Game: Carlton Vs. Sydney (Friday, June 28th at 7.50 AEST– SCG)
Market: AFL Fantasy Dream Team: Chris Judd ($2.10) Vs. Tom Mitchell ($1.70) - SportsBet
In many ways it’s insane that there would even be a AFL Fantasy market offering champion Chris Judd head-to-head against Sydney young gun Tom Mitchell. If that sounds crazy to some, then consider that SportsBet is offering Judd at $2.10, while Mitchell comes in as a heavy favourite at $1.70. Some people might get trigger happy here and go jump straight on one of the all-time greats in Judd against the young Sydneysider playing his fourth game of AFL, but let’s take a look at some of the stats and key factors before we dish up our hard earned.
Mitchell is a gun, plain and simple. There’s no denying that. In his debut game against Essendon in Round 10, Mitchell had 18 touches – 12 of which were kicks – and 6 marks, along with kicking a goal. That was good for 98 Dream Team (DT) points, which is huge in a debut game and has only been topped by Port Adelaide’s Oliver Wines this year. Proving he’s not a one-hit wonder, Mitchell then backed it up with a massive game against Adelaide the following week, racking up 31 disposals, taking five marks, making 10 tackles and kicking another goal – good for a massive 144 DT points. Mitchell is in real contention to poll some Brownlow votes in that game, which is obviously huge for a second gamer. In Mitchell’s third game, it was another solid showing as he finished with 81 DT points.
Not even Chris Judd himself kicked off his career with stats like that, so how can we bet against Mitchell? Well, Judd is a superstar plain and simple and Mitchell just hasn’t proven himself in the long term. In this case, experience should triumph.
While Judd isn’t the powerhouse of fantasy football like he once was, he is still averaging a solid 83.09 DT points for the year, which is skewed by a couple of stinkers which were arguably affected by little injury tickles. Judd’s recent form sees him averaging 93.7 DT points over the last five games. Judd’s last game, against Hawthorn in round 12 was the game when Marc Murphy went down with that sickening head clash and what did Judd do with Murph on the side lines? He stood up and played a great game, racking up 29 disposals and kicking a goal. It was the Judd of old. Murphy is obviously still out with his injury and in many ways this helps Judd. It’s unlikely the aging Judd will get a hard tag when damaging players such as Bryce Gibbs and Andrew Walker are on the field and so Judd will likely be allowed to somewhat roam free. In addition, Judd also has a solid record against the Swans, averaging 95.75 over 12 games. Judd scored 116 DT points against the Swans last time they met, with the game also being played at the SCG. Throw in the fact that Judd will benefit from a rest after last week’s bye and we are very happy to take Judd at those odds against the up and coming Mitchell.
Verdict: If the odds were evens at $1.90 a piece maybe this would be a ‘no bet’, but the consistency of Chris Judd and the juicy odds of $2.10 have us keen to get on Juddy versus Tom Mitchell in the AFL Fantasy DreamTeam market at SportsBet.com.au.
