Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday, August 19th

Cracking day of racing from Caulfield this weekend with a nine-race card featuring the Group 2 PB Lawrence Stakes.

The track is currently rated a Good 4 but there is a bit of rain predicted, so there's a chance we may be on a Soft track come Saturday.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below.

Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday, August 19th

Race 1

Really good race to start things off here. The more I look at it the more I keep coming back to SEA THE SPARKLE and she is a clear top pick for me at $4.40. Last star she started the well-backed $2.50 favourite, in the race eventually won by Dulverton that also featured Hell Or Highwater. She failed, but pulled up with slow recovery and mucus. So we can put a line through that run, and there's also a few other things in her favour here. Craig Williams goes back on today, and from barrier 2 I think she can box seat just as she did when she won first up. Any rain would increase her chances, and some of her main rivals have a few negatives in my opinion. HELL OR HIGHWATER is one of those. I've actually got her as my second pick, because now that she's struck form she should be able to keep it, just like she did last prep when winning a few on the bounce. She only carries half-a-kilogram more in weight today, and she should once again be able to control the race from the front from barrier 4. That's always a bonus at Caulfield, as proven by her winning her only start over this track and distance. The big negative for her today is 3kg apprentice Chris Caserta taking over from Ben Thompson. He'd have to rate Hell Or Highwater spot on from the front, and I just think he's too much of a risk.

DULVERTON is flying and if it rains, expect her to be well-backed. Stockdale rode her pretty well last start, and he once again takes the ride, but from barrier 7 she could once again get well back in the field. At Flemington it's easier to make up the ground than at Caulfield, so I think she'll find herself in a tricky position to win from. DOMINO VITALE showed she is ready to win now, but her record of four starts for no placings at Caulfield is enough for me to avoid her. NOT ONLY FLORINA is a very interesting runner first up in Australia for the Hayes/Dabernig stable, but I believe she will need the run and will be better suited over 2000m+. NIMINYPIMINY has only placed once from eight starts at the track so prepared to risk her. JEANNEAU is the big watch in the race, having her first start for Robert Smerdon after some decent performances in strong Sydney races behind the likes of Arbeitsam. Sea The Sparkle here for me at the $4.40 mark.

TIP: Sea The Sparkle

Race 2

Another good race. I found it tough to split the top three in the market here but eventually ended up with WRITTEN ERA on top. She was backed two weeks ago when scratched at the barriers, but atoned for that with a convincing win on the Heavy track at Sandown two weeks ago. Damian Lane sticks with her here and with race fitness on her side, she may have a slight advantage over those resuming from a spell. Barrier 3 gives her a cozy run, and I am happy to rely on D Lane to not get too far back or strung up in traffic. She ended last prep with two absolutely luckless runs in Group 3 company, so although her win first up was only in BM78 grade, she has scope to go on to better races. At $5 she is a good enough price to back here.

LYUBA is the one that just reads so well on paper. She's undefeated first up from a spell, carries 54kg after the claim for Allen, draws barrier 5 so should sit 4th one off the rail, and has reasonable form at both the track and the distance. She won over 1000m twice in her first two starts last campaign, so the 1100m first up is no issue, where as some others may be looking for more ground. I'll definitely be saving on her at $5.50. OREGON'S DAY has the ability to be the best horse in this race, but I can find a few negatives for her. Se maps to get a fair way back in the field here from barrier 9, she's never won first up, she's never run at the distance, and her best performance last prep came over 1600m. So the 1100m first up from a spell is a huge query here. RISQUE is a horse I really like, but is first up off a 497 day spell and carries all the weight. The blowout could be WORLD OF HOPE at $26.

TIP: Written Era

Race 3

This is nearly an impossible race to bet into, with as many as 10 chances, seven of which are first up from a spell. The two huge watches in the race come from the Weir yard. FURSA is a Group 2 winner over 1160m in South Africa, and ran 2nd by 0.8L in a Group 1 in Meydan. This is BM78 grade, a huge step down. But this is just her second run since that Group 1 back in April last year. First up in Australia here, did win a jump out at Ballarat though, and Williams taking the ride is a strong sign. The other horse first up for Weir is WA import QUILISTA who has only missed a place once in her career. Last prep she beat the highly talented Variation over 1400m, but her best is probably over the shorter trips. I think she'll measure up in better grade than this, but she does look short enough now at $4.60 in a hugely deep race. Love the booking of Damian Lane though, and she should use her speed from barrier 14. THEANSWERMYFRIEND may turn out to be the most talented horse in this field, but he's only placed once from three starts when first up from a spell. He's only won 1400m and beyond so 1100m should prove too slick.

DANUKI looks suited to run a good race at double figure odds. First up he was completely unsuited when leading straight into the fierce breeze with 60kg, so down to 59kg with barrier 1 at Caulfield should see him bounce back. DUSTY JACK looks big odds for a horse that I'm really keen to see progress this Spring. He won three on the bounce last prep and looks destined for better races this prep, but similarly 1100m from the horrible barrier is enough to look elsewhere. SAINT VALOREM won at big odds for us last start but had everything in his favour. He was undefeated second up and had a strong run race with strong winds which suited the horses with cover. He rises 2.5kg in weight here and will find himself in a tricky spot from barrier 2. In saying that, he's going well and has a great record at the track and distance so isn't completely hopeless. DEVIL'S PINCH has three wins and a second from four starts when first up. This is much harder than anything he's faced though, and the barrier also makes it tough. TANGO ROCK gets a 5kg weight swing on Saint Valorem and draws to get a nice run again. He can continue his good form at double figure odds. LAND OF PLENTY went close over 1100m first up last prep and will also go on to better races. Don't dismiss. Impossible betting race but purely based on it being 1100m, I'd have QUILISTA on top.

TIP: Quilista 

Race 4

A race where those with race fitness may be superior to the class horses. I've settled on two but neither are horses I ever back with any confidence. The first is RHYTHM TO SPARE who is rock bottom odds at $4.20 given his inconsistency. But he really finds another winnable race here. The claim for Stockdale brings him down to a weight less than what he carried last start when bolting in at Flemington, and the draw should allow him to just box seat and get the run of the race. He's got an uninspiring record at the track, but his two wins here have come from only four starts over the track and distance. He actually gets a 3kg weight swing in his favour on Amovatio, and he beat that horse by 2.5L last start. The value could be ONPICALO at $9.50. This horse has won three of his five starts over track and distance, and prior to last start he was going really well without getting any luck in his races. The jockey booking is a big negative, but at least he gets down to 52.5kg. His instructions really should be to lead at all costs in this field, and if he gets that position he'll be tough to run down. Rain helps. BIG DUKE is obviously the best horse in the race. I think he'll need the run but it really wouldn't surprise me if he won because he has panels on this field class-wise. PETROLOGY and MAGNAPAL can go close, and Weir may just be starting to get MOONOVERMANHATTAN into form. Keep FOUNDRY safe.

TIP: Rhythm To Spare / Onpicalo EW

Race 5

CATCHY looks one of the bets of the day here to me. David Hayes has said she will only run if the rain doesn't come, in which case Tulip will be scratched, and if the rain does come then Tulip will run and Catchy won't. If she does run, Catchy should be winning this. She will get out to 1600m but she is sharp enough to win over 1100m and I think she's got a bit of class on the rest of this field, so she's a clear top pick. If she doesn't run, TULIP will be the one I'm on because that will mean the track is in the Soft range. Her best will be over longer as well but once again, she has a class edge on many of these. The stable's third runner in the race is PLOVERSET who looks to be a value chance. Hayes said he doesn't think she can beat Catchy, but is a definite top 3 chance. I'd tend to agree, as she beat Madeenaty on debut before running 3rd to a very handy one in Shoals. Other value runners in the race include CROWN WITNESS who is flying and beat Madeenaty last start, and SEANNIE who comes across from WA and should be kept very safe. If Catchy runs, she's on top. If she doesn't run, Tulip goes on top with something on Ploverset and possibly Crown Witness.

TIP: Catchy (Best Bet)

Race 6

Tough race. JUKEBOX resumes here undefeated from two starts in the Summer. He was set to compete in the Golden Slipper but was scratched on vets advice due to dodgy feet and a dodgy walk. We haven't seen him since, and Ciaron Maher said he's practically grown a whole new foot in that time away. He wears standard racing tips today as opposed to the glue-on shoes he wore in his first prep. Trialled well leading in, Williams sticks with him and he should be very hard to beat here. But I'm taking him on. CLIFF'S EDGE is one horse I want to be on. He's also first up from a spell and the last time we saw him he beat Lone Eagle. He was put away straight after that with an eye on the Spring, and returns here without a public trial to go off. I think he's a pretty good horse and the early trickle of money suggests he is ready to win here. Nolen riding for Weir is a slight query, but at $6.50 I am more than happy to back him.

A THOUSAND DEGREES is a very interesting runner at $15. He makes his debut here, and to be doing that in a field this hot suggests he's a pretty good horse. What makes it even more eye-catching is that Tony McEvoy is the trainer, and when he sends horses to Melbourne they generally perform. So it must mean something to be sending one here on debut in a deep race with his number one rider Luke Currie on board. I'll be having something on him at the odds. Another horse that looks way over the odds is FULLY MAXED. Forget he went around last start when he was trapped wide in a very slowly run race with the windy conditions at Caulfield, and he was jumping from 1000m to 1400m. Look at his first up performance at Sandown when he bolted in coming from last to first to beat Bowerman, who has since gone on an won. If the track is Soft, he gets conditions to suit, and at $51 he represents plenty of value. VERANILLO is another I was keen on at double figure odds, but James Cummings said his latest trial was disappointing and he may not have come up so they will use this race to gauge how well he is going. KOBAYASHI worth including, LONE EAGLE not the worst.

TIP: Cliff's Edge / A Thousand Degrees & Fully Maxed EW

Race 7

The more I look at this race, the more I keep coming back to one horse, and that's STAR EXHIBIT. There's a few reasons why. If we look at the favourites, I think they're vulnerable. BLACK HEART BART deserves favouritism and given he's undefeated from four starts over this track and distance, it would be no surprise to see him win. But if the track hits the Soft range, it won't suit him. Weir has also said that while he's fit enough to win on the weekend, they've got him set to peak for the Memsie next start. So with the likelihood of rain and the possibility that the track is a touch wet, I will take him on. HARTNELL is on the second line of betting at $3.30, but he is also vulnerable I think. He's never won first up from seven starts - in fact he's only placed in three of those.

I understand that first up last prep he ran 2nd to Winx over 1400m, but the horses that finished behind him weren't world beaters. He is being set for the Caulfield Cup which is in two months' time; I highly doubt he is going to be fully wound up here. Has never won over this distance so I'll also be taking him on at the price. So we come back to STAR EXHIBIT. This horse has won three of his four starts when first up from a spell. He's won his only start over this track and distance (which was first up last prep), is undefeated on Soft ground, and draws to get a peach of a run. Brad Rawiller was actually glowing on radio when asked about this horse's ability, and made a point of saying he rates this horse very highly. If we look at Weir's other runners, TOSEN STARDOM has the ability to win but draws poorly and the booking of Ben Allen for a big race like this is a query, GAILO CHOP will need the run first up from injury, HUMIDOR can genuinely go close here but may need the run, and AMELIE'S STAR has never placed first up. So I think if we discount Bart and Hartnell, that leaves Star Exhibit with a terrific chance at $12 and I'm happy to have a decent bet each way here. MONTOYA'S SECRET typically needs her first up run but it wouldn't shock me to see her run a big race here.

TIP: Star Exhibit EW (Best Value)

Race 8

Very keen on VEGA MAGIC here. At his last start he was a Group 1 winner over this distance in Adelaide. His first up record is very good, and his record at the distance is even better, with eight wins from 11 starts. He carries all the weight as the class runner of the field, but I'm not sure that will matter, and at $5 I'm very keen to have an each way bet. All the money has been for BRAVE SMASH who has his first start in Australia for Darren Weir. He's an ex-Japanese horse, whose wins have come over 1500m and 1600m, though he was Group 3 placed over 1200m at his most recent start. The queries for me are, he wouldn't have been set purely for this race and he's not won over this distance. He's got a good first up record with three placings from four starts, but no wins.

Draws wide so I expect them to go back, which means he will need a good tempo. Damian Lane is a very positive booking, but there's just too many unknowns about this horse to be diving in at $3.60. Expect sharp improvement from CHOCOLATE HOLIC. He went backwards first up on the very Heavy track at Sandown so complete forget that. I would have liked to have seen him go to 1400m and not stay at 1200m, but in a field like this he has the ability to be very competitive back on firmer going. Lane jumps off him to ride Brave Smash which could be a hint. James Cummings was very bullish about how SOUCHEZ is going and it surprises me to see Craig Williams riding him and not Vega Magic. That points towards a good run here. SANTA ANA LANE and even DIVINE TEN are worth consideration.

TIP: Vega Magic EW

Race 9

Extremely wide open race to finish the day. WAYANKA and REVOLVING DOOR are probably unlikely to get a run here, and I'll be taking on Revolving Door from that barrier even if he does start. DIVINE MR ARTIE is ready to win but the jockey booking puts me off in a field this big. PORTMAN gets Craig Williams back on so can bounce back into form, but if you assess him based on last start then it's hard for me to take $4.40 here. TAHANEE is the big query runner here first up in Australia for Weir. Has done all of its recent racing in Dubai which is decent enough form. Rawiller rides from barrier 5 and she'll get her chance if she's good enough. I'd have something small on at $8. HERE TO THERE was a huge run at massive odds last start and from barrier 1 should get a nice enough run midfield.

The two I want to be on are OZI CHOICE and NESBO. Ozi's Choice was a big run last start when leading at Flemington and he only really got run down in the final 100m but stuck on well to only be beaten a length. Allen takes the ride today so gets a little bit of weight relief, and draws well in barrier 8. Now that he's fit and running well I really expect him to go close again here and he should either lead or settle right up on speed. At $6.50 he's a good bet. NESBO won at 50/1 first up over this track and distance, and he's deliberately been given a bit of time since that run because he does his best racing fresh. He's won four from six when first up so the spacing is something I like. Has a good record at the track and distance and draws for a cozy run. Despite the rise in weight he can run a big race once again at $34.

TIP: Ozi Choice / Nesbo EW

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