The NRL Grand Final is here and just like every game this season, our NRL betting preview will aim to help you every step of the way. The showpiece event kicks off Sunday night at 7:30pm and it's a fixture that will ignite western Sydney all week, with the Panthers up against the Eels. There will be no better way for punters to finish the season than with a winner so let’s look at the match with our NRL Grand Final betting tips.
Penrith Panthers vs Parramatta Eels Preview & Betting Tips
Accor Stadium, Sunday 2nd October, 7:30pm (AEDST)
The Panthers overcame a slow start last week to the Rabbitohs to click into gear and win their way through to the Grand Final. The 12-nil deficit, remaining until the 36th minute, can be attributed to some squad members sparingly playing in the past month; however, once they found their momentum, they were clearly the superior team. Two tries prior to HT tied up the scores at the break and it was one-way traffic in the second half, winning 32-12. This was reflected statistically also; they had a better completion rate (84% vs 73%), averaged 11m per carry while limiting the Rabbitohs to just 8.8m and missed fewer tackles (28 vs 41). Such a performance is common practice for the Panthers, and it is a large reason why the minor Premiers have reached their 3rd consecutive Grand Final.
The Eels have an extra day to recover and prepare for this game and it will be needed after they travelled to Townsville and upset the Cowboys 24-20 in draining conditions. Heading into the game as outsiders, the Eels turned out a spirited display which was establish on the back of sturdy defence. This was the difference at the end of the game, with the visitors being outplayed in most areas. They had an inferior completion rate (75% vs 84%), made more errors (11 vs 6), missed more tackles (40 vs 31) and made fewer total metres. Their offloads (15) and line breaks (6) disrupted the Cowboys though and when in an attacking position, they were able to deliver. Even with fatigue appearing to get the better of them towards the end of the match, they were able to finish close out the game. It now sets up an exciting fixture between two clubs which despise one another both on and off the field.
Squads
Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Charlie Staines 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo Interchange: 14. Mitch Kenny 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon Reserves: 18. Sean O’Sullivan 19. Matthew Eisenhuth 20. J’maine Hopgood 21. Sunia Turuva 22. Chris Smith
Parramatta Eels
1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Waqa Blake 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Ryan Matterson Interchange: 14. Nathan Brown 15. Jake Arthur 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Marata Niukore Reserves: 18. Bryce Cartwright 19. Makahesi Makatoa 20. Tom Opacic 21. Ofahiki Ogden 22. Ky Rodwell
Stats Which Matter
- The Eels and Panthers have similar attacking records this season; the Panthers average 26 points per game compared with the Eels 25ppg. Defence is the major difference though, with the Panthers conceding an average of 13ppg compared with the Eels 20ppg.
- These two sides have met three times in 2022. The Eels won Round 9 22-20 and Round 20 34-10. These two victories have been their only two in the past 10 meetings between these sides. In Week 1 of the Finals, the Panthers defeated the Eels 27-8, to go with their 8-6 victory over the Eels in the 2021 Finals series.
- There is no clear pattern for the Eels’ victories other than their high offload count. This appears to be an area they will look to target the Panthers with second phase play. They lead the competition and are well ahead of the Panthers in this area (Eels 13.8 vs Panthers 8.7).
- Since 2011, teams have met in the Grand Final 3 times after facing one another in Week 1 of the Finals. Only once has the victorious team won again in the decider. On 2 occasions, the higher ranked team on the competition ladder has won.
- Scoring first is a great chance to set up victory too with only 2 teams since 2011 losing after scoring first. Consider a live head-to-head bet on the team which scores first too (1-2 units).
- At Accor Stadium, the Panthers have a 49% winning record compared to the Eels 47%.
- Since 2011, 7/11 games have been decided by 1-12 points with the average margin during this time being 10.5 points. The two largest victories (24 – 2014 & 28 – 2017) came when teams outside of the Top 4 were defeated. The average margin of victory (in the Grand Final) between two sides who met in Week 1 of the Finals is 3.7 points.
Match Prediction
The Panthers are strong favourites for this game ($1.38 vs $3.10), but the match should be far closer than the odds are suggesting. For starters, the Eels have twice defeated the Panthers this season and know the formula to achieve this. The fact that they were unsuccessful in Week 1 of the Finals can be put down to the last quarter of the match; they were without a few key players and missed the direction and stability that Moses offers his side. They will learn from that result. It will be a tough task ahead of the Eels though. It is no secret that the Panthers have attacking weapons across the park; their outside backs return the ball strongly at the beginning of a set, allowing the forwards to cover less metres, then the big men create a powerful platform with their runs and fast ‘play-the-ball’s’ and Cleary finishes their set off with a clever attacking kick. The Eels will need to create pressure on Cleary and slow down the ruck to allow them the opportunity to disrupt the momentum of their opponents. They can win but it will take a complete, 80-minute effort if they are to achieve this. Their completion rate from last week needs improvement; the Panthers will not allow the same mistakes to go unpunished.
In terms of picking a H2H winner, the Panthers are the favourites for a reason. The third trip to the Grand Final brings further experience for this team. This is the same level of poise and execution they had last week when they were down by 12 late into the first half. 13 players are backing up from last year’s decider and they are all aware of what job needs to be done. As mentioned earlier though, history indicates that this should be a close game. Attack wins games but defence wins Premierships. This has been a cornerstone of the Panthers performance over the past 3 years and there is no reason why it would break down here. The Eels will be ready for this defensive battle too and it brings the line nicely into play.
Parramatta Eels +8.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
Prop Bets
First Try Scorer
In Grand Finals since 2011, wingers have scored 5 times, with centres and fullbacks crossing twice each, with a hooker and second rower also scoring on individual occasions. Centres have scored in the past two years, while jersey number 2 has delivered 4 first try scorers. No more than 1-1.5 units per selection.
Panthers: The leading try scorers for the Panthers this season are all outside backs. You have May (16) and Crichton (12) on the right edge and Tago (13) and To’o (11) on the left. May’s place in the team is taken by Staines (2). The best selection should come from one of these players; there is a fragility to the Eels right edge defence both on the ground and in the air, placing To’o as the best option. For value, Kikau (9) is always a danger on his same edge and teams always have difficulty stopping him.
Best: To’o First Try Scorer ($8 at Ladbrokes)
Value: Kikau First Try Scorer ($15 at Ladbrokes)
Eels: Player availability has impacted the overall statistics in this area for the Eels, with Gutherson (14), Sivo (13) and Blake (12) being the top 3 players. Sivo’s power close to the line is something that the Eels will want to utilise and after missing a large part of the season, he is back to his powerful best. For value, two players standout in Dylan Brown (11 – 4th) and Papali’i (10 – equal 5th) are the preferred selection. Brown is likely to get his hands on the ball in a better attacking position but if you prefer the Papali’i, they are both $26 and should not be overlooked.
Best: Sivo First Try Scorer ($11 at Ladbrokes)
Value: Brown First Try Scorer ($26 at Ladbrokes)
Clive Churchill Medal Winner
It is no surprise that the winner of the ‘Man of the Match’ usually comes from a player in the spine. Since 2011, halfbacks have saluted 4 times, with fullbacks and 5/8’s winning twice each. Interestingly, when not won by a player in the spine, lock (13) is the only other position to win, with the other 3 since 2011 awarded to these players. Considering the subjective nature of this award, it might be worth avoiding. If you do want to invest, no more than 0.5-1 units should be used.
Panthers: Some bookies have already paid out on Cleary. He is undoubtedly the preferred selection but considering how much the Eels will target him, it may allow another player to take control of the match. As such, let’s overlook the obvious selection and recommend two value options. Yeo is a critical link between the forwards and backs, while also getting through a large amount of work in defence. Koroisau will likely come off or sit on the bench for a period of this match, hence the better odds on offer for him. Either way, both are vital to the success of the Panthers.
Best: Isaah Yeo Medal Winner ($9 at Ladbrokes)
Value: Apisai Koroisau Medal Winner ($13 at Ladbrokes)
Eels: Like the Panthers, Moses is the likely winner at halfback. He is key to their chances in this game with a great kicking game; they are also a better team when he takes the ball to the line. For value, his halves partner Dylan Brown, is over the odds. His form this season has been the best of his career and if the Eels win, his fingerprints will be all over the performance in attack and defence.
Best: Mitchell Moses Medal Winner ($10 at Ladbrokes)
Value: Dylan Brown Medal Winner ($17 at Ladbrokes)
Total Points
Fans think that Grand Finals are tough, arduous matches and the average points margin (32) since 2011 supports this. The total points of the 3 fixtures between the Panthers and Eels in 2021 is 40.3, with each match being more than the average Grand Final total. The most recent meeting (a Finals match) saw the least points scored (35). Conditions are likely to be wet/damp too, which could also limit the scoring of each side. The best guide of what is to come is their 2021 Finals match.
Under 39.5 points ($1.90 at Ladbrokes) – 2.5 Units
Same Game Multi
Panthers: Panthers/ Panthers 1-12/To’o to score/Under 39.5 total points ($8.50 at Ladbrokes) – 2 units
Eels: Eels/Eels +8.5/Eels 1-12/Sivo to score/Under 39.5 total points ($10 at Ladbrokes) – 1 unit
Good luck!
Scooby
