The final day of the English Premier League season sees an epic race for European positions. Only three points separate third place from seventh place, with positions 4th, 5th and 6th all tied on 66 points. It’s set to be an enthralling day to finish the season, and Jack Tobin has you covered with his best bets!
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EPL 2024-25: Matchday 38 Preview & Betting Tips
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
City Ground, Monday 26th May, 1:00am AEST
Nottingham Forest are currently on the outside looking in, but have an opportunity to secure their place in a European competition for the first time in 30 years, and potentially a Champions League place for the first time in 44 years. Forest host fifth placed Chelsea who are just one point ahead of them, with a win securing their place in a European competition. A win for Chelsea would guarantee a place in the Champions League given their significant goal difference advantage over Aston Villa. A loss however would leave them vulnerable to finishing seventh if Aston Villa beat Manchester United.
Chelsea and Nottingham Forest have been two of the best defensive sides in the Premier League, with Chelsea ranking third (43 goals conceded) and Forest ranking sixth (45 goals conceded). They’re two pretty good attacking sides, with both clubs ranking in the top nine for goals for this season. Whilst being solid for the majority of the season, Forest’s defence have fallen away over the last six weeks, failing to record a clean sheet in the last seven league fixtures.
These sides are on opposite runs of form, with Nottingham Forest having won just two of their last seven games, while Chelsea have won four of their last five games. Chelsea’s defence has been critical in this run of form conceding only two goals across those four wins. Nottingham Forest haven’t got an amazing home record, winning just nine of their eighteen home games, and are winless in their last three games at home. Chelsea are red hot at the moment, and will overcome an inexperienced Forest side that hasn’t played in a Premier League game with this much riding on it.
Chelsea to Win
$2.20 (1.5 Units)
Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Old Trafford, Monday 26th May, 1:00am AEST
Aston Villa head to Old Trafford with their Champions League hopes alive, but also at risk of not featuring in the Europa League. A win for Villa would see them secure a Champions League place if either Newcastle or Chelsea fail to win, while a loss would see Unai Emery’s side finish seventh if Nottingham Forest forest win or draw. Manchester United have nothing to play for in what has been the club’s worst ever Premier League season, which was further compounded by their loss in the Europa League Final on Thursday.
Aston Villa will be licking their lips facing this Manchester United side that has not won a Premier League game since March 16, with six losses and two draws since their last win. Compare that to Villa, who have won eight of their last nine league games, including three consecutive wins leading into Matchday 38. It’s been a dominant run of form for Unai Emery’s team, with the aggregate score across those eight wins being 17-2.
The Red Devils have only scored 42 goals this season, the fifth fewest in the Premier League. Old Trafford has not been the intimidating venue it once was, with Manchester United having a woeful 6-3-9 record at home this season. The Red Devils have looked checked out for months, and after the disappointment of Thursday morning’s defeat against Tottenham, it’s impossible to see them bouncing back against a side that is in form and has so much to play for. This could get ugly quickly.
Aston Villa to Win
$1.73 (2 Units)
Newcastle vs Everton
St James’ Park, Monday 26th May, 1:00am AEST
A defeat against Arsenal on matchday 37 has put Newcastle in a must win situation on Monday morning. Barring a massive swing on goal difference, a win will secure Newcastle’s return to the Champions League, however a loss leaves them vulnerable to finishing outside the top five.Fortunately for Eddie Howe’s side, they have an easy kill against 13th placed Everton. Although the Toffees have drastically improved in the second half of the season, they shouldn’t be giving Newcastle many issues.
Everton have been more competitive, however their record against the better sides in the league isn’t great. Against the current top eleven sides in the Premier League is 3-9-9, against the top six it’s even worse with their record being 0-6-5. The main reason they have struggled to compete with good teams is their inability to be dangerous in the front third. Everton have scored 41 goals this season, ranked 17th, with only the three relegation bound teams scoring fewer goals.
Newcastle have had no troubles finding the back of the net this season, ranking as the third most prolific attacking team with 68 goals. Since 2020, Newcastle has enjoyed a 5-2-2 advantage in Premier League games against Everton, while the Toffees haven’t won a league fixture at St James's Park since 2019. A win is the only acceptable outcome for the Magpies, and their front half players will lead them to a convincing win to secure a spot in the Champions League.
Newcastle -1
$1.91 (1 Unit)
