stack of ability on what we saw at Kembla Grange. He was in a small field of 5 and Hughie rode him that day, settled last and was 5-wide approaching the straight. The second horse pinched a break into the straight after a beautiful ride from Avdulla but the class of Agosto came through. He laid in up the straight but once Hughie got him going straight, he was dominant over the last furlong and although the margin was only half a length, it was very comfortable. That was his first run for more than a year, he will take plenty from it and I would be shocked if he doesn’t start in the red.
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