Round 6 of the AFL season is in the books and dreams of success in 2022 are quickly slipping away for a few teams. The Power landed their first win of the season, but Essendon, GWS, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs are in a world of hurt if they still have aspirations of finals this year.
Once again we bring you our analysis and Round 6 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 6 Overview
Patrick Cripps returned to the side following his hamstring injury and picked up where he left off. The Blues didn't get the win, but you'd think Cripps will again poll maximum votes to shoot him clear at the top of our Brownlow leaderboard with 12 votes from 6 games.
The favourite in the Brownlow betting market is Melbourne's Christrian Petracca but he doesn't seem to be moving as well as last season, while teammates Max Gawn and Clayton Oliver are proving difficult to get votes from. We have both Petracca and Oliver at 9 votes at this stage, but Oliver is being offered at almost double the price with $10 available at some sportsbooks.
The other player of note is Sydney's Callum Mills who is starting to put together a nice run of form, including a montrous performance in Round 6 that will be sure to earn the three votes. We now have Mills on 8.5 votes and sitting just outside the Top 5 in the counts. With $22 available for Mills, he looks a great smokey bet at this point of the season.
AFL Round 6 Brownlow Votes
GWS Giants 8.12.60 def by St.Kilda 10.17.77
The Saints continue to march in 2022 as questions have to be asked over the coaching of the Gaints as the season is quickly slipping away once again. Jack Higgins was the star up forward with 4 goals from 18 disposals and 9 marks, and he could’ve probably kicked a couple more if he’d kicked straight. Jack Steele (29 disposals, 8 tackles) was a rock in the middle, alongside Brad Crouch (23 disposals, 2 goals). Callan Ward (21 disposals, 9 tackles, 2 goals) and Braydon Preuss (13 disposals, 47 hitouts, 1 goal) were best for the Giants.
Jack Higgins - 3
Jack Steele - 2
Braydon Preuss - 1
Western Bulldogs 9.8.62 def by Adelaide 8.15.63
A big win for the Crows as they snuck home against the Bulldogs by a solitary point. Billy Frampton repeatedly repelled the Bulldogs attacks with 26 disposals and 9 marks across half-back to be one of the Crows best. Rory Laird (30 disposals, 11 tackles, 8 clearances) and Ben Keays (33 disposals, 8 clearances) were busy in the middle, while Riley O’Brien (17 disposals, 48 hitouts, 6 clearances) dominated the ruck contests. Tom Liberatore (33 disposals, 10 tackles, 9 clearances) and Josh Dunkley (28 disposals, 10 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) were excellent for the Dogs.
Billy Frampton - 3
Tom Liberatore - 2
Riley O’Brien - 1
Port Adelaide 18.9.117 def West Coast 4.9.33
The Power finally got their first win of the season as they thumped the Eagles. Connor Rozee is enjoying some time up the ground as he racked up 31 disposals, 5 tackles and 8 clearances in a best-on-ground performance. Travis Boak (34 disposals, 6 tackles, 9 clearances) and Ollie Wines (33 disposals, 6 marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) won plenty of ball, while Todd Marshall (5 goals, 14 disposals, 11 marks, 7 tackles) and Jeremy Finlayson (5 goals, 19 disposals) smashed the scoreboard. Alex Witherden (34 disposals, 7 marks) was best for the Eagles.
Connor Rozee - 3
Ollie Wines - 1
Todd Marshall - 1
Jeremy Finlayson - 1
Fremantle 14.13.97 def Carlton 9.8.62
Fremantle are right in the hunt in 2022 after accounting for the Blues. Andrew Brayshaw (27 disposals, 8 tackles, 7 clearances), Will Brodie (27 disposals, 5 clearances and 1 goal) and Lachie Schultz (16 disposals, 11 marks, 5 tackles, 3 goals) were best for the Dockers. However the best afield was Patrick Cripps who amassed 32 disposals, including 19 contested, 5 tackles, 8 clearances and 3 goals. Sam Walsh (36 disposals) and Adam Cerra (32 disposals, 5 tackles, 7 clearances) also won plenty of the ball for the Blues.
Patrick Cripps - 3
Andrew Brayshaw - 2
Lachie Schultz - 1
North Melbourne 9.7.61 def by Geelong 17.19.121
The Cats thumped the Kangaroos to send them back to the bottom of the AFL ladder. Jeremy Cameron won the medal for best afield for his 7 goals from 16 disposals and 9 marks, while Tom Hawkins chipped in with 4 goals from 17 disposals. Zach Tuohy (32 disposals, 9 marks), Cam Guthrie (28 disposals, 5 tackles, 1 goal) and Joel Selwood (24 disposals, 8 tackles, 9 clearances, 1 goal) all had plenty of ball in a big day for the Cats.
Jeremy Cameron - 3
Zach Tuohy - 2
Joel Selwood - 1
Gold Coast 11.14.80 def by Brisbane 21.6.132
Zac Bailey won the Marcus Ashcroft Medal for his 6-goal haul from 17 disposals in a big win over the Suns. Jarryd Lyons (30 disposals, 10 tackles, 13 clearances, 1 goal) and Lincoln McCarthy (22 disposals, 6 marks, 7 tackles, 1 goal) were also influential. Noah Anderson (33 disposals, 6 marks) and Touk Miller (26 disposals, 8 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) were best for the Suns.
Zac Bailey - 3
Jarryd Lyons - 2
Lincoln McCarthy - 1
Richmond 8.6.54 def by Melbourne 9.22.76
Melbourne got the job done, but probably could’ve won by more if they’d kicked straight. Clayton Oliver won the medal for best afield for his 41 disposals, including 22 contested, and 13 clearances. Ed Langdon (30 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) ran wild on the wing to also be among the Dees’ best. Nick Vlastuin (30 disposals, 12 marks) and Jordan Short (30 disposals, 9 marks) were kept busy for the Tigers.
Clayton Oliver - 3
Ed Langdon - 2
Nick Vlastuin - 1
Hawthorn 10.8.68 def by Sydney 16.13.109
The Hawks burst out of the blocks with the first five goals of the game, but the Swans ground them down before kicking the final nine goals to claim victory. Callum Mills was sensational with 37 disposals, 11 marks, 6 clearances and a goal. Luke Parker (29 disposals, 7 clearances), Chad Warner (24 disposals, 2 goals) and Peter Ladhams (19 disposals, 7 marks, 34 hitouts, 6 clearances) were also influential. Jai Newcombe (23 disposals, 6 tackles) and Tom Mitchell (26 disposals, 6 tackles) were best for the Hawks.
Callum Mills - 3
Luke Parker - 2
Peter Ladhams - 0.5
Chad Warner - 0.5
Essendon 12.10.82 def by Collingwood 15.3.93
An accurate Collingwood has left the Bombers’ season on the rails in an ANZAC Day classic. Young gun Jack Ginnivan won the medal for his 5 goals and 12 disposals. He was definitely a match winner, but was he the best player on the ground? It’s sparked plenty of discussion, and while I’m reluctant to go against the Medal winner, in my opinion the game of Darcy Parish was another level. With an incredible 30 disposals in the first half alone, Parish ended with 44 disposals and 12 clearances in a brilliant performance. Zach Merrett (36 disposals), Jordan De Goey (27 disposals, 8 marks, 7 clearances) and Scott Pendlebury (25 disposals, 5 clearances) are likely to fight it out for the remaining vote.
Jack Ginnivan - 2.5
Darcy Parish - 2.5
Jordan De Goey - 0.5
Scott Pendlebury - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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