Friday Night NRL action continues in Brisbane, as the Eels welcome back captain Mitch Moses, as they look for their first win in a month when they take on the surging Broncos, winners of five straight. With the Eels just two points clear of the Titans at the bottom of the table, there’s plenty on the line for both teams in this matchup.
Broncos vs Eels Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 21
Broncos the Dark Horse of the Competition?
The Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the competition right now, with Head Coach Michael Maguire having them peaking at the right time with five straight wins. Last week, the Broncos got some much-needed rest with the bye, with their last matchup seeing them getting by the Titans 26-14 at Cbus Super Stadium. The Broncos didn’t look quite as good during this game, with a sizeable hole left by Payne Haas who was rested due to an injury. Despite this, the Broncos were never truly in danger, as they shot out to a 20-2 lead shortly after half time, before cruising to the 12-point win. Kotoni Staggs continued his purple patch, running for 236 metres, breaking the line once, setting up a try, and busting five tackles, whilst Reece Walsh again looked dangerous every time he touched the ball. With Ben Hunt meshing into the spine over the past few weeks, the Broncos are looking like a real dark horse for the 2025 Premiership, after looking likely to miss the 8 altogether just over a month ago.
Eels Staring Down the Barrel of the Spoon
The Eels come in off the back of a resounding 40-16 loss at the hands of the Raiders last Saturday afternoon in the Nation’s capital. It was the Eels’ third straight loss, with their form looking increasingly poor over that period. The Eels were actually right in the game last week against the Raiders, leading the home side 16-12 at the break, and they held that lead up until the 52nd minute, when the Raiders regained the lead thanks to Jed Stuart’s second try. It was all downhill from there, as the Raiders ran in five unanswered tries in 27 minutes to run away with the 24-point win. This week, the Eels welcome back halfback and captain Mitch Moses, in a timely boost for a team that is staring down the barrel of their first wooden spoon since 2018. With Isaiah Iongi out, and the Eels apparently still reluctant to play Dylan Brown, Mitch Moses is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting if the Eels are a shot at snapping the Broncos 5-game streak this weekend.
Broncos vs Eels Recent History
The Eels had a tremendous record against the Broncos between the 2017 and 2022 seasons, however it has been all the Broncos lately, winners of the past four, and five of the last six matchups between the teams.
They met twice last season, with the Eels hosting the Broncos at CommBank Stadium in round 10, where the Broncos closed 9.5-point road favourites, with a total of 45.5. With both teams missing their starting halfbacks, it was the Broncos who dominated the matchup, winning 30-14.
They met again in round 25 at Suncorp Stadium, where this time the Broncos closed 7.5-point favourites, with a total of 51.5. With the Broncos missing Payne Haas, Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh, they managed to sneak home 30-24, despite trailing 18-12 after 55 minutes.
Mitch Moses’ Return Won’t be Enough for Spluttering Eels’ Attack
The Broncos opened 13.5-point favourites on the look ahead, before re-opening at the same number on Monday. This number hasn’t moved all week, which would indicate the market was confident in the return of Mitch Moses as early as last week. I make the Broncos a 14.5-point favourite, so I wouldn’t say I see a lot of value in the market here. The Broncos have been a lot better at covering the spread over the past couple of months, and the Eels are also a team that likes to lose by 13+, so I would lean towards the Broncos covering here, however I can’t make it my best bet for this one.
Looking towards the total, and it opened 47.5 and has been bet up to 48.5. This is smack bang on my total for the game, so I fully agree with the move from a numbers perspective. However, the Broncos have looked far more like an unders team lately, mainly down to their vastly improved defence. However, given how poor the Eels’ defence has been, I struggle to advocate for a full game under. So, despite the return of Mitch Moses, I’m going to back the Broncos to hold the Eels under their team total in this matchup, which currently sits around 16.5. My model has the Eels scoring 16 points in this matchup, so this isn’t a huge edge at all, however I like the way the Broncos are playing defence right now, and with the massive changes over the past few weeks to the Eels spine, I’ll take this bet.
Eels (team total) under 16.5 points
$1.95 (1.5 units)
Broncos vs Eels Player Prop Bet: Shiba to Destroy Eels Right Edge
Our Best Prop Bet: Shibasaki 1+ Try
The Eels right edge defence has been one of the worst all season, and this week they get one of the most potent left edges in the NRL. Gehamat Shibasaki has been a revelation this season and has looked even better since returning from Origin. Lock him in for a try this week.
Gehamat Shibasaki (1+ try)
$2.05 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi: Broncos vs Eels
Leg 1: Broncos (13+) – If I had to bet on the margin of this contest, it would be a Broncos victory by margin.
Leg 2: G Shibasaki (1+ try) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: Z Lomax (1+ try) – Lomax has his halfback returning this week, and I can only imagine that the Eels will be running and kicking at Josiah Karapani all game, with their x-factor Lomax running at him. Expect another try for the Blues’ winger.
Broncos vs Eels Better Odds & Match Info
Location: Suncorp Stadium - Brisbane
Weather: Fine, 15 degrees
Odds: Broncos ($1.24) vs Eels ($4.10)
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Where to Watch Broncos vs Eels
Watch the Broncos vs Eels match on Channel 9, as well as live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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