Royal Randwick hosts Day 2 of The Championships this weekend with another four Group 1 races on a bumper 10 race card. The highlight is obviously Winx in the $4million Queen Elizabeth Stakes, but the Australian Oaks, Sydney Cup and Coolmoore Legacy Stakes are set to be crackign races in their own right.
The track is currently a Heavy 8 but I expect we'll be racing on something closer to a Soft 7 by Saturday with minimal rain predicted.
We have betting tips below for every race on the card!
THE CHAMPIONSHIPS DAY 2 RACING TIPS
Race 1
Tough race to start the day here but I quite like the prospects of the Snowden trained COULTHARD at $7.50. He only comes off a Newcastle maiden win but I think the win had plenty of merit and his debut run before that was also an eye-catcher. Interestingly, his debut run over 1300m where he finished 4th (beaten 0.9L) was behind Toga Picta, and the 3rd horse that day was The Mission who came out and won the Group 3 Ballieu two weeks ago. So that tells us the form has held up and I think the step up to 1600m will once again be in Coulthard's favour, and he won last start on a Soft 6 so the Soft 7 I expect we'll be racing on shouldn't be a problem. TOGA PICTA has since gone to Melbourne after that Wyong maiden win, which as I mentioned has turned out to be a fairly strong form race. His two runs in Melbourne were acceptable: two 4th placings in Group 2 and Stakes company. Returns to Sydney here and importantly, he is bred to love the wet tracks. MURAAHIB came out of the Blue Diamond and ran 3rd to The Mission in Group 3 company last start. He might appreciate the slightly firmer track and can win.
Tip: Coulthard
Race 2
Another tough race that is made even tougher by some question marks surrounding some of the better horses in the race. For example, if BEZEL was at his best he'd win this; similar could be said about PEACOCK, and HUSSTERICAL pulled up with poor post-race recovery last start. There's been no signs to suggest Bezel or Peacock are nearing a return to form, so I'll have their stablemate BRYNEICH on top. This horse kicked off his campaign with a dominant 4.5L win at Canterbury on a Soft track before finishing just over 2 lengths away from Man From Uncle in both the Eskimo Prince and Hobartville Stakes (both Group 2s). Last start he went to Canberra and finished 3rd beaten 2.8L behind promising stablemate Eusebio and although that horse failed last week, I think the form will hold up. Importantly, he gets a 4kg weight swing on Echo Effect from the Hobartville, where the margin was 2L. Both of his wins have come on Soft ground and he should be competitive here at $6. SCREAMARR is the clear value in the race here. He was absolutely luckless in the Mornington Guineas last start, held up from the 400m-150m before charging home into 4th. Previous to that he won over 1300m at Kembla on Soft ground so the drop back to 1400m might not be an issue. $14 looks a good each way price. As mentioned above, BEZEL and PEACOCK are winning chances on best form but take on trust. HUSSTERICAL a winning chance if she bounces back from her problem last start. Happy to take on ECHO EFFECT with the 59kg to lump here.
Tip: Bryneich / Screamarr EW
Race 3
I think of the short-priced runners here SHOALS is the one to be on. Absolutely bolted in on debut at Seymour before being heavily backed at Flemington last start and beating what I think is a pretty smart horse in Garrard. She also thumped Arctic Angel in that race, and Arctic Angel placed 2nd in Sydney ahead of Teaspoon earlier on. The big query will be the wet surface. TEASPOON could actually be the value in the race at $10. She failed in the Golden Slipper but was found to have a laceration to one of her legs. She was a Group 3 winner and group 2 placed before that so back onto a slightly firmer surface should suit her. VILLA CARLOTTA another one to include at $18. Two starts ago she finished 3rd behind the Golden Slipper quinella and she failed last start when blundering at the top of the home straight. If she bounces back she could be very competitive here. I think Almanzora is short enough at $3, as is Serena Bay at $4.
Tip: Shoals / Teaspoon EW
Race 4
POMELO looks the best bet of the day here. Simply looks a class above these horses with four wins from her last five starts, the last two of which were at this track. They were on Soft and Heavy ground respectively, and the combined margin was 5.5L. She steps up to 1400m here but she won her maiden over this trip so it should be no problem. The only way I see her getting beat is if she gets pestered up the front, but even so she may still be too good. The $2.90 still available is a decent price.
Tip: Pomelo (best bet)
Race 5
I think the way the race sets up it should suit GLOBAL GLAMOUR and she's a deserved favourite but I just back her at $3.50 coming off two tough runs and back from 1600m to 1200m. I do expect her to be very competitive but I just can't jump in at the price. GLENALL is a horse I've got a lot of time for and from all reports he is going to improve exponentially when he gets back onto firmer surfaces. Each run this campaign has been good and we should be on a Soft 7 here which will suit him much better than the Heavy 10's he's been racing on at his past two.Maps to get a lovely run and at $6 I'll be backing him here. DEFCON and SARACINO look the two value runners in the race. Defcon returns after 210 days off the track. He's clearly had issues but has won his latest trial leading into this and did win in Group 3 company first up last prep. No surprise to see him competitive here at $21. Saracino comes off a Group 2 win in new Zealand over 1400m and most importantly is undefeated on Soft ground. $15 looks a big price.
Tip: Glenall
Race 6
really quite keen on BONNEVAL here and prepared to have a decent crack at the $4.60 around.This filly has won three straight in New Zealand, the latest of which was the Group 1 NZ Oaks over 2400m. As we've seen throughout the carnival, the New Zealand form has really come to the fore, especially over these staying trips. Her last two wins have been on Soft ground which is a big plus, and I really like the fact she's coming off a 2400m win. From barrier 6 she should get a lovely run for Bowman and I think she's a clear top pick. I expect NURSE KITCHEN to be the best of the locals. Her run in the Vinery Stud Stakes was sensational and suggested she is crying out for ground so the step up in trip should be no issue. She practically had to come out sideways in the straight on that occasion and was perhaps unlucky not to win, so despite drawing wide here she should be hitting the line hard. Don't underestimate the recent form of LASQUETI SPIRIT. She drops down from Group 1 weight-for-age class back to her own age, own sex and set weights. If you take Jameka out of her last race she wasn't beaten all that far by some very good horses, and that was after going for home very early. If Bonneval is considered a big chance then so too must be DEVISE.She was only beaten 0.5L by Bonneval in the Oaks and only 0.9L the start before that. She is sure to go well and $9 looks value. HARLOW GOLD will be thereabouts.
Tip: Bonneval
Race 7
Sit back and enjoy the show! It seems Winx only improved as the ground got wetter, and she'll once again be far too good for this lot on what she's done so far this campaign.
A few bookies have a "Winx out" market (Crownbet is one, under Racing Specials) which has HARTNELL at $2.50 which seems a reasonable price for me. Even the $1.50 place price is acceptable. I'm not sure the bottomless tracks he's faced at his past two have really been to his liking, and back onto a firmer surface today around the Soft 7 mark can see him get back to his best. He had The United States covered last start in the Ranvet and I think he's got Happy Clapper covered too. His biggest danger could be Exospheric, which makes the $9.50 for Exospheric in the "Winx Out" market a bit of value. HAPPY CLAPPER is flying and finished 2nd in the Doncaster for the second year running. His preparation has been nearly faultless, but I just question whether he is a genuine Group 1 WFA horse. He didn't beat much in the Newcastle Newmarket two starts ago, and his best performances have come in handicaps. He's struggled previously at this level and although he's going well, I think the other horses are just better than him. EXOSPHERIC's run two starts ago in the Australian Cup behind Humidor and Jameka was outstanding, before he put in a brave showing behind Jameka in The BMW last start. The drop back to 2000m could actually suit him, as will a firmer track. $9.50 looks a decent bet for the "Winx Out" market - he'll be ahead of Hartnell on the turn and just has to hold him off. THE UNITED STATES is honest as ever but has a bit to make up on Exospheric and Hartnell.
Tip: Winx (Bet: Hartnell ($2.50)/ Exospheric ($9.50) in "Winx Out" market)
Race 8
Everything lines up for BIG DUKE to win this, but I'm going to take him on once again at the price today. The obvious query for him is the step up to two miles for the first time but all the indications are that he'll handle that. But I'm hesitant to jump in at $2.60. We've seen Team Williams employ this tactic with their horses before and at the price I'm going to have ASSIGN on top. I'm not sure he's the best of their horses but neither was Gallante and neither was Mourayan when they won the Sydney Cup. They traditionally give their horses one run in Sydney leading into the Sydney Cup and have them peaking for the 3200m (typically their third or fourth run for the campaign). That's exactly what they've done here with Assign, who comes into this third up from a spell after a good win over 2000m on a heavy track last start. He failed in the Melbourne Cup last year which means there is an obvious question mark over the 3200m here, but this certainly isn't a field of superstars he's up against. The value in the race could be LIBRAN for Chris Waller and Hugh Bowman. This horse was favourite for the race last year and although his runs leading into this year's Cup have been nowhere near as good, I think he could be ready to peak getting out to 3200m. It's telling to me that Bowman goes with Libran rather than TheBarman and he will certainly appreciate the Soft ground rather than Heavy. $14 available and it looks a decent each way bet to me. Waller was very bullish that Who Shot TheBarman would run in the top 3 here, he pretty well declared him to do so. He will certainly run the distance, and if he runs up to his Melbourne Cup 5th placing last Spring he will run top 3. The concern is his record at the track (0 wins from 12 starts) though many of those have been over unsuitable distances. You need to be pretty good to win with top weight, though he will get a great run from the barrier. I actually think KINEMA could be the blowout. He needs a good tempo otherwise he will pull his head off as he did last start. He's also better suited on firmer ground but with the step up in trip and a decent tempo, he could be the big improver at 40/1. ANNUS MIRABILIS faces a tougher task here than what he did when winning the Adelaide Cup two starts ago, but he is guaranteed to run the trip. PENGLAI PAVILION definitely one to include for Charlie Appleby.
Tip: Assign / Libran EW
Race 9
I've got this between SILENT SEDITION and DIXIE BLOSSOMS with FOXPLAY and DANISH TWIST also in the mix. SILENT SEDITION goes on top based on her incredible form leading into this. Two starts ago she travelled three-wide without cover for the entire 1500m of the Group 1 Coolmoore Classic and only went down by a pimple to Heavens Above. With any sort of luck or a better run she would have won, it was an enormous effort to finish where she did. Then last start she dropped back to 1200m and won the Group 1 William Reid Stakes. Back up to 1600m now which I'm not worried about based on her run two starts back. Importantly, she draws barrier 7 today and will get a gun run forward of midfield and I expect her to be too good. Her run in the Coolmoore was on a Soft 6 so no problems with the track conditions either. $4.80 is a more than reasonable price for me to be betting into. DIXIE BLOSSOMS has had absolutely no luck with barriers this prep but atleast here she gets a significant jockey change with Sam Clipperton booked to ride. Three starts ago she belted Zanbagh by more than 6 lengths on a Heavy track over 1400m, before travelling four-wide without cover in the Coolmoore. Her run last start over 1500m was absolutely enormous (go watch the replay), coming from dead last on the turn and zooming along the rails to get within 0.7L of the winner. She was given no hope at all, so with the jockey change and a slightly better barrier today I'm expecting a huge run from her. Loves the Randwick track. FOXPLAY drops from the 2000m back to 1600m which I think suits her much better. Gets weight off the mares as a 3YO filly and I have no doubt over her ability. She can win this. DANISH TWIST was only just beaten by Heavens Above and Silent Sedition in the Coolmoore and from barrier 2 with Bowman on board should go close. Backing both SILENT SEDITION ($4.80) and DIXIE BLOSSOMS ($8) here.
Tip: Silent Sedition / Dixie Blossoms EW
Race 10
Team Snowden hold a very strong hand here and could even trifecta the race. Leaning towards TYCOON TARA here who started last campaign with consecutive Group 2 wins over this track and distance. One of those was on Heavy ground so the wet track here is no concern, and I'm not concerned about the wide barrier either given the lack of tempo on paper. She should be able to roll forward quite comfortably and if she gets an easy sectional she is definitely a winning chance. Can't believe her price at as much as $8. RAVI is the more fancied Snowden runner in the race. She ran 2nd to Heavens Above first up last prep over this distance in Group 3 company, and we know that form has held up. She won in dominant fashion in Brisbane at her last start and that was on Soft ground so no concerns there. Barrier 15 is her biggest hurdle here, as they have traditionally ridden her back in the field when she's drawn wide. ARTISTRY comes off a good win first up over 1100m on a Soft 7 track so she's ticked that box. No reason she can't be competitive here, while SECRET AGENDA has the ability and looks a real wet tracker so expect her to improve.
Tip: Tycoon Tara (best value)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
