Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday January 7th

Racing returns to Caulfield this weekend as things start to take shape for Blue Diamond Stakes Day at the end of next month. While the 9 race card today appears to be fairly plain, we could get a clearer picture of the 2YO pecking order and there are certainly some handy types set to race later in the day.

All in all, I think we're in for a great days racing and Caulfield is one of my favourite tracks purely because of its consistency and fairness.

Race 1

This could prove pretty crucial to those with one eye on the Blue Diamond. While Tulip may have been the more visually impressive of David Hayes' two-year-olds, the times suggest there is not much between her and CATCHY, who comes up the odds on favourite here. Personally, I think the style of Catchy's win on debut, as well as the time she clocked, suggest she is a realistic chance of winning the Blue Diamond, and I wouldn't be surprised if she was the best of the Lindsay Park two-year-olds. The form from her first win has already proved very strong with Limestone winning at Flemington last week, and if Catchy is as much of a Blue Diamond chance as I think she is, she'll be winning this. Currently around $17 in Blue Diamond markets so it could be worth getting in early. The biggest danger looks to be Robert Smerdon's PROPERTY, who was kept under a hold in his jumpout. SEE ME EXCEED could be the value hope after winning a jump out at this track leading into this.

Tip: Catchy

Race 2

Really difficult race to assess with plenty of chances, so not one I'm overly keen to get involved in betting-wise. Despite early market support, I'm going to take on Amadeus here who, despite coming through two strong form races this prep, raced like he was looking for ground last start. If you look back to last prep, he stretched out to 1400m and I think he will be better over that sort of ground as opposed to the 1100m here. It could be worth giving MR DASHING another go after running 3rd first up at the Valley under 60kg. He was beaten convincingly by Mystified that day but Mystified had the sit on all of them and with Mr Dashing dropping from 60kg to 56.5kg here he is much better off. The value to me looks to be DANCE WITH FONTEIN who has come back in good order this prep. She finished 1.5L ahead of Amadeus last start and despite the rise in weight, actually gets in 2.5kg better off. Has won her only start 3rd up from a spell and from the inside gate should get a perfect run so $11 looks a good price.

Tip: Mr Dashing / Dance With Fontein EW (Best Value)

Race 3

We were on Crystal Dreamer last start and she won well for us but I'm jumping off today with the step up in grade and the wide draw. Both of her wins this prep she has had the easiest runs in the race from barriers 1 and 4, but from barrier 10 today she won't get that. Happy to go with CANA who won two starts back in Sydney in similar grade before coming to Melbourne and running 2nd to King's Command (who has been well backed in the last race of the day) in this grade at the Valley. From barrier 3 she can get a great run and she should prove hard to beat.

Tip: Cana

Race 4

Very competitive race here with about 7 of the 9 runners in with a chance. The pace could be key here with the likes of Invictum Domina and No Tan Tat likely to contest the lead. I think if Invictum Domina had a soft lead she'd be the one to beat here but given she will have competition for the lead it could set it up for KENEDNA who comes into this 3rd up from a spell after a solid enough win at Echuca last start. Gets in okay with the 2kg claim for Ben Allen and I expect her to sit just off the speed and pounce late. The step up to 1400m looks to suit her. Others at longer odds such as ALMA'S ROSSA, GRIOUX and MACATTACK are also in with a solid each way chance. Happy to take on both Special Diva and No Tan Tat stepping up from maiden grade to a tricky race.

Tip: Kenedna

Race 5

Another very competitive race and I found it hard to split a number of these. BALF'S CHOICE gets his chance to win today after a string of good performances. Last start he just battled on to run 3rd behind Plein Ciel which is a good form line and the step up to 1700m should suit him. I think with the good draw and the poor draw for Royal Applause, he can turn the tables on the mare. FOLK TALES comes off a very impressive win in Class 1 at Cranbourne last start over 1500m. This is significantly harder but he won by nearly 5 lengths there and should once again improve with the extra furlong here. One at value might be the Weir/Allen runner CRAFTY DEVIL who really ran home well over 1800m at Sandown last start. 

Tip: Balf's Choice/ Crafty Devil EW

Race 6

Excited by the return of the very promising Ameristralia here who won 3 from 4 last prep and finished with a 5th placing behind subsequent Group 1 performer Sheidel. She's won a jump out leading into this and back to this grade looks very tough to beat, but at the $2.00 quote I don't think she's worth backing. It's a different story if you've managed to get on the $3.70 that went up early but at the current quotes I'd be backing LYUBA and MOSSIN' AROUND. Lyuba has done nothing to suggest she won't be right in the finish today after two wins and a 2nd from three starts this prep. She bumped into a smart one last start and with the claim for Allen she gets in reasonably well here. From the good draw I expect her to be right on the pace and if she gets a few lengths on Ameristralia in the straight she will be tough to run down. Mossin' Around hasn't won for a long time but she should have won last prep and I don't think we've seen the best of her. I really think she can go close here and at the $7.50 is the best value runner in the race. I'll be backing both and taking on Ameristralia at the price.

Tip: Lyuba / Mossin' Around EW

Race 7

While this is a much stronger race than what he's contested so far, it's very hard to go past PLEIN CIEL who is undefeated in Australia. He's won all three starts effortlessly and from the inside gate should get an easy run in transit. Allen's claim brings him down to 55kg and his time over 1600m last start was more than a second quicker than Rewarding Effort's time over the same distance. In saying that, Rewarding Effort does looks a very progressive horse and was heavily eased down last start. He is sure to be competitive here. Cool Chap the interesting runner back in this grade.

Tip: Plein Ciel (Best Bet)

Race 8

The price is all but gone now but if CHANCE TO DANCE brings his best form here he will win this. He's got a win over The United States next to his name which was coincidentally first up from a spell over 1600m. First up last prep he flew home over 1400m with 59.5kg so the mile first up here looks right up his alley. The claim brings him down to 54.5kg and from barrier 4 he will get absolutely every chance. MIHANY continues to race well and will give another good sight out front, while his stablemate GOLDEN MANE has a great Caulfield record but may just need one more run to be at his top.

Tip: Chance To Dance

Race 9 

Only two that really interest me here. KING'S COMMAND should really enjoy the drop back to BM78 grade here. Has been running well in tougher grade and simply got too far back last start. Carries the 59kg here after the claim but gets a good draw and should be going close. BRADMAN put the writing on the wall last start that he is ready to win. He normally takes a few runs to come good and now at his fourth run back from a spell he looks ready to peak. He circled wide last start and ran into 2nd and will have to do similar here from barrier 10, but he's another that should enjoy the drop in grade. Happy to back Bradman each way here but definitely have a saver on King's Command.

Tip: Bradman