The Brisbane winter carnival kicks into action this weekend with the running of the Group 1 BTC Cup. Over the next month we have Doomben CUp Day, Doomben 10,000 Day, Oaks Day at Eagle Farm and Stradbroke Day to conclude the carnival.
The track at DOomben is currently rated a Good 4 and with 27 degrees predicted on Saturday we may get an upgrade to a Good 3 if anything.
UBET BTC Cup 1200m - Group 1
DELECTATION: He's been nowhere near his best so far this prep but Waller thinks he may have fixed him. His best was good enough to beat Chautauqua so he is definitely one to keep safe.
FELL SWOOP: Has had a terrific campaign with placings in the Oakleigh Plate and TJ Smith followed by a win in the Group 2 Victory Stakes here last start. Drawn awkwardly which is the problem for him, but he'll go forward and try to slot in. Winning chance if he gets a good enough run.
STRATUM STAR: Placed in the Futurity and the Blamey over 1400m and 1600m this prep, which is probably when he is at his best. The drop back to 1200m here probably isn't ideal for him and nor is the wide draw. Look for him to be running on.
DOTHRAKI: Ran well in the Galaxy two starts back before a respectable performance in the TJ Smith last start. Not quite sure if he is a genuine WFA Group 1 horse but he's trialed well leading into this and will get a good run from barrier 1.
SACRED STAR: Hasn't performed greatly when coming over to Australia in the past but is a Group 1 winner in New Zealand. Interestingly comes into this first up where his record is decent without being outstanding.
ARTLEE: Big run from well back in the Victory Stakes behind Fell Swoop last start. Has won his only previous start when third up from a break so he should be ready to peak. Will have to come from back in the field but not the worst.
CHARLIE BOY: Big win first up in Group 3 company before finishing midfield last start in similar class where he simply got too far back. His record over 1200m isn't entirely inspiring and neither is his third up record so prepared to pass on him.
MALAGUERRA: One of the more bizarre rides you will see last start from Blake Shinn in the All Aged Stakes. Pulled up with lacerations to both front legs and his tongue so I'm prepared to forgive his poor showing. Back to 1200m - a distance which he won convincingly over two starts ago. Rates well.
TARGET IN SIGHT: Good run when resuming and then slightly disappointing last start in my opinion. Good record when third up and at the distance. Will settle midfield or worse from the barrier and looks up against it on the back of last start.
LIBERATION: The only local in the field and is priced at 150/1 which looks about right. Good record at the track and the distance but he's been racing in significantly inferior class to this. Pass.
JAPONISME: Bounced back to winning form as the favourite in the Group 2 Arrowfield Sprint last start. Seems to do his best racing on Soft tracks but certainly no hack on firmer ground. Draws well and rates as a big chance with form behind Flamberge and Holler two starts back.
COUNTERATTACK: Ran a big race behind Japonisme last start which put the writing on the wall. He was unplaced in all three starts at this track last year which is slightly concerning, and his racing style isn't ideal for Doomben which typically favours runners close to the speed. If he brings his best he can go close though.
TWO BLUE: Mare who likes to lead and has 25 placings from 39 career starts. Led all the way to record a comfortable win two starts ago in a good race at Randwick, before being run down by Nancy last start at Hawkesbury. Will cross and lead from out wide and may get found out late.
ECHO GAL: Resumes here off a 4 month break. Trialing well leading into this but Waterhouse isn't having a good run and this mare looks outclassed as it is. Draws well but I'll be looking elsewhere.
Summary
Japonisme deserves favouritism here on the back of a solid win in Group 2 company last start and Group 1 form previous to that. He draws to get the perfect run from barrier 3 on a track which typically favours those close to the speed.
Fell Swoop is an obvious danger and is similar to Japonisme in that he recorded a good win last start and was running well in Group 1 company previously. He will need luck in running but if he finds a position he will be very competitive.
Delectation will have to come from a long way back but if he does find his best he is certainly capable of winning this. Malaguerra can be forgiven for his poor display last start, while Artlee is ready to peak, Counterattack will be thereabouts and Two Blue may give a bold sight in front. Dothraki also worth including based on his run in the Galaxy and the turnaround in weights.
1st JAPONISME
2nd FELL SWOOP
3rd MALAGUERRA
4th ARTLEE
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
