Ascot Super Saturday Preview & Betting Tips

November 20th 2015, 10:28am, By: tim_tips

Welcome to our preview of Super Saturday, the first day of Perth's Spring Racing Carnival, which features a Group 1 double header with the Winterbottom Stakes and the Railway Stakes. The two Group 1's are supported by the Group 2 WA Guineas and four Listed races. Despite having rain earlier in the week the weather has cleared up and the Perth sun is shining once again and the forecast for Saturday is 37 degrees! The track should be in the Good 3 or 4 range and the rail is out 3m. The major thing to keep an eye on in the earlier races is how the track is playing. There have been whispers from jockeys that the track could heavily favour the inside of the track, so if the leaders win the first race it could be a sign that the rail is hot.

Crown Perth Winterbottom Stakes 1200m

Despite the big field this looks to be a race without much depth in terms of the number of horses genuinely good enough to win at Group 1 level, especially with many of the fancied chances drawn very wide. There does look to be plenty of speed in the race but if Buffering finds the lead, which I expect he will, he will be tough to run down. 

BUFFERING: The class horse of the field by the length of the straight. If he drew inside barrier 7 he would be $3.00 but even so, I think the $4.00 on offer is value. We are talking about a Melbourne Group 1 winner who ran 0.6L behind Delectation and Chautauqua last start. I think he leads and if the rails hot, he wins.

FAST 'N' ROCKING: Fantastic winner two starts ago in Melbourne where he defeated The Quarterback by over 2 lengths, and that horse then came out and won over the Flemington carnival. Last start ran admirably in a hot Manikato Stakes. That form sees him a top chance here and the good gate helps his cause.

WATERMAN'S BAY: Ran 2nd in this race last year behind Magnifisio and has performed well in Group company in Melbourne too. Returned to the track at the start of November with a good 2nd and he looks set to run another big race. Barrier 11 is the negative.

SHINING KNIGHT: I find it really interesting that this horse runs 1st up here. He boasts a fantastic 1st up record (5:3-1-1) and he should be tuned up and ready to fire. The Williams/Peters/Pike combination is obviously a huge factor and barrier 2 allows them a few options. Value chance.

DAWN APPROACH: Didn't appreciate the soft track or the 1400m last start so the drop back to 1200m is a better option, but barrier 15 kills any chance he has of winning here.

ROMMEL Certainly a horse that I will be keeping safe. Went to Melbourne and recorded a Group 3 win before going for a spell. Comes into this race 1st up but he will be much better off over a mile and not at WFA Group 1 just yet.

ROCK MAGIC: Nice win last start over Waterman's Bay where he was first up from a short let up. Tends to mix his form though and he won't be quite good enough at WFA Group 1 level.

AKHEDASSET: Group 3 winner two starts back but that was in a 4 horse field. Aiming too high here.

LIBERTY'S GEM: Racing in good form and has an imposing record at this track. He's undefeated over the 1200m at Ascot and from barrier 5 he shapes as an each-way chance.

CHECKPOINT: This runner is one I am also keeping safe first up from over a year off the track. He's very talented on his day and if he's tackling this first up from such a long time off he must be going well. He's never missed a place first up and has placed 6/7 times over this course and distance. Might be in need of the run but he holds terrific form behind Elite Belle and Barakey from when we saw him last. 50/1 is a good each-way bet.

MADASSA: Holds a great record but all of his wins have come in much easier grade than this! Won a trial by 7 lengths leading into this but the barrier makes his job tougher than it already was. 

SUJET: Very talented horse on his day and comes into this first up from a spell. His first up record is fantastic with 3 wins from 4 starts. From barrier 16 he will find himself towards the back of the field and should be rattling home. Each-way.

MAGNIFISIO: Last year's winner of this race and she ran a cracker behind Black Heart Bart last start. Her chances are severely hampered by being drawn in the carpark (barrier 17). Hard to see her repeating last year's win but she should go well.

COOL TRADE: Decent horse on her day and she pulled up lame after failing last start. The inside barrier really enhances her chances and she holds a great record over this track and distance. Whether she is good enough is another question. Pass.

LUCKY STREET: He was the dominant 2YO in WA at the start of this year and returned to his best with a big win last start. He has plenty of speed and he should come across with Buffering and sit outside him if he chooses to lead. We've seen 3YO's tackle Buffering before though and plenty have failed. 

SILVERSTREAM: 3/3 so far this preparation having gone through her grades. Steps up to Group 1 WFA here though which means she only gets 2kg off 5-time Group 1 winner Buffering! Damien Oliver booked to ride and gate 7 is a positive but this is a very tough ask.

Summary

BUFFERING has come here before and won this race and this year's edition looks very winnable once again. Despite drawing awkwardly he should find the lead and be very hard to run down, especially with the bias that is apparently set to favour the inside. I think his price is also a bit of value so very happy to be backing him. FAST 'N' ROCKING is normally a class below Buffering but with the speed expected to be pretty hot he should get things to suit him. Gets a lovely run from barrier 3 and will be charging home. SHINING KIGHT, CHECKPOINT and SUJET are all very interesting runners first up from a spell, while WATERMAN'S BAY can go close with the right run. 

1st BUFFERING
2nd SHINING KNIGHT
3rd FAST 'N' ROCKING
4th CHECKPOINT

 

James Boags Premium Railway Stakes 1600m

The clash of the big three in Black Heart Bart, Delicacy and Real Love but they've all drawn wide which is sure to make things even more interesting. Chris Waller sends Good Project over, who also draws wide, while Team Hawkes have entered Messene, who draws favourably in 2. Tough race to work out with so many things to consider.

BLACK HEART BART: Has returned in super order winning all 3 starts this prep in quite impressive style. He lumps the top weight here but he won with 59kg last start and Delicacy was back in 3rd, but she was first up as opposed to Bart being 3rd up. I think he can carry the weight and wouldn't be surprised if he won. He's good enough.

MESSENE: Team Hawkes sent him back to Sydney as he was no good the Melbourne direction of running. He ran well in a couple of races in Sydney, particularly behind Winx, which is certainly good enough for this! Draws very favourably in barrier 2 but this way of going is the same as Melbourne which is where he struggles.

DELICACY: Returned with a decent effort first up when finishing 3rd to Black Heart Bart. She was first up over 1400m on that occasion so she will improve coming into this. The distance is still short of her best but she's the classiest horse in the field. Barrier hurts big time and you just have to hope horses are making ground throughout the day. Pike goes with her so that's a good hint.

FUCHSIA BANDANA: Only knows how to go one speed - fast. She will definitely lead from barrier 1 and if there is a bias towards the inside all day then that brings her right into calculations. 

REAL LOVE: Perth Cup winner last season and returned from a spell with a fantastic Group 3 win over 1400m. Pike jumps off her in favour of Delicacy but he's chosen wrong before. I have a feeling they may even roll forward with her and try their luck. Oliver on board is a positive, she's a good chance.

WINK AND A NOD: Dominant through the winter but she's found her level as the better horses returned for the Spring. She just about dead-heated with Black Heart Bart two starts ago and a repeat of that would have her in this but I doubt she can do it.

BALMONT GIRL: She's one that's really favoured by the good barrier. She's been crying out for more ground and while she gets that here she may be looking for even further. Knockout hope.

BASS STRAIGHT: Not going well enough to win this.

BATTLE HERO: Progressive type that was touched off by Hazzabeel last start. Drops to 53kg and will get a lovely run from barrier 6 but would need to improve a few lengths to win this.

GOOD PROJECT: Really interesting runner. His form throughout the Melbourne Spring was very good. Charged home to finish 2nd behind Malaguerra who then came out and won again a few days later. He won't know himself with only 53kg and if he manages to get cover from barrier 12 he can give this a shake. We saw Waller do it with Moriarty so don't be surprised if he does something similar here.

HAZZABEEL: Finally broke through again when he was very much suited by the step up to 1500m at his fourth run back from a spell. The step up to 1600m should be no problem and from barrier 14 he should cross over to sit outside Fuchsia Bandana. This is much harder though.

MR UTOPIA: Returns back home to Perth after spending a while in Melbourne with Robert Smerdon. He was expected to run well last start but went average, but he does have a good record here and with 53kg from barrier 7 he will get a great run. Place chance.

MY SISTER LIL: Disappointing last start and this is much harder anyway. Doesn't look like she will exactly relish the 1600m either.

SPECIAL DELIVERY: Progressive 4YO who has won 4 of his last 5 starts but this is a massive step up in class and he looks tested.

TOWER OF LONHRO: This is one I'm keen on at huge odds. I've been saying for weeks to back this horse at his next start and this is it. He ran a great race to finish 3rd behind Hazzabeel last start and he is 4/4 when 3rd up from a spell so clearly he will be peaking for this race. Never missed a place over 1600m before and he won't know himself with only 53kg. Best roughie innn the race at a huge 40/1.

Summary

This is a really tough race to work out with all of the main hopes drawn in the car park. As aforementioned, it will be important to see what bias, if any, is noticeable throughout the earlier races. But we have to assume they will all get their chance when trying to pick the winner. BLACK HEART BART has taken all before him so far this prep. The 1600m suits him better than any of the other leading hopes and the weight probably isn't enough to stop him. He can win. DELICACY is the best horse in the field in my opinion and she is much better suited with a little bit more distance and her first up run under her belt. She can turn the tables on Bart. REAL LOVE returned with an impressive win first up and with Oliver booked to ride she rates very well. Interstate raiders GOOD PROJECT and MESSENE can measure up, while TOWER OF LONHRO is the best roughie in the race at huge odds.

1st DELICACY
2nd GOOD PROJECT
3rd BLACK HEART BART
4th TOWER OF LONHRO

 

Other Tips

Race 1 LUNAR ECLIPSE

Race 2 LIBERTY RISE / ZOETOMTAYA E/W

Race 3 SHEIDEL

Race 4 RESONATES

Race 5 CELEBRITY DREAM

Race 6 SHOWY CHLOE E/W

Race 9 YOUNG LIONEL

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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