Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Sunday, January 7th.
We have a nine-race card with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the true position. Perfect conditions predicted and I’d expect the track to be upgraded to a Good 3 pretty early in the program. As always with Caulfield, it will be better to be on speed than back in the field.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 Widgee Turf
Best Value: Race 2 Snitzelwood
Race 1
Very competitive to kick off proceedings. I’m going to stick with the ADDISON form line from Caulfield on Boxing Day, where the Lindsay Park mare came from last on the turn to win in the final stride. She was only second up over the 1600m on that occasion, and she’s only going to continue to improve over more ground, so the step up to 1800m third up should be in her favour today. There’s every chance she improves off her win last start, and that would see her very hard to beat at a good price here. SO SPLENDID ran 3rd behind Addison in that race, beaten just a nose, and that was after doing some work early to get up on speed. It was nice to see the change of tactics last start to actually give the horse a chance. In all of her starts prior to that, she was ridden off the speed and given huge tasks to win. From barrier 1 I think they’ll be right on speed again, and with a 2.5kg weight swing on Addison she may be able to turn the tables. RISING HOPE ran 4th, beaten just 0.3L but Addison came from behind her on the turn and the weight swing she gets here is very minimal. She does get a positive jockey change with Lane taking over from Ethan Brown, and she draws well, but I think Addison has the greater scope for improvement. With that said, you can’t rule out any Weir runner in a race like this, so she has to be given a chance along with her stablemate BONUS D’ORO. HEAVENLY DESCENT, ROYAL APPLAUSE and SHENANDOAH all chances in a wide-open race. Backing So Splendid and Addison.
TIP: Addison / So Splendid
Race 2
Three main chances in this for me. I found it hard to split BONDEIGER and ANGELUCCI, but based on the speed map, I’ve gone with ANGELUCCI to make it a hattrick of wins. He saluted in very good style last start over 1700m here, and the race wasn’t terribly weak. He draws barrier 4 here and should get much the same run as he did last start. He needs to handle the step up to 2000m, but the way he hit the line last time suggests it shouldn’t be an issue. $6.50 looks a reasonably good price. BONDEIGER will get a long way back from barrier 10, and that’s the biggest concern. He looks to have come back in very good style, however, and looks ready to win third up here. His last run put the writing on the wall when he finished off strongly over 1500m at Bendigo. He’d had 51 days off the track leading into that, so that should top him off and he now steps straight up to 2000m. The obvious query is his record at the distance given he’s had seven starts for just one minor placing, but Weir is one trainer capable of defying that. I think the clear value in the race is SNITZELWOOD. He’s not done a lot in his first two runs back from a spell, but his third up record reads four starts for three wins. He won third up last preparation over 2000m, so this looks the right formula for him. I’d think he will lead this field and he could be tough to run down at $17. ANDREA MANTEGNA and FONTEIN LAD should be thereabouts. Backing Angelucci and Snitzelwood with at least a saver on Bondeiger (you could back all three).
TIP: Angelucci / Snitzelwood EW
Race 3
Nice little sprint race for the three-year-old fillies. I’m sticking with LUCKY CAT who we backed on debut at Bendigo, when she came from back in the field to sprint home powerfully down the outside and win in the last stride. It was a fairly impressive performance after being held up in the straight, and we know what Weir is like with these horses coming straight to the city. The horse she beat also won its next start. She should get a nice run in midfield from barrier 5 and I expect her to go very close at $5. This will be a nice race to use some of the promos offering money back for 2nd and 3rd. MAGNESIUM ROSE is a horse I’ve backed both starts this preparation and if she wins today it would make me sick, so I’ll be saving on her. She was luckless first up at the Valley, and then could only manage 3rd last start when carrying 59.5kg. She gets a bit of a weight drop here, Craig Williams takes the ride, she comes back to her home track and she’ll be forward in the run, so she ticks a few boxes. There was plenty of money for her when markets opened, but she’s now drifted back out to $4. AEECEE TONG DE will likely lead for Waterhouse/Bott. Goes right up in the weights to 59kg today after just being touched off at Moonee Valley last start. Will go close. I’m very wary of ULTRA SMART, who ran very well on debut behind the likes of Our Crown Mistress, which is great form. She then won her second start at Mornington in BM70 grade, which isn’t easy for a maiden. She is first up here and gets barrier 1, but I just would have liked to have seen a bit more from her in her recent jump outs. Keeping her safe at $8 though.
TIP: Lucky Cat
Race 4
I’m going against a few of my little principles here in the hope that the two market favourites get rolled. I normally don’t like horses carrying as much as 61kg in weight, but I’ve got ÉCLAIR CALLING as a leading chance here. He comes to Melbourne on the back of two dominant Gawler wins, and when Phillip Stokes brings horses to Melbourne they generally go close. It’s a non-claiming race, hence he carries the full brunt of the 61kg, but he’ll go forward and should give a good sight at $7. BELLARIA won dominantly first up at Kyneton and was an absolute tragedy beaten last start at Werribee. She drew barrier 1 and was held up until about the 75m mark before flashing home to run 3rd as the short-priced favourite. She draws horribly here, but Damian Lane takes over and she’s another of these Weir runners that comes to the city after performing well in the country. If she gets luck from the barrier she’ll be motoring home at $7. KEEN bolted in debut to win by just under 5L, and he should once again roll to the front here. I’m a big fan of Stephen Baster on leaders, and that’s the case here, but despite the huge win, it was only a Cranbourne maiden. Cranbourne is somewhat of a leaderish track, and this is a decent step up in grade. Not saying he can’t win, but he’s short enough at the price. LA VOLT hasn’t had a great deal of luck at all this prep, and has been racing in probably better races than this. Senior rider goes back on today and she draws barrier 1. Goes close. MAHAMEDEIS not hopeless. Backing both Éclair Calling and Bellaria at $7 each.
TIP: Éclair Calling / Bellaria
Race 5
Keen to bet here. A number of these horses come out of a race behind Creativity over this track and distance three weeks ago. ESSENCE OF TERROR really gets her chance today, if she goes forward from the barrier, which I suspect she will. Her first three starts this preparation were ruined by wide barrier draws, and she drew barrier 13 when finishing 6th in that Creativity race two starts ago. They finally went forward last start at the Valley but she had to work to get there. She was clear in the straight but got very tired late and was run down to be beaten less than a length. Back in trip here, hopefully they roll forward and if so, she should be right in this at $6. Also pretty keen on this South Australian visitor from the Lloyd Kennewell stable, INVISIBLE GIRL. She’s been running consistently over in Adelaide, and while the form may look fairly average on paper, she’s been undone by slow tempos and small fields. She’ll get back in the run, but they’ve set her for this race and she should be motoring home late at $6.50. MAMZELLE TESS ran well first up when 3rd in the Creativity race. She should be improved for that but the wide barrier may hurt. TYKIATO bounced back to form when running 2nd to Creativity. She should have won but was smashed at the 200m and quite remarkably got going again to flash home late. Carries top weight here but Oliver goes on and if she repeats last start, she probably wins. CHIAVARI could be the value at double figure odds.
TIP: Essence Of Terror / Invisible Girl
Race 6
Not much to write about here. I think WIDGEE TURF is the best bet anywhere in the country all weekend and I’m locking in $1.80. Boost the odds with your bookie or anchor it in all your multis. His first up win on the heavy ground at Sandown was impressive, but his win last start at Moonee Valley was something else. He absolutely donkey-licked them on a day when it was very hard to make ground, but he did so and made it look very easy. Third up here and should be able to smoke these. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him start $1.50.
TIP: Widgee Turf (Best Bet)
Race 7
Good race. I was with PREVAILING WINDS last start and I’m going to stick solid here. He was only run down late on that occasion and Damian Lane sticks with him again today. Barrier 9 is slightly awkward but there’s things I don’t like about some of the other favourites so I’m expecting him to go close again at $5.50. I think the big value in the race is another Adelaide visitor in GAME OF WAR. He draws poorly here and may be looking for a touch further than this, but he’s run some very good races in Adelaide and Lloyd Kennewell gave him a fairly decent push on radio during the week. I just think the $26 is over the odds and he should be running on late. EPIC MOMENT comes off a good win at Mornington last time out. Both starts this prep have been at Mornington, and while they’ve both been good, I’m yet to be really convinced, because he settled right up on speed and Mornington is very much an on-speed track. His time when winning last start was actually marginally slower than Prevailing Winds’ winning time over the same track and distance two starts ago. MANOLO BLAHNIQ is knocking on the door for a win. He has put in two good runs this prep and came from back in the field to get within a length last time out. My concern with him is he’s had three starts when third up from a spell and has never placed. Plenty of chances in this one and we’ll be going wide in the quaddie!
TIP: Prevailing Winds / Game Of War EW
Race 8
Another very competitive race. TROGIR was a good winner for us at double figure odds last start and I’m with him again today at $6, but we’re going to need some luck and a very good ride from Chris Caserta. The horse won dominantly in Adelaide three starts ago before a complete forgive run two starts ago. Last start he came to Melbourne and sprinted nicely to win fairly convincingly in easier grade. Steps up sharply to BM78 here but gets in light after the claim and should be right in the mix. Chris Waller sends THE AVENGER down from Sydney. He’s had two starts since a short let-up and hasn’t done much, but the race he comes out of has proven to be a handy form race and it’s superior to this kind of competition. The barrier concerns me as they said last start the horse would be ridden quiet (eventually settled outside the leader), so from gate 11 I expect they will probably go back. Still saving on it. I can’t believe I’m saying it but DATA POINT actually looks value today at $13. It’s well and truly his last chance, but he was luckless at the Valley last start (a track that really doesn’t suit his racing style) and he’s got a great record at 1400m. Barrier 1 could be a bit tricky as he tends to get back, but third up and up in distance should see him run well. The firm track will be the big query. Big watch on the first starter for Darren Weir, CULLINGWORTH, who has its first start in Australia. There’s a bit of word going around that this horse is flying and they expect it to run huge here, but it will need to be very good to win from the wide barrier. Keeping safe and it goes in the quaddie. PAINTE gets to 1400m and is nearing a win. Taking on I BOOGI who has a poor second up record.
TIP: Trogir / Data Point EW
Race 9
Three main chances I like to close out the day here. NASDEX should lead this field from barrier 9 and gets in well with Steph Thornton’s claim. He was beaten a nose by MURPHY’S REWARD and WISE HERO last start, and Wise Hero has since franked that form by winning his next start. He gets a 2.5kg weight swing on Murphy’s Reward here and should be at his top third up from a spell. REVOLVING DOOR is first up and barrier 1 is a big help. He won first up last prep at Moonee Valley when he settled right up on speed. That was over 1200m and there is a slight query with him over 1100m here but he gets a gun run from the barrier and should be right in the finish. MURPHY’S REWARD was a big-priced winner first up at Moonee Valley and comes up big odds again here due to the hike in the weights and the wide barrier. While both those things are against him, he did beat Wise Hero who is very good. With any luck he could run another big race at $18. HANDSOME THIEF is a nice horse and resumes here. Will need to be at his best to win from that barrier but Damian Lane takes the ride which is a positive sign. Happy to be against MOGADOR. He was luckless first up at the Valley behind Murphy’s Reward but his second up record is poor and from that barrier he’ll be ridden negatively. LEODORO not hopeless. Backing Nasdex and Murphy’s Reward and saving on Revolving Door.
TIP: Nasdex / Murphy’s Reward EW
QUADDIE
2
3, 4, 8, 11, 13, 18
5, 8, 9, 14, 16
3, 4, 6, 12
$100 = 83.33%
Tips are provided for entertainment and information purposes, and do not guarantee profit. Always gamble responsibly.
