Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, May 30th.
Melbourne racing returns to Caulfield this Saturday, with the track currently rated a soft 5. With minimal rain I expect it to remain in that range. The rail is out 9 metres for the entirety, and I’d expect leaders to be favoured early in the meeting at least.
Best Bet: Race 8- (15) Victoria Star
Best Value: Race 2- (12) Miss Hayworth
Not a bad two year old race to kick us off. (6) Crystal Chief is the favourite after an excellent debut down the straight, being snicked back to last and running 3rd with (5) Nantucket a nose ahead in 2nd. Crystal Chief ran the fastest last 400m and 200m of the day, which is very impressive for a 2yo compared to seasoned sprinters. The step up to 1100m is ideal, but early speed is a bit unknown. If he can settle midfield, I think he’ll win, but it’s a slight risk early in the day. (3) Valaquenta beat home (1) Jabali Ridge in the Blue Diamond preview and was solid first up behind a good horse in Peltzer. Both have solid claims. The interesting runner is (11) Island Joy. Her debut at Cranbourne was excellent, sitting three wide no cover over 1000m yet powering away, running the fastest last 800m and 600m of the meeting, over four lengths faster than stakes horses Victoria Star and Inn Keeper later in the meeting. From barrier 1, I expect Jamie Kah to be right on speed and make full use of the shortest way home whereas main danger Crystal Chief will be needing a lot of luck.
This is a tricky one. A few of these come out of same track and distance event 6 weeks ago. I think the pick of those is (6) Pauls Regret who gets Willo replacing Poy from barrier 5. (3) Broadwayandfourth drops back from 1400m to 1100m which isn’t ideal. (10) Somals is the big watch. She started $2.30 favourite against Rubisaki last preparation, working hard to sit outside the leader and being beaten 2.8L whilst the leader dropped out completely. She draws wide with plenty of speed in the race, but she’s jumped out very well and with a touch of luck will be going close here. The blowouts could be down the bottom, with (11) Zoujea running well first up and (12) Miss Hayworth winning easily last start. The start before that she ran a very narrow 2nd to Ameliaranne who has come out and beat our best bet on Wednesday at Sale. Making Somals top pick, something small each way on Miss Hayworth and Zoujea at huge odds.
Happy enough to oppose the favourite (6) Ruban Bleu here. Was keen on him at a big price last week, but that was on his preferred heavy ground and Flemington straight. He has run well off the quick backup before, but on a drier track around Caulfield I can’t have him at the early price. The interesting runner is (3) Dubai Dominion making his Australian debut. He’s run in some good races in the UK, the latest down the track with Imaging in 2nd, so that’s some indication to his ability. I think (10) Leiter maps well here. He’ll be up on speed and hard to get past in a race without too much pressure. (18) Hidden Legend if it gets a run has a good chance but will need a gun ride from in-form jockey Jamie Kah.
Interesting little contest over the mile here. There’s a few of the usual consistent suspects up against some progressive horses, none more than (6) Smoke Bomb who is coming off a 5 length demolition at Cranbourne, leading all the way in a great show of sustained speed. The step up to 1600 looks to be a positive if anything, and if the track is playing how I expect it to he could be a big firmer on the day. (2) Librate narrowly got the better of (5) Charleise last start and is 2kg worse off at the weights but draws much better for Kah. There’s little between them. The favourite is (4) Right You Are who is progressing through the grades nicely. Damien Oliver sticks from his last start win at Werribee and brings a strong SP profile. Olly would want to hold a spot from barrier 2 and find the gaps because I don’t think he can loop the field to win against this field as he did last start.
Handy BM90 sprint for the mares here, and (7) Gododdin is the favourite coming off a narrow 2nd to (11) Jamaican Hurry. Gododdin does meet the winner 4kg better from their last start, who draws the carpark here. (1) Dyslexic is an interesting runner down from Sydney. This mare was held up badly two runs back in a group 3, before being very well backed in a similar race last start and finishing 3L adrift after over racing. She has to carry the big weight here but does have a bit of class on these and should sit just off the speed from barrier 5. (8) Pariano is flying at the moment and will cross to lead but steps up to 1200m which I don’t think she runs so I’m happy to take her on. (3) Tahitian Dancer is going well but will need plenty of luck from barrier 1. Simple two bet play for me in the race.
Another handy sprint race where a few key chances come out of the Wangoom Handicap at Warnambool. (8) Hawker Hurricane was very well backed to win that race and finished 1.5L away in 6th. Back on to firmer ground likely suits here, and he’ll be hard to run down. No knock on (4) News Girl who will cross to sit on speed, but she just looks very short coming off a last start win where she had all the favours. Another coming out of the Wangoom is (6) Inn Keeper who ran very well before getting stuck in traffic with 62kg while the winner was off and gone last start. With Willo on from barrier 1, I expect him to be just behind the leaders and slice through in the straight. (7) The Centaurian goes well fresh and is some hope.
(6) Sikorsky is the favourite here and deservedly so, coming off an unlucky and narrow 2nd to Jumbo Ozaki before winning comfortably as favourite at Flemington last start. Oliver sticks from barrier 10, he’ll get the horse into a spot with a nice rhythm and if he repeats his last start performance, I think he’s nearly the best of the day in a weak BM84. There’s not much between mares (10) Pure Scot and (11) Something Silver who are both going well. The interesting runner is (8) No Say In It for Yendall and Lindsey Smith. This WA galloper was good first up and has solid stakes form in his home state. He’ll be back in the field from a wide gate though which makes it tough. Pretty keen on Sikorsky, but (2) All Too Huiying will be my saver in the race who maps well and looks set to peak 3rd up after an excellent 4th in stakes class at Morphettville last start, finishing a length off Harbour Views.
Tricky race to bet in with two imports. Of the two (5) Biometric looks to have the wood over (18) Mount Popa off their recent jumpout and their overseas distance range. I was happy to see the odds on offer for (15) Victoria Star who is putting together a handy record. This gelding started $2.30 first up and beat Inn Keeper quite easily at Cranbourne. Up to 1400m second up is perfect, and Froggy Newitt will sit just off the speed from barrier 3. The clear danger is (12) Jumbo Ozaki who has always promised a lot but is starting to put some wins on the board. Willo will likely lead from barrier 2 and if the track is still favouring on pacers expect him to be hard to beat. (1) Heptagon has solid claims with a good 2nd up record and I was keen to back him before a scratching a few weeks ago, but I would’ve thought he’d be double figures here.
Good race, but incredibly open way to finish the day. If you’re alive in the quaddie good luck! (8) Mahamedeis was narrowly defeated by (3) Super Titus last start and gets a 2kg weight swing here. Mahamedeis ran the fastest sectionals of that race by quite a margin and draws well here. His best form would go close to winning this and he looks to be getting close to it based off the last run. (11) Hang Man was very well backed last start but disappointing and very one paced to the line. Up to 2000m is what he needs now, but he does draw wide and there’s not much between him and the other two. (6) Girl Tuesday is here after an interesting preparation to say the least. She should’ve won second up when Nash went from lane 2 to lane 10 in the space of 6 strides. She was then slaughtered by Vorster last start at Morphettville but didn’t run on as I would’ve expected despite the race being over. The booking of Damien Oliver is huge and from barrier 9 expect her to be in the running line. Her best runs would win this and I’m giving her one more chance. (1) Pacodali was very poor last start after racing outside the lead. They went very quick up front and he couldn’t go on. His first up run was excellent and on better ground with a quieter ride here I expect him to bounce back. (4) Inverloch could bounce back and lead all the way but was awful in the Warnambool Cup and might have come to the end of a long preparation.
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