Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Doomben on Saturday, May 30th.
Brisbane racing returns to Doomben this Saturday, a week out from the dual Group 1 meeting which makes up the feature day of the Queensland Winter Carnival. The track at Doomben is rated a soft 5 but with fine weather predicted we may see that upgraded. The rail is in the true position and there are six feature races on the card, which we've covered in detail below!
Best Bet: Race 5 - (4) Celestial Falls
Best Value: Race 6 - (15) Boomtown Lass
Barrier 1 gives (1) Gotta Kiss every hope here but I'll be taking her on at the current $2.40 price. Pretty keen on the $9.00 about (4) Panna Cotta for Mark Newnham and Ryan Maloney. She won first up on the Kensington track at Randwick before finishing 3rd behind unbeaten filly Macroura and Marboosha at Rosehill two weeks ago. Macroura would probably be favourite for this so I think that's a very good form reference. From gate 3, she should be able to find a spot right up on the speed just behind the leaders and that gives her every chance at Doomben. This stable have had two winners from three runners at Doomben so you have to respect them when they turn up in Brisbane. (7) Bellevue Star comes from the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable. She ran 4th in that same race behind Macroura. She should jump and lead, which is advantageous at Doomben, and she's certainly not without a hope at $8.00.
Interesting race set up here because both favourites have drawn wide. (2) Vanna Girl has won five of her eight career starts, including three from three at the distance. She beat Supergiant over this track and distance last start, and Supergiant then came out and won the Gunsynd Classic last weekend. Worth noting that Vanna Girl's last four barrier draws have been 1, 1, 2 and 1. Today she's drawn out in barrier 12. She has won from wide draws in the past, and she's tactically versatile - normally if she draws low she can settle in the front half of the field, but if she draws wide they elect to go back on her, which should be the case here. I'll be taking her on. (1) Rocha Clock draws wide in 14. She's won four from seven overall. She was impressive coming from back in the field to win two starts back, before an admirable runner-up finish behind Dawn Passage last start. She'll need to be good from out there but I think she's pretty smart. I've got (4) Celestial Falls ahead of both of those though. This filly resumed at Randwick with a 0.3L defeat to Soldier Of Love who will start favourite in a race in Sydney today. Behind her was Miss Einstein, who has run well again since and is also favourite for a race in Sydney today. We saw Celestial Falls run a very similar race first up last preparation behind the talented Subpoenaed, before going to Melbourne second up over 1800m and winning easily. The step up in distance to the mile today is a huge plus, she could potentially lead this if they really wanted to, and she should take a stack of running down, with the two favourites looking likely to be giving her a decent head start.
This is where the fields start to get very large and very competitive. There really is any number of winning chances here. (11) Emerald Kingdom started favourite first up in the Listed Chief De Beers at the Sunshine Coast, but he was planted four-wide without cover and faded out to finish second-last, beaten 10L. He draws a bit wide again but his form prior to that was excellent and so is his second up record. He's undefeated at the track from two starts, so if he's at his best, he'll be very competitive. (15) Boomtown Lass is over the odds at $17 and represents the value in the race. He's first up into this and has a terrific record when fresh, having never finished out of the top two from four starts. He's undefeated from three starts at Doomben. He draws wide but with any luck I think he can run a bold race at big odds. (19) Hold The Line ran well first up at the Sunshine Coast. He draws well and David Vandyke has a great record at Doomben. (3) Scallopini has a great first up record, while (9) Usmanov has won three of his last four starts. And the chances don't end there! Emerald Kingdom and Boomtown Lass the two for me at $8.50 and $17 respectively.
How good is a staying race with up to seven Waller runners in it! Certainly makes things tough. (15) Ilwendo isn't one of them but I'm siding with him to get the money here. He won easily here two starts ago, before finishing runner-up to Another Dollar in the Gosford Cup at Randwick last start. He was only beaten 0.2L and he gets a 3kg turnaround in the weights here, so he gets his chance to turn the tables. (4) Another Dollar comes up trumps with barrier 1 though, which gives her the chance to win again. She's peaking nicely for this. She put the writing on the wall a couple starts ago that she was ready to win, and she delivered on that last start. Maloney goes aboard - he has a 21% strike rate when riding for Waller, and the mare has a great record at this track. Speaking of ready to peak, (3) Brimham Rocks is probably ready to do something and he might be the value in the race at $12. They were planning to ride him further forward last start but that didn't eventuate. Third up is about when he goes best, he'll just need a bit of luck from barrier 15. Ilwendo on top but won't be losing on Another Dollar or Brimham Rocks.
No doubt this will be run at a fast pace, with the Waterhouse/Bott second elect very likely to make sure of that. (3) Dawn Passage should just slot in off the pace and let it all unfold. He's returned in terrific form this preparation, with his only failure coming on a bog heavy track. He probably should be undefeated from his three starts other than that. He comes into this off two dominant wins and so long as they can make ground out wide, he'll be motoring home over the top. (13) Subpoenaed is apparently preferred to line up in the next race if they can get a run, but at the moment she needs another scratching for that to happen. She should have won last start, it was a complete horror show, but unfortunately it was always going to be risky from barrier 1 with the way the track was playing, which meant they had no choice but to try and stick to the inside. Prior to that she was very good against Rubisaki. This is a good distance for her and the good tempo should bring her right into it. She's got an outstanding turn of foot so if she does line up here, I'd be taking a piece of the $6.50. (12) Exhilarates was good first up and should improve. She gets the gun draw in barrier 4. (5) Grand Piano has won four of his five starts this prep and also draws well, while (1) The Odyssey is hard to knock and will do his best from outside the leader. Dawn Passage and Subpoenaed the main players for mine.
There's a few I'm keen on at very good odds here. Obviously a lot depends on whether (13) Subpoenaed gets a run here. She needs one more scratching at the time of writing to gain a run. Wouldn't shock me if one of the other Waller runners came out of the race to make way for her, but it's hard to predict. Have to go ahead and assume she doesn't get a run, so that leaves me with one of her stablemates (3) Madam Rouge on top. I think she's a good bet at $14. You can basically forget she's even gone around at all this prep. All three starts have been on wet ground and she clearly goes much better on firm ground. All five of her career wins have been on good tracks, and she's placed just once from six starts on rain-affected ground. I suspect the track will end up around a good 4 by this time of the day and that should see her improve significantly. This prep, she's raced in the G1 The Galaxy, G2 Sapphire Stakes, and the G1 TAB Classic. Big drop in grade back to Listed company against her own sex and Ryan Maloney is a good booking. Some query the 1350m but at her best, she's good enough to win. (17) Jen Rules gets a start and she looks to be peaking at the right time. She's third up from a spell after two very good runs to open her campaign. She ran 2nd to Snitz first up, who has since won again, before running home strongly for 3rd, beaten 0.3L last start. She won third up last prep and looks to be a good chance in this at $15. If there is to be a complete blowout, it could be (12) Frangipani Moon. She did nothing first up but she never does. She's won two from three when second up from a spell, has a great record here at Doomben and won her only other start at the track and distance, where she beat Shalwa. Shalwa is $10 here while Frangipani Moon is $61. Something small on Madam Rouge ($14), Jen Rules ($15) and Frangipani Moon ($61)!
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