Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Canterbury on Wednesday, September 23rd.
It might be a seven-race midweek card at Canterbury but it's a Saturday-quality meeting, with plenty of good horses, competitive races and deep and interesting betting markets to look forward to. Tim Geers has gone through every race and offered his tips and best bets below!
Best Bet: Race 3 – (3) Cisco Bay E/W (if the track is soft)
Best Value: Race 7 – (4) Kirwin’s Lane
Backing horses from the Waller stable with apprentices on is a low percentage play, and backing this horse is a low percentage play, but I like the set up of (1) Betcha Flying here. She ran 3rd to Discharged and Kingsheir in Saturday grade last start. Discharged has since come out and won again to frank that form, and Kingsheir looks tough to beat in today’s last race. She’s third up today, draws barrier 2 which could see her land on the fence, and it’s going to take a good ride from Stockdale but it looks a winnable race for her. You could make a genuine case for all of (2) Nimalee, (3) Savigne, (4) Pierrless and (5) Archanna. It’s a very tricky opening race so no need to get too involved, but something small on the 1.
(13) Yulong Code raced without much luck in his first preparation but he’s been trialling well ahead of his return to the track today. No surprise to see James McDonald booked straight up and they’ve also kept him as a colt rather than geld him which is interesting. He comes into barrier 4 so should get an ideal run (if the rail isn’t on fire) and should be hard to beat. His stablemate (5) Kukeracha is an interesting runner. He was an impressive winner on debut at Geelong, and then raced behind Peltzer and Rothfire. That’s Group 1 form and although well beaten by both those horses, he didn’t get all that much luck. He comes into barrier 1 after scratchings which is always an advantage at Canterbury. Bowman goes on, he gets soft ground and I think he’s the value at $11. (12) Sweet Reply ran well in a very narrow defeat first up at Newcastle and can improve, however the gate hurts. (2) Argentus can run well again.
Very keen on just two horses here. (3) Cisco Bay gets absolutely everything in his favour to win today. Most importantly, he gets soft ground. He’s had 15 goes on good ground and has never won, but has five wins from nine starts on soft ground. His only prior start over this track and distance was a win. He starts from barrier 2 here and should be able to find the fence as the horse to his inside doesn’t have tremendous speed out of the gates. Big jockey change with McEvoy replacing Brock Ryan. He looks an incredibly strong chance and $5.50 is a huge price. (4) Miyake should appreciate a decent tempo and comes into this off the back of a good first up run over the mile at Warwick Farm. Steps up to 1900m today; he’s had two previous goes at this track and distance, resulting in a win and a 2nd. JMac sticks and he looks the horse to beat. Backing Cisco Bay each way and saving on Miyake, but I'll only be betting if the track is soft.
Good little race, and the first furlong could determine the result here. (6) Mr Mosaic trialled enormously leading into his first up run and he replicated that on raceday, bolting in by 3.3L to defy a huge betting drift. He drew barrier 2 on that occasion and found the lead easily, but he might have a bit more work to do early from barrier 7 here. If he can find the lead and the rail early, he’s going to take plenty of catching, so the early part of the race will be the key. (2) Segalas looks the value at $10. She’s got a good first up record and Bowman goes straight on for her return today. She won first up last prep, she has a good record on soft ground, draws well in 2 and should relish a good tempo. (4) Chat has been trialling very well but hasn’t done much in his two prior first up runs. I don’t think he’s ever trialled as well though, however the map is a very tricky one for him. (7) Switched and (8) Axe not hopeless in a good contest.
I was with (9) Harto first up at Randwick where it was a bit of a horror show and I’m going to give her another go today. Kerrin McEvoy is replaced by Nash Rawiller, who rode her in two of her three trials leading into her first up run. He’s going to need to produce something good here because barrier 10 is an awkward one. Hopefully he is aggressive early and puts her into the race. (5) Night Flyer looks the value with JMac booked for Brad Widdup. She improved from her first run to her second run back from a spell and the horse that beat her last start has since run well again. Drawn well and looks a major player at a good each way price. Interested to see how (12) Tilia Rose goes. She won on debut but was well beaten last time we saw her back in February. The talent is there but the query is whether they can come back and perform as three-year-olds. Chances don’t end there.
(1) Big Parade tips himself after his demolition job last start. That was his second start for new trainer Mark Newnham and his first start with the blinkers on. He scored by 5.5L carrying the same weight as he does today and over the same track and distance that he lines up over today. He did draw barrier 1 last start which obviously gave him all the favours in finding the lead and the rail, but he should find that position again today from barrier 5. Looks the winner if he repeats his last-start performance. The interesting runner and the value in the race is (6) Testifier. He resumes from a 44-week spell. He won his first three starts last prep but obviously had issues last prep when failing in his two starts. He’s had a long time off the track and resumes today with three trials under the belt. Runners from this stable have been improving with racing recently, so that could well be the case here, but I think he’s got a bit of quality at his best and the odds look juicy to find out where he’s at. (13) Dream Circle is another interesting runner at odds with the aid of barrier 1.
(2) Kingsheir was good in defeat last start, when he stepped up to Saturday grade and finished 1.3L off Discharged in 2nd. Discharged then came out and won again last weekend, so the form is strong and the drop back to midweek company today should see Kingsheir very hard to beat. Barrier 9 is admittedly a tricky draw, and the booking of Nash Rawiller an interesting one, but he’s a horse on the up and is still open to improvement. (4) Kirwin’s Lane might be looking for a touch further than this, and whether he’s sharp enough to win first up is a query, but Bowman goes straight on for John O’Shea and they strike at about 50% together in the past 12 months, so it’s an eye-catching jockey booking. Futhermore, O’Shea has a terrific strike rate here at Canterbury. He’s trialled nicely and draws well in barrier 4, so I wouldn’t say he’s hopeless at double figure odds here. (9) Achiever was my best bet last start and did everything but win, going down narrowly to Baanone. He had every conceivable chance there and this is no easier. JMac jumps off and gets on the stablemate too.
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