Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Bendigo on Wednesday, July 29th.
Midweek metro racing in Victoria takes place at Bendigo this Wednesday, with eight races on what should be a good track. Trent Crebbin has done the form for every race in the card and offered his tips and best bets below!
Best Bet: Race 8 - (6) Express Pass
Best Value: Race 7 - (15) Lonado
Not a race I’m particularly keen on. The raced horses haven’t shown much and there’s been no jumpout star in my opinion. I’d suggest from the jockey bookings (8) Goldiluva is the pick of the Busuttin/Young debutants over (9) Tyche Goddess, interestingly both by Teofilo. One that could improve lengths is (7) Mr Roger. This gelding was beaten over 11L on debut in a handy maiden. On breeding you can make a strong case that he hated the wet track. Up to 1400m on a good 4 could spark something, and you’ll get huge odds on the exchange. (1) Brazen Force took on a couple of handy horses early on before resuming with a 9.3L 3rd. The two favourites (2) The Duke Of Hazard and (5) Sippity Sup obviously have claims, with a slight leaning to the former off two good synthetic runs. Pretty weak race so I’ll spec Mr Roger late in betting.
Incredibly open. I think (9) Royal Gun Salute is close to a win. His two runs have both been very good behind a couple of handy ones. Draws barrier 2 here so should get a nice run on speed. (12) Zeppa should get a cosy run too. His run on debut down the straight was good and a recent jumpout with (10) The Catch was good. The Catch has claims as well but will need a good ride to find a handy spot from a wide barrier. (14) Perfect World started hard in the market on debut in a good race before returning in another good race at Sandown, hitting the line strongly. If they can make ground early look for him late from a wide barrier.
Another fairly average race, this time for the stayers. (4) Blandford Lad steps up in grade after two convincing wins in a row, the first at this track and distance. I’m happy enough to take him on up in grade and on good ground, which he’s never won on from 6 attempts. The other favourite is (7) Flag Edition who would be my pick of the two market fancies. He’ll appreciate the better ground after a poor showing on heavy last start but did start $15 last start against (2) Converging who started $26 and beat him home by 7 lengths. Converging is very consistent and will be thereabouts. Going to spec (1) Light Pillar who is 3rd up in Australia. His first up run over 1400m was solid for an out and out stayer before a poor showing 2nd up jumping sharply in trip when perhaps he was a bit flat 2nd up. His overseas form over longer distances is better than these, and the Maher/Eustace stayers have been in form of late. They also go very well at Bendigo and John Allen sticks. At the $15 available he looks a great play here in a race full of usual suspects.
Again looking for value in an open race, and I think (9) Wish I Might can win this at double figures. The barrier will make things tricky but she’s building nicely in two runs this preparation. First up over 1100m she wasn’t far off Our Wind Spirit before a solid showing 2nd up behind classy filly She Shao Fly. 3rd up at 1400m on a drier track looks ideal, but she will need the race shape to run on. (8) Starden Lass’s 2nd up run narrow defeat to Pill Box would go close in this, but she was disappointing as favourite in Adelaide last start. (3) Clever Blaze is racing well and should settle handy. Drops back to 1400m after a stable change but did beat the handy Scantoon who goes around later two back. (2) Lady Of Flanders started $51 last start behind El Questro and Beauty Bolt at Flemington but ran very well. Her form prior wasn’t flash, and she hasn’t won for nearly two years but does strike a weak race and draws the inside.
(14) Spirit Medium hasn’t raced for a while, but took on some handy 3yo races, running 2nd to La Falaise at start number 2. From the good barrier Rawiller should find a lovely spot, perhaps even in front. (3) Desert Dreamer won nicely first up. He started $2.70 against handy filly Parmie this time last year. (10) Inspired Sun had no hope from back in the field last start. His run prior when 3rd behind Wicklow Town as a $3.30 shot would win this, but he draws wide and will get back again, giving main danger Spirit Medium a huge head start. If they’re starting to come wide as can happen here, he probably goes close. (13) Shandy will improve further into the campaign up in trip but is a nice mare. You could make a case for nearly all of these, so I’m hoping the map advantage of Spirit Medium will be enough to get her over the line.
The run of (2) Cupid’s Bow last start was enormous from last at Cranbourne, recording the fastest final 400/200m splits of the meeting. Mcneil replaces Neindorf, who can be a touch negative on get back horses, and a repeat of that performance would go close here. (5) Bella Amore was in need of the run first up but her form in the city last preparation was good, the highlight a narrow 2nd to Kuramae. (3) Norma Stars is very consistent and broke through for a win on the synthetic last start. Her run two back behind Rich Hips was very good and she should cross to the lead from out wide. (12) Refreshed was in the market there but failed on the heavy ground from well back. She can bounce back on a good track. One at huge odds that can run well is (7) Brazen Princess. She broke her maiden at start three, beating a subsequent winner and running the fastest last 400/200m of the meeting. She settled handy in her first two runs so can be close from barrier one. She jumps a long way in grade but could surprise.
The favourite here is (9) Scantoon who does look the hardest to beat. He couldn’t quite get there last start at Geelong with the winner enjoying the rail bias. His run over the 1600m two back when 3rd to Walking Flying is excellent form, although interestingly the horse has never seen a good track. I want to make a case for (1) Reformist, who would prefer a wet track but has won twice on good surfaces. I thought his run first up in Melbourne behind Boomstock was very good. 2nd up last preparation he was desperately unlucky at Canterbury when held up badly for the straight. Draws perfectly to sit on speed and can win at double figures. Two of these come out of a hot race at Flemington. (14) Rapid Romance started $31 there and was given none, racing wide without cover off midfield before trying to improve into the race 5 wide and dropping out. (15) Lonado was back last and stuck to the inside, picking up very nicely over the last 200m to finish 8th, beaten 3.7L. He ran the 4th fastest closing sectionals of that race and the quickest 1000-800m split just to put himself into the race. Dwayne Dunn rides backmarkers very well and replaces Lewis German here. If they are coming wide by this point of the day, I think Lonado is tremendous value. Happy to back both Lonado and Reformist with equal stakes, making Lonado the better result.
Easily the race of the day with some handy types going around. Really keen to see (6) Express Pass return after a gelding operation. This 3yo has taken on some of the best horses in the country, running a close up 3rd to Dalasan in a Danehill beating home Super Seth and Hawker Hurricane. First up last preparation he arguably should’ve won down the straight over 1000m, just going down to Excess Funds who subsequently won the Inglis Dash impressively. The 1100m is a good starting point fresh and the gelding operation should do wonders for the horse who has raced greenly before. Just needs luck from barrier 4 to be far too strong late in my opinion. The clear danger is (10) Acumen who was a touch disappointing first up on a soft track. He’s clearly at his best on dry ground and was excellent in his Sydney 3yo campaign. The main advantage he has over the favourite is the map as Teo Nugent should be able to cross and lead the field. If Express Pass strikes traffic, Acumen could be off and gone. Next best is (3) Ginger Jones who gave a very much in form Elite Legacy 3.5kg first up and only went down by a head. He’s a pretty handy horse with group/stakes horses littered throughout his form. They do look the 3 winning hopes, but I think Express Pass wins with clear air and does look the best on the day.
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