Three games to enjoy this Saturday for AFL Round 14 featuring a couple of interesting contests. Melbourne are on a roll and they will be looking to solidify their position in the top 6 with a big win over Essendon in a game that could be juicy for fantasy scoring. The Kangaroos road trip continues out west where they will need to bounce back from a humiliating loss last week as they take on the Eagles. Finally, the evening game will see the Power hoping for an upset against the Swans.
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 14 Saturday
AFL Fantasy Round 14 Saturday: Where to Attack?
Melbourne and Essendon could be a great fantasy matchup with both teams having areas where they leak massive points to the opposition. The Bombers are one of the worst teams in the comp, so it’s no surprise to see they concede above average points in most positions. In particular, you can target the opposition inside midfielders, wings and outside defenders where they are the number one team in the league for conceding fantasy points. The Dees also have areas where they give up points with opposition general forwards and general defenders enjoying a fill up, while the opposition designated kickers can also feast.
North Melbourne have improved this season and don’t give up fantasy points like they have in previous seasons. There’s no holes to attack there, but the Eagles are still vulnerable. The Eagles concede points all over the ground, but particularly you can target the opposition rucks and general defenders.
The Power and Swans don’t offer any obvious areas to attack. The Power are easily the toughest to score against for wings and outside defenders, so no cheap stat padding there for the Swans. The Swans are among the league's best in most positions, but they lead the league for restricting key forwards and inside midfielders. Tread carefully in this one.
Game script: Demons mids/wings/outside defenders, Bombers forwards/defenders, Kangaroos rucks/defenders
AFL Fantasy Round 14 Saturday: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Joel Fitzgerald ($6,000) has got fantasy purists licking their lips as he’s set to debut for the Demons this weekend. Fitzgerald has been a fantasy pig in the VFL with an average of over 132 for Williamstown before the Dees picked him up at pick #16 in the mid-season draft. Fitzgerald gets to run around against the lowly Bombers for his debut so looks to be an excellent lock-and-load value play to allow us to stack up some premiums. You could also look at Lukas Cooke ($6,000) who is also on debut for the Demons. He’s an intercepting defender and while he’s not the fantasy gun that Fitzgerald is, he’s also a good chance of hitting value at minimum price if he can link up in the back half.
Marcus Herbert ($6,000) comes into the Eagles side for his debut after being drafted with pick #13 in the mid-season draft. He looks a good type with excellent VFL form for Geelong, including fantasy scores of 118,107, 101 and 109 in the month before he was drafted. With Tom McCarthy out with injury, there’s a role there for Herbert to step into in the Eagles backline, and at minimum price, he should be a good chance to hit value.
AFL Fantasy Round 14 Saturday: Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
Jake Waterman ($12,200) has been in excellent form the last couple of weeks and comes up against a North Melbourne side who typically struggle to contain good key forwards. Waterman has scores of 119 and 96 in the last fortnight, and if he could kick straight, those scores would’ve been even better. Waterman isn’t afraid to push up the ground to link up, so he’s getting plenty of marks, and he’s the Eagles main target in the forward line. A great tournament play.
Jack Steele ($13,800) looks a good price for a bounce back game here. He smashed out four tons in his first five games this season, and we thought the old Jack Steele was back in new colours. Since then, he’s been solid without being spectacular with scores in the 80s and 90s but no tons since that time. That means we’re now getting Steele at a sub $14k price which looks attractive for a one-time premium fantasy player coming up against the worst midfield in the competition. Steele is a great chance to hit back with a big score here. You could pivot to Tom Sparrow ($14,010) at around the same price point. Sparrow has enjoyed a return to the midfield this season, with five tons this year, and could also feast against the baby Bombers.
AFL Fantasy Round 14 Saturday: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Kysaiah Pickett ($14,760) was awesome last week on the Kings Birthday with 28 disposals and 3 goals, and he has the ability to go large with fantasy scores of 110, 106, 131, 124 and 134 this season. He was huge with a 124 against the Bombers earlier this season so it’s a good matchup for him as they really don’t have anyone capable of stopping him.
Isaac Heeney ($16,530) is the premium I want on my side this week as his ceiling is as large as anyone. Heeney’s ability to rack up huge possessions while also hitting the scoreboard is a rare combination. His 32 disposals and 5 goals two weeks ago netted a score of 163 against the Tigers and there’s no reason why he can’t go big again against a weak Power midfield.
Max Gawn ($16,740) is in play this week. I’m not a fan of many of the ruck options on this slate, but with the quality minimum-priced picks available, it allows us to go with a bit of a “stars and scrubs” approach and fit Gawn into our lineup. Max Heath has been left out of the side again, so Gawn will get full ruck responsibility and should dominate against the Bombers’ undersized options. Expect another big ton here.
AFL Fantasy Round 14 Saturday: Our Fades
A couple of fades worth mentioning on this slate.
Archie Roberts ($15,310) has had some incredible fantasy games this season with some huge scoring, but last week Zach Merrett was thrown behind the ball to completely sap all of the cheap disposals and kick-ins that Roberts was previously enjoying. With Merrett spoiling the party, Roberts has to be a fade until that price comes down or the role changes.
Tristan Xerri ($16,230) has looked sore in recent weeks and the announcement of the debut of young ruckman Taylor Goad ($6,000) this week indicates that Xerri might not be 100%. He’ll now go into a job share role, so while the matchup against West Coast looks juicy, and he did score a 152 against them earlier this year, I think the Roos will want to have a good look at Goad which can’t be good for Xerri’s scoring.
Here's our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Saturday
Weather Report for Saturday 13th June
Melbourne -Light rain, 17 degrees
Perth - Partly sunny, 17 degrees
Adelaide - Rain, 14 degrees
AFL Betting Markets Saturday
Odds provided with thanks to NextBet!
Melbourne ($1.18) vs Essendon ($4.90)
Line: Melbourne -28.5
Points: 158.5
North Melbourne ($1.50) vs West Coast ($2.62)
Line: North Melbourne -11.5
Points: 174.5
Port Adelaide ($2.86) vs Sydney ($1.43)
Line: Sydney -14.5
Points: 160.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Previews and Betting Tips for each match. Our experts break down each individual game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
