We’re back to a full slate of games for Round 5 of the season and that means a big Saturday slate with four matches coming our way from Gather Round!
First up, the Roos will be hoping to keep up the momentum they’ve built at the start of the season as they get a true test against the Lions at Barossa Park. Over at the Adelaide Oval, it will be the Bombers looking for their first win of the season against the Dees.
The twilight game will come from Norwood Oval where the Swans and Suns will do battle in a heavyweight clash, while the prime time slot is given to the Hawks and Bulldogs back at the Adelaide Oval.
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 5 Saturday
AFL Fantasy Round 5 Saturday: Where to Attack?
The Saturday slate appears to be a tale of two halves.
We have two games in the early afternoon that appear a little one-sided, featuring a couple of teams for the lower end of the ladder. There’s definitely trends there to exploit for fantasy coaches. Meanwhile the two late games feature four genuine premiership contenders which may prove tougher to get involved.
The Lions are warm favourites against the Roos, who have one major hole at the moment and that is in the ruck with Tristan Xerri still on the sidelines. His replacement, Callum Coleman-Jones, could only manage 6 hitouts last week. The Roos have tightened up in other areas of the ground across the last 10 games, and in fact, are easily the most restrictive team in the league to opposition designated kickers.
The Lions are also tough to score against from a fantasy perspective as they are below league average in points conceded across all positions on the ground. In particular they have really improved in the ruck with Darcy Fort taking the lead, and second only to Max Gawn for points conceded to opposition rucks in recent times.
Exploiting the Bombers against the Dees is the best play on this slate. The Bombers are in the league’s top three worst for points conceded to the opposition across all forwards, inside midfielders and general defenders. You can basically target any position which will make Melbourne stacks the most popular play of the day.
It’s tougher to find spots in the other two games. The Suns have been giving up points to opposition midfielders, but the return of Matt Rowell should start to help that situation against the Swans. It’s also worth noting the tight confines of Norwood Oval generally makes it tough for wingers to get involved, while intercepting defenders might get a small bump.
Meanwhile the Bulldogs are the league worst for conceding points to general defenders of the last 10 matches. Outside of that, the four contending teams on this slate are difficult to exploit for fantasy so you’ll have to look for value prices.
Game script: Melbourne stacks, Lions ruck, Swans mids, Hawks defenders
AFL Fantasy Round 5 Saturday: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Sullivan Robey ($6,000) might be worth taking a chance on for the Bombers. He was the #9 draft pick and is touted as a ready-made mid-forward. He had 24 disposals and 4 goals in a game a fortnight ago in the VFL, so they are impressive numbers for someone starting out their career.
Elijah Tsatas ($6,710) has under-delivered in his three years in the AFL system after being a highly-fancied #5 draft pick in 2022. He’s struggled to get any momentum in the senior side with the sub vest not helping things for him in previous seasons. Finally, he gets his chance at a full game and you’d hope he’s given a role in the midfield ahead of some of the plodders who have been stinking it up for Essendon so far this season. Tsatas has been racking up fantasy tons in the VFL since his debut, including a 120 and 116 in the past fortnight, so he’s every chance to hit value at a near-minimum price.
Rory Lobb ($7,930) is going to be asked to shoulder more of the ruck load this weekend, you would think, with the injury to Tim English. Louis Emmett ($7,050) has been brought into the team, but I think he’s going to be more of the backup option, and I can’t see the Dogs wanting Sam Darcy ($11,710) taking too much of the physical workload. So I think the heavy lifting might be left to Lobb who has more ruck experience than the other two. Getting Lobb around the ground could help his fantasy output with more hitouts, and potentially some tackles and marks.
AFL Fantasy Round 5 Saturday: Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
With some of the roles of the premium mids looking a little uncertain with returns from injury for the likes of Hugh McLuggage, Ed Richards and Matt Rowell, I don’t mind playing in the mid-priced range on this slate where there appears to be plenty of viable options.
Jy Simpkin ($10,980) might get a bump this week with Finn O’Sullivan out of the midfield. Simpkin was struggling on the wing, and moved more into a half-forward role last week, but with O’Sullivan out, Simpkin seems the logical option to get back into the midfield rotation. It’s where he wants to be and where he’s spent the majority of his career. Not an easy matchup against the Lions, but it’s a gamble on a role change that might pay off at an affordable price. Tom Powell ($12,260) is the other contender to possibly get more midfield time, but he seems more established across half-forward.
Levi Ashcroft ($11,140) has been flying under the radar for Brisbane with a solid start to the season averaging 80.8 with back-to-back 90+ scores. Has been linking up well on the wing to pick up plenty of uncontested marks, and it also helps that his brother Will has been winning plenty of ball as he always seems to look in Levi’s direction! Gets a great match up against the Roos and can be a strong core to your teams today.
Tom Sparrow ($11,840) has been given more time in the midfield in recent weeks and has repaid the faith with scores of 80, 114 and 102 over the past three weeks. The base of that has been his tackling which has always been a strength with a massive 26 tackles during that period. That gives us a great base for a solid fantasy score. He draws the match up with the Bombers who leak points everywhere so it’s a great opportunity for another ton-plus score.
AFL Fantasy Round 5 Saturday: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Max Gawn ($17,960) is the most expensive player on the slate but he might pay off if you can fit him into your salary cap. I’ve been really unimpressed with most of the ruck options this season, with new rules and split roles making it very hard to trust any of them. However Max continues to defy the trend and stands tall as a solo ruck against any opposition and any rule changes thrown at him. His form is impeccable with a 124.5 average this season and scores of 127, 141 and 121 the last three weeks. That’s been against teams with decent ruckmen too. Today, he’s up against Essendon who haven’t had an established ruckman all season and will be hoping Lachie Blakiston and Peter Wright don’t get destroyed. Prediction - they WILL get destroyed and Max will land a monster score!
Here's our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Saturday
Weather Report for Saturday 11th April
Adelaide - Light rain, 15 degrees
AFL Betting Markets Saturday
Odds provided with thanks to NextBet!
North Melbourne ($5.10) vs Brisbane ($1.17)
Line: Brisbane -34.5
Points: 190.5
Essendon ($4.10) vs Melbourne ($1.24)
Line: Melbourne -26.5
Points: 186.5
Sydney ($1.78) vs Gold Coast ($2.08)
Line: Sydney -3.5
Points: 192.5
Hawthorn ($1.65) vs Western Bulldogs ($2.25)
Line: Hawthorn -7.5
Points: 183.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Previews and Betting Tips for each match. Our experts break down each individual game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
