Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Friday, October 4th.
Moruya and Kyneton are our two tracks of interest on Friday afternoon before racing at Moonee Valley kicks in during the evening! Check out Luke Krahe's best bets for the day-time meetings below, and click here for our race-by-race preview and betting tips for tonight's meeting at Moonee Valley!
At the time of writing it is currently a Good 3 at Moruya, but there is rain forecast and I am banking on a down grade. (2) Elegant Ellen has only had one run back this prep and it was in a Highway, she had support from $8 in officially and sat up on the speed. She was beaten off early in the straight but stuck on well, only beaten a length and a half. She drops back to a much more suitable race at a track she is undefeated at, last time she was here she led all the way in another tough performance. She has been runner-up at both second-up runs as she is today and handles the wet well, the rain coming should only assist her. She is drawn in seven which looks ideal, she should carve across and if she finds the bunny or even outside the leader and able to control the tempo, she will be very hard to run down.
(5) Two Seas is another that will benefit if the rain comes, she is a last start winner here at the track on a Heavy 8. She was mid-field in the run before making a sharp move out wide in the better going, hit the front at the 200m and although she looked under pressure, rallied for a narrow win. There was a huge 5.5 lengths back to third that day, also her first go on a rain affected track. She maps beautifully and although she has to step uyp in class, I expect her to be closer in the dun and be too strong. It looks an open race on paper and if she gets to each-way odds, she looks a bet to nothing.
(2) The Great Hans has been to the races three times, all this in his first prep. He has never been on top of the ground which is key for me, all three starts have been on a Soft 7 or worse. HE co0mes through a good form race at the Bool two starts back, then went to Moe last time in a 1200 maiden. He was well back in the run, held-up when the runs came approaching the turn and losing all momentum, before hitting the line well without ever looking the winner. He gets back out in trip in what is a very winnable maiden, he will get back again but I am hoping from the good draw he will be able to settle about mid-field, from there he can pounce. He should be able to show a bit better turn-of-foot back on top of the ground and run over the top of them, he has just been grinding away on the rain affected tracks.
I expect there to be very good money for (11) Overkill, there is currently about 6/4 ($2.50) in the old available at the time of writing, but I can see him starting in the red. He debuted here at the track two weeks ago, was well supported that day and eventually started favourite. He was awkwardly away before sitting three-wide without cover the duration, stuck on doggedly to only be beaten 0.3 lengths after the torrid run. I love the jockey change, Martin Harley off, Ben Melham on, it could be one of the more positive rider changes you will see. Form the good draw I expect him to jump and run, be in front after 100m and run away with the win. He should be in front of his only danger (12) Carmen Santiago early, she ran on well at her last start but if our bloke gets on the bunny early, re-load in the run.
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