We return to Ascot to offer Racing Tips for Saturday, December 17th as we continue our build up to the Perth Cup on New Year's Eve. This week features the Group 2 Ted Van Heemst Stakes (formerly the CB Cox Stakes) which is the race Delicacy won on her way to winning the Perth Cup last year.
We have betting tips for all 8 races on the card.
Race 1
POINT was well-backed first up but found one better on Kingston Town Classic Day in a race that was run faster than any of Jaspara's races lately. He should be improved by that and the step up to 1600m also helps. He's undefeated 2nd up from a spell and with Pike retaining the ride he looks hard to beat.
Tip: Point
Race 2
Dainty Tess looks one of the best bets of the day here. First up she was beaten 0.5L by Slik Sam but gets a 4kg weight turnaround today, and last start she once again went very close. She draws the plum barrier 1 today and gets a 3kg claim to bring her down to 55.5kg which should see her winning this. I think the $3 fixed is very good and won't last long at all.
Tip: Dainty Tess (best bet)
Race 3
MOSSERATTI has the best form coming in to the race but the fact he draws barrier 11 here means he will have tocome from a long way back, and if the race is run at a crawl then it will be hard for him to win. Pike sticks with O'REILLY'S CRUMPET which is a hint and from barrier 2 he should be able to get a good run in midfield. Stepped up to 2100m for the first time last start and with that run under his belt he can go one better today. ALREADY FAMOUS is ridiculously over the odds at 30/1 after not seeing any daylight last start. Gets a 3kg weight swing on Mosseratti, had good form prior and has never missed a place from 9 starts over track and distance.
Tip: O'Reilly's Crumpet / Already Famous EW
Race 4
Deep race with a number of chances but there's nothing wrong with the form of DELICATE MISS and the 2kg weight rise might not be enough to stop her if she gets away with things out the front. She's won 3 of her last 4 and at the price should give a good sight. Furious Dame, Volkoff, Roger The Roman and Viking Forrest are all chances.
Tip: Delicate Miss EW
Race 5
Looks a race for Bob Peters and the cerise and white colours but who knows which one will turn up this week. Pike sticks with COSMIC STORM after a torrid trip last start and they won't be making the same mistake today. From barrier 10 they'll take her straight back and try to run over the top of them. She's undefeated at the distance and undefeated 3rd up so if she can bounce back from the tough run last start she will be there at the finish. SILVERSTREAM has had a horrible prep but popped up out of nowhere last start to show just what she is capable of on her day. Tough to tell whether she can put two good runs together but if she brings her best form like she did last start then she may just roll all the stablemates.
Tip: Cosmic Storm
Race 6
TOMMY WHO is another very strong bet on the card and the $3 fixed won't be there for long. He returned with a good performance behind Roger The Roman first up, despite covering ground from the wide barrier. From barrier 2 he will have no such problem today and should be winning this. The dangers are obviously RED PADDY who was absolutely luckless first up and always runs well 2nd up, and SHADY GRAY who resumes for a new stable after mixing it with the likes of Scales Of Justice last prep.
Tip: Tommy Who
Race 7
There's really only two I'm interested in here and that's the favourite PERFECT REFLECTION and I'M FEELING LUCKY at $15. Perfect Reflection continued her good form in the Kingston Town Classic last start, running 3rd behind Stratum Star and Scales Of Justice. She steps up to 2100m for the first time but her breeding suggests she should handle the ground and the way she is racing gives no indication that it won't suit her. There is no doubt she is the best horse in the race, she brings the best form to the race and carries less weight than any other horse. Despite the wide barrier, she will be hard to beat here.
I'M FEELING LUCKY really interests me at the big odds. This horse completely went to a new level when he joined this stable and he returned with a big run behind Silverstream over 1400m first up. He normally doesn't fire first up but him running 2nd suggests he is a different horse and he can give this a real crack with a soft run in midfield. The step up from 1400m to 2100m is a slight concern, but he has won over this distance previously and it wouldn't surprise me to see him win here at double figure odds.
NEVERLAND ran 2nd in the Perth Cup last year and that looks to be the goal again this year. He finished 5th in the Kingston Town last start and the rise in trip will suit him, while DARK MUSKET drops back in distance after running 3rd to Kia Ora Koutou last weekend. TRADESMAN continues to run well but gets a horror draw here.
Tip: Perfect Reflection / I'm Feeling Lucky EW (best value)
Race 8
Other than the feature this is the best race on the card. Any number of winning chances here with most of the field racing in good form.
Sticking with POUNAMU here who recorded a good win two starts back before Damien Oliver absolutely murdered him last start. Put a line through that run and look at his form prior which saw him run 2nd to the likes of Scales Of Justice and Chocolate Holic. From barrier 2 he should get a great run and he should be in the finish. CRONKITE is a big danger after winning 4 of his last 5 races, while SETTLERS CREEK can go close at double figure odds.
Tip: Pounamu
_ _ _
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
