Round 16 of the 2026 AFL season continues this Friday night at the MCG with the Hawks hosting the Giants in a game where the Hawks are heavy favourites despite a disrupted week. Draftstars are offering over $50,000 in guaranteed prize money in their main daily fantasy tournament.
Hawthorn have been one of the competition’s most consistent teams across 2026 and returned from the bye with a dominant second-half performance against Gold Coast last week, with Jai Newcombe posting 30 disposals and 10 clearances and Nick Watson and Dylan Moore combining for seven goals. They arrive as 18.5-point favourites despite a string of selection disruptions. GWS arrive having narrowly lost to Carlton in Round 15, a game they had enough chances to win, and continue to be one of the competition’s most inconsistent teams — capable of elite football one week and looking disorganised the next. The confirmed selection changes reshape both teams significantly. For Hawthorn: Flynn Perez, Calsher Dear and Jack Dalton come in for Jarman Impey (hamstring), Josh Weddle (three-match ban) and Cameron Nairn. Impey and Weddle’s absences from the back half are significant for fantasy purposes. For GWS: Max Gruzewski and Harrison Oliver come in for Jayden Laverde (hamstring) and Jesse Hogan, thinning their already-stretched forward line.
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 16 Hawks vs Giants
AFL Fantasy Round 16 Friday: Where to Attack?
The matchup data is clear and the confirmed team changes amplify the primary angles considerably.
The most important angle on this slate runs through the Hawthorn back half and the CBA reshuffle caused by the twin absences of Impey and Weddle. Both were key operators and regular attendees in the back-half defensive structure — their removal opens scoring opportunity for the players who fill those roles. GWS have been giving up +3.27 above average to designated kickers meaning stacking up the Hawks backs and probably finding some value at the same time is in play. Moving to the midfield, the Giants also giving up above average to inside midfielders. And we can finish our full Hawks team stacks up forward with the Giants giving up above average points to key forwards, a positive angle with the Hawks listed as just over 3 goal favourites at home.
On the flip side the Hawks are one of the toughest teams in the league to score against and hold teams to some of the lowest fantasy averages to positions such as key forward, inside midfielder and ruck. Pick your Giants sparingly.
Game Script – Hawks midfielders, key forwards and designated kickers (full stack)
AFL Fantasy Round 16 Friday – Our Value Fantasy Picks
Mitch Lewis ($8,200) arrives at a low salary in AFL fantasy terms after a disrupted run of form, and while the price reflects genuine inconsistency — his last five scores of 30, 37, 66, 31 and 65 average just 44.3 — the matchup provides a viable ceiling play in a blowout game script. His season-high of 126 confirms what he can produce when the ball goes his way. GWS have been giving up above average points to key forwards and in a game where Hawthorn are expected to control territory, Lewis’ marking contests in the forward 50 will be plentiful, especially without Gunston in the lineup making Lewis the top target.
Lloyd Meek ($9,050) is the ruck play for this lineup and the opponent history against GWS is the primary case posting 70, 121 and 97 in his last three meetings with the Giants, averaging 96 in this exact matchup. That 121 is his career-best score and was delivered against this exact opponent. GWS have been giving up huge scores to opposition rucks at over 12 points per game above the league average, and I love his low price point in this matchup even with sharing duties with Reeves.
Bailey Macdonald ($6,000) is the minimum-price salary relief play that makes the rest of the lineup work financially. This is primarily based on the further opportunity that may be extended to Macdonald playing across the backline with the Hawks outs. In single game slates he will only need 50+ to pay off.
AFL Fantasy Round 16 Friday – Our Mid Price Fantasy Picks
Will Day ($13,500) is the mid-price lock of the slate and the structural case is the strongest of any player on the board. He has posted 93, 115, 64, 89 and 68 in his last five for a last-three average of 90.7, with that 115 his most recent ceiling score. GWS are conceding above average points to inside midfielders and Day is the direct beneficiary as he returns to his full fledged role and fitness.
AFL Fantasy Round 16 Friday – Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Jai Newcombe ($14,150) is the premium lock of the slate after the most complete performance of his season in Round 15 against Gold Coast — 30 disposals, 10 clearances, two goals in a dominant display. He has posted 103, 114, 85, 66 and 59 in his last five for a last-three average of 100.7 with a season average of 89.9. His opponent scores against GWS of 83, 99 and 77 confirm a consistent floor in this exact matchup. GWS have been giving up above average points to inside midfielders, and Newcombe as Hawthorn’s primary contested ball winner and clearance generator steps directly into that concession. His MCG venue scores of 77, 114, 59, 110 and 76 show that 114 as a recent ceiling reference at this ground.
Finn Callaghan ($14,940) is the one player from the Giants I am looking at. He is in elite form this season and has posted 102, 82, 123, 119 and 75 in his last five for a last-three average of 102.3, with that 123 and 119 in back-to-back weeks confirming his elite ceiling potential. His opponent scores against Hawthorn read 86, 134 and 57 — that 134 is one of the highest scores posted by any midfielder in this matchup all season.
Karl Amon ($14,040) is the standout play in this lineup and the form data makes the case without equivocation. He has posted 105, 94, 86, 67 and 105 in his last five for a last-three average of 95.0 — a run that includes two scores of 105 bookending the stretch and confirms his elite ceiling when operating as Hawthorn’s primary kick-in taker. With Impey and Weddle both out, Amon’s designated kicker role is now even more central to Hawthorn’s back-half structure and GWS are conceding above average to the designated kicker position.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Fantasy Round 16 Friday
Weather Report for Friday 26th June
MCG (Melbourne) — 9 degrees, clear. Cold winter evening, no weather concerns.
AFL Betting Markets Round 16 Friday
Hawthorn ($1.35) vs GWS Giants ($3.25)
Points: 170.5
Line: Hawthorn -18.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Friday Preview and Betting Tips. Our experts break down the game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
