Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for Canterbury on Wednesday, April 22nd.
The track is rated a Soft 5 but with the good forecast it should be upgraded to a Good 4 for race day. The rail is in the true position.
Check out our thoughts on every race, complete with tips and best bets for the meeting below!
Canterbury Racing Tips: Wednesday, April 22nd
Best Bet: Race 4 - (6) Flinders
Best Value: Race 7 (see preview below)
(5) Bellevue Star returns to the races today with two trials under the belt. Tim Clark goes straight on for Waterhouse/Bott which tells me they are very likely to lead, and that could make her very tough to run down. With $8.00 on offer, I'll be happy to back her each way given Canterbury often plays to those on pace. (1) Kiku started $21 on debut but ran a bottler, getting within 0.2L of the winner at Kensington. She comes here on the quick back-up and she'd just have to repeat that performance to win this. (6) Willinga Panache gets JMac on and she trialled alongside Kiku leading into this. That was her only trial, while Kiku was having her second trial. I couldn't really separate them much, if anything Kiku went a touch better but Willinga Panache obviously had more improvement to come. JMac goes on and I wouldn't be losing on her at $9.00. (3) Elizabeel was popular on debut and may have had an excuse, caught three-wide for much of the race and it was on a heavy deck. Back onto firm ground here with a better draw should see her go close. Respecting her SP from her debut.
(5) Bellevue Star E/W
$8.00
(5) Stoltz makes his debut here for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace on the back of two encouraging trials. He led them up in the first and wasn't put under too much pressure but was passed late by two other horses, however his second trial was particularly eye-catching, sitting off the leaders and cruising home under a hold late. He moved really nicely and I think he shapes as a good winning chance on debut from barrier 4. He won't want to give them too much of a start but he should find a spot close to the speed and prove very hard to beat. (1) Achiever ran 2nd on debut, albeit beaten 4.5L, but he did get trapped wide without cover throughout. Draws well in barrier 2 today and should go close.(3) Inveigle has had three trials to get fit for his debut here and with Tim Clark on I suspect we'll see him ridden further forward than he has been in his trials. If he finds the front he could take some catching. (8) Vucetich has to be respected - he's the only Cummings/McDonald combo runner of the day.
This is a fairly awful race to bet into. I think we've got a false favourite here in (7) Perfect Impression, who comes up $3.00. He did run 3rd at Warwick Farm first up, but he was beaten as the odds-on favourite at Newcastle last time out. Anthony Cummings hasn't had a single winner from 18 runners at Canterbury this season so I don't think he's a bet at the $3.00 we're getting. (1) Activation looks a bet at $9.50 though. He was beaten nearly 14L on the heavy ground at Warwick Farm last start but he pretty clearly didn't handle the conditions. Prior to that he ran 4th at Warwick Farm behind the likes of Twice As Special, Battleground and Flinders. The second and third horses have both come out and won since placing there, and Activation finished the race off pretty well out wide. He gets Hugh Bowman on today, replacing Glyn Schofield and he also gets the blinkers applied for the first time. Back on top of the ground is a positive, the only negative is the fact he races well off the pace, which can make it hard at Canterbury. In any case, the price looks good. (4) Epiline gets JMac on for Waller and getting back to firm ground should be a huge positive for her given her Japanese breeding on both sides. She was a long way off the first two last start but the form out of that race is very solid and I would expect to see her ridden much more positively from barrier 2 today. She's drawn wide in both starts to date and that's meant they've taken her back to the rear of the field. (8) Shuhood could be ridden aggressively here with Tim Clark on board for Waterhouse/Bott. That will be a big advantage at Canterbury. She'll take some running down at double figure odds. Taking $6.00 Epiline and $9.50 Activation.
Value: (1) Activation $9.50
Keen to stick with (6) Flinders here, who was our best bet of the day last start and finds another very winnable race today. He trialled exceptionally leading into this preparation and he was a moral beat first up when held up the majority of the straight. He atoned for that defeat by winning last start when stepping up to the mile on the wet track. Back onto firm ground today which isn't an issue. The only negative is he's drawn barrier 9, so the tactics will be interesting. Normally a wide draw for Waller runners means they go back, but hopefully JMac gets it right because it can be hard to make up ground if you're too far back at Canterbury. He looks proressive though and looks the one to beat. (4) Maybach can improve today. He always needs his first run back from a spell and he came into his own when getting up to this sort of trip last prep. The blinkers come off but Hyeronimus stays on so he'll take up a forward position and run well. (7) Miyake should bounce back with the firmer ground - se won second up last prep after an ordinary first up run. (9) Segrill has won two on the bounce and the form is actually quite reasonable out of those races so she shouldn't be dismissed.
I was with (1) Romantic Whisper last start and I have to stick with her again today. She looked the winner coming around the turn last start, leading by several lengths, before getting a stitch at the 200m and being run down. I think the horse that won is pretty smart and if Romantic Whisper can set up a break on the turn here at Canterbury, it will be awfully hard to run her down. (3) Regimental Band drops back to Wednesday grade from a Group 3. She wasn't suited in that race, sitting four-wide without cover at the back of the field on a wet track. Huge jockey change today with James McDonald replacing Glyn Schofield. (4) Trajection had no luck at all when beaten as an odds-on favourite at Wyong last start. She has a tough draw in barrier 9 but is racing well. (2) Loveseat returned with a good run at Warwick Farm over the mile, beaten 2.5L. Big query staying at 1550m today rather than stepping up in distance. The blowout at odds could be the Hawkes runner (6) Head Noises. She's switched over from Mick Kent and is the Hawkes' only runner of the day. They go well at Canterbury with a 21% strike rate. She was given a very easy trial but notably she returns with concussion plates off. Her racing pattern might not be so good for Canterbury but I wouldn't discount her from the numbers.
(1) Romantic Whisper
$3.00
Really competitive race but there's two at odds I'll be playing. (2) Invasion Day makes his Australian debut here for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. He was a winner of two races in the UK. He's had two good hitouts at the trials leading into this, and although they weren't visually outstanding, they should have him well prepared for a first up tilt over 1550m. Nash Rawiller is a positive booking and the horse has run 2nd in two previous first up runs. I won't be letting him go around at $12. (5) Hostage Of War also looks over the odds at $16. He put two wins together back at the end of January/start of February, both of which were at this track. He had six weeks off before his last run and then Sam Clipperton was booked and he was a big drifter in betting. Clearly he had a little setback and needed that run, but he returns to Canterbury now and JMac goes on for Waller. Expecting a sharp improvement in his form. (6) Lancer is running well but he keeps getting going too late in his races. They did intend to ride him closer to the speed last start but it didn't eventuate. The blinkers come off today, it will be interesting to see where he lands, but I backed him last start and am finding it hard to tip him again today at $4.60.
Value: (2) Invasion Day $12
I've run around in circles on this race. I don't think there's any question that (7) Adelong is the horse to beat. She's won three of her four career starts and her only defeat was at the hands of Lashes when they just way overdid it up front. She's had a break and returns here with a trial win under the belt. JMac is booked first up which is a very positive sign but there is some decent speed in this race and she's drawn wide. Brad Widdup said he would have liked to have got another trial into her but couldn't, so if she gets trapped wide or caught in a speed battle fresh, she may be tested late. There's a few at big odds here to have something on and include in the quaddie. (3) Blazing Miss looks a bet at $9.00. She's also first up from a spell but she's had two trials. Her first up record is really being underestimated. She bolted in first up last prep at Warwick Farm, but her first up runs prior to that are what should also be looked at. Back in May she ran 3rd to a horse called Exceedence and in her first prep she ran 2nd to Cosmic Force. That's legitimate Group 1 form. She draws inside Adelong here so can either kick up and lead or take the sit behind a hot tempo, and at the price she looks a tremendous each way bet. (4) Nictock can be backed at $34. He's had two runs back from a lengthy spell now and he's had legitimate excuses in both runs back. First up he sat wide without cover, so he was always going to puncture off a 63-week spell, and last start he got a heavy track, which he doesn't go well on. Back onto firm ground, third up, Bowman on, goes well at the track and distance and draws well. (9) Anna's Joy is another at $35 that should be considered. She's often around the mark first up, with five placings from six starts. She ran 2nd in her only previous start at the track and I thought her two trials leading into this were quite good. She draws well in barrier 3 and it wouldn't shock me at all to see her run a big race at big odds. I'll take on the favourite at the odds with a decent bet at Blazing Miss and something small on Nictock and Anna's Joy.
Value: (4) Nictock $34 & (9) Anna's Joy $35
Difficult race to close out the day. I'll give one more chance to (4) Dunbrody Power at $8.00. I was with her last start at Warwick Farm where I thought she had her chance, but at the odds I'll give her one more go back on firm ground. She won over 1100m here last preparation when drawn wide and she faces a similar scenario here from barrier 11. She was only a length off the winner last start and with Nash keeping the ride, I think she should be competitive here with a few further up in the market brining some questionable form. (5) Beach Baby should come across from the wide barrier and run another big race. He was only run down late last start. Back onto firm ground is a positive for him too.
(4) Dunbrody Power E/W
$8.00
