Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Friday, July 5th.
Luke Krahe has provided his best bets for Tamworth, Bendigo and Nowra below!
(3) Derby Star showed absolutely nothing when with the Kris Lees barn at four starts across the summer earlier this year, he was sent to the paddock and has been transferred to local star trainer Cody Morgan. He finds a very weak maiden for his first start for the new yard, a recent trial here at the track was very good. He jumped well and sat four-wide on the speed no cover. Although he was given a click up at the 300m mark and a horse went by, he was eased down again soon after and went to the line under a hold whilst still getting past the leaders with ease. Watch for any money for him, they usually get it right with this stable. (10) Sweet Love looks the danger resuming and has trialed well enough, she may just need a bit more time. Happy to take her on unless there is no money at all for Derby Star.
(1) Apache Junction is still yet to win a race out of maiden grade which was 18 months ago at Newcastle, but there have been some positive signs at his last couple. Two back he ran on well enough in a harde race over te Scone carnival, then last time at Muswellbrook in a similar race was hitting the line well in the center of the track but was looking for further. He gets out to the 2100m here, there doesn’t look as much depth and some of these will never win a race. Yes, he is drawn wide but if he gets the right horse to follow mid-field, or even better just behind the leaders, saved for one run he will be too strong against this moderate field. Happy to take on (5) Final Crown, she had every chance at 58-grade at Bathurst last time and has been SP’ing much longer than this. She has to be a big drifter in the betting.
A capacity field at set weight levels for the maiden, (6) Septzento has been ok at his first two starts but I like the map for him here. He has the speed to lead or take a sit, stepping up to the 1400m looks ideal as it won’t be as much of a sit-sprint and more of a sustained speed event. Last time at Donald he sat outside the lead and stuck on well with the leader winning, Clayton Douglas goes on and hopefully he kicks through and holds the front and gets them rolling before the straight. (14) Sweet Venom will also go forward and will contend for the lead, she has a better SP profile but I don’t think she will be able to sit outside our tip and win.
This looks a very open race on paper, (7) Da Deputy should be nearing peak fitness here fourth –up out to the mile and a half. He was held-up at a vital stage on the synthetic track last time, clear at the top of the straight he charged to the line to miss by the narrowest of margins. He was big odds that day in what was the same grade as this, quite often that synthetic form can transfer to the rain-affected turf tracks well. Look for him late. (6) Arohata is the main danger and should be a chop-out, she was super sitting wide on the speed last time, brave in defeat, she wasn’t entitled to stick on was well as she did. She should be on the speed for a long way.
(6) Valachi has to step out of maiden grade for the first time, but wow she was impressive winning at that level last start. She was mid-field on the rails and in a horrible position around Moruya, held-up closer towards the inside well inside the furlong before angling clear and jumping out of the ground to win. She was not entitled to get up from where she was at the 100m mark, she was heavily backed that day and this looks a good stepping stone for her. She led on a heavy track on debut so I expect her to settle closer from the good draw and stepping out in trip.
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