The third and final week of the AFL bye rounds was a relatively quiet one from a Brownlow perspective, but Round 14 saw several interesting results for the season. Richmond proved they are a contender in 2022 after accounting for Carlton, Essendon upset St.Kilda, while Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs are still in the hunt for finals after solid victories to sit just outside the top 8.
Once again we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 14 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 14 Overview
There wasn't a whole lot of important Brownlow action in Round 14 with most of the contenders enjoying a week off for the bye. Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh were in action for Carlton but it will be interesting to see if either of them pull a vote against Richmond. We have them both missing out.
Callum Mills also had a solid game against Port, but it was a losing effort so we don't have him picking up any votes there.
AFL Round 14 Brownlow Votes
Richmond 11.15.81 def Carlton 9.12.66
Richmond had to work hard for the win in slippery conditions at the G, but they got past a dogged Carlton. Liam Baker (27 disposals, 7 marks) and Dion Prestia (33 disposals, 13 clearances) were the clear stand outs for the Tigers as they were typically even across the board. Sam Dochery (31 disposals, 11 marks) was excellent for the Blues, while Sam Walsh (34 disposals) and Patrick Cripps (34 disposals) were both busy but maybe not enough to pinch a vote here.
Dion Prestia - 2.5
Liam Baker - 2.5
Sam Docherty - 1
St.Kilda 11.6.72 def by Essendon 15.17.107
The Saints were disappointing as the Dons ramped up the pressure and speed which helped them to an impressive victory. Mason Redman played one of his best games with 31 disposals and 11 marks, while Jye Caldwell (23 disposals, 7 tackles) was good in the middle, and Jake Stringer (16 disposals, 6 tackles, 2 goals) helped inspire his side when the Saints challenged in the third quarter. Jade Gresham (28 disposals, 3 goals), Jack Sinclair (31 disposals, 7 marks) and Brad Hill (26 disposals, 10 marks) tried hard for the Saints but they didn’t get a lot of support.
Mason Redman - 3
Jade Gresham - 2
Jye Caldwell - 1
Port Adelaide 12.10.82 def Sydney 8.11.59
A great win for Port over the Swans has kept them in the hunt for September action. Brownlow medalist Ollie Wines (34 disposals, 10 clearances) and Connor Rozee (29 disposals, 1 goal) were excellent in the midfield after an early injury to Zak Butters, while Todd Marshall was a force up forward with 4 goals from 14 disposals and 8 marks. Isaac Heeney was best for the Swans with 4 goals from 16 disposals and 8 marks.
Ollie Wines - 3
Todd Marshall - 1
Connor Rozee - 1
Isaac Heeney - 1
West Coast 9.9.63 def by Geelong 12.9.81
The Cats did enough to get the points but the Eagles welcomed back some key personnel which helped them to be far more competitive than in recent weeks. Cam Guthrie (25 disposals, 13 tackles) and Tom Atkins (24 disposals, 5 tackles) were best for the Cats while Tyson Stengle (15 disposals, 3 goals) was lively up forward. Jack Redden (24 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances) was busy for the Eagles while Shannon Hurn (20 disposals, 11 marks) tried to hold strong in defence.
Cam Guthrie - 3
Tyson Stengle - 1
Jack Redden - 1
Tom Atkins - 1
GWS Giants 16.9.105 def by Western Bulldogs 19.11.125
It was a classic old-fashioned shootout with the Dogs smashing the scoreboard to hold off the Giants. There were many outstanding performances but none were better than Toby Greene who kicked 7 goals from 21 disposals and 6 marks. Despite losing the game, he’s going to be hard to beat for the 3 Brownlow votes. Jack Macrae was outstanding with 37 disposals, 9 tackles, 6 clearances and a goal, while Tim English (23 disposals, 6 marks, 34 hitouts, 10 clearances) enjoyed the early injury to Braydon Preuss. Aaron Naughton (5 goals, 10 disposals, 6 marks) and Cody Weightman (5 goals, 11 disposals, 6 marks) both also picked up a bag of goals. Stephen Coniglio (32 disposals, 2 goals) and Tom Green (32 disposals, 8 clearances) were also excellent. Great game!
Toby Greene - 3
Jack Macrae - 2
Tim English - 0.5
Stephen Coniglio - 0.5
Gold Coast 18.8.116 def Adelaide 10.13.73
The game was closer than the scoreboard looked, with Gold Coast kicking clear late to take the points. Ben Ainsworth (20 disposals, 3 goals) and Izak Rankine (17 disposals, 3 goals) were the difference up forward, while Matt Rowell (19 disposals, 11 tackles, 7 clearances) and Noah Anderson (28 disposals, 6 clearances) were effective around the stoppages. Rory Laird (42 disposals, 6 disposals) and Jordan Dawson (32 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal) were best for the Crows.
Ben Ainsworth - 3
Rory Laird - 2
Jordan Dawson - 0.5
Izak Rankine - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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