Round 14 of the NRL season wraps up on Sunday with two big matches. First up, it's the Knights taking on the Sea Eagles with a spot in the top 8 on the line. In the second match, the Tigers would be looking for a big win against the lowly Bulldogs. Our NRL guru Scooby is back with his preview and NRL tips for both Sunday NRL matches.
Newcastle Knights (6th) v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (9th)
The Knights flashed back to form with an impressive 44-4 win over the Tigers at home last week. Given their recent form, many rightly doubted the Knights potential in that fixture. That was soon put to bed as they powered to a 22-4 HT lead. 7 players scored 8 tries in a dazzling display of cohesive attack that set a new standard following a few frustrating weeks. They did all the little things right; they had an 89% completion rate, made over 300m more than the Tigers, had 8 linebreaks and had just 6 total errors. If they can keep this level of execution, there is no limit to what they can achieve. As good as the Knights were, the Sea Eagles were equally poor in their match. A big performance loomed against the Warriors but the expectation was soon silenced as the Warriors jumped to 16-nil lead inside 17 minutes. From that point on, the Sea Eagles were always chasing points and looked the inferior side. Even with a larger share of possession (53%) and an 80% completion rate, they still committed 11 errors and allowed their opponents to have more post contact metres. They also missed a great opportunity to jump back into the Top 8. Now, with more key players missing, they have a tough task of prolonging their season when the Finals begin.
The Stats
The Sea Eagles have the slight edge over the Knights in their overall history; they’ve won 18/33 since 1999 but they’ve only won 29% of matches played at this ground (4/14). As for this season, the Knights average 21 points per game compared with the Sea Eagles 16 ppg. On the other side of the ball, the Knights concede 16 ppg whereas the Sea Eagles allow 20 ppg. Interestingly, prior to their win last week, the Knights averaged just 13 ppg. When it comes to run metres, the Knights average 1859.8m per game (2nd), well ahead of the Sea Eagles 1640m (13th); missing key forwards only increases the difficult ahead of the visitors. The Knights have won 3 out of the past 5 matches between these two sides, the Sea Eagles have won 7 out of the past 10 meetings (dating back to 2014) and only 1 win has been at this venue.
Verdict
The Knights need to be wary of two things; the wounded Sea Eagles desperate for a win and believing in the ‘hype’ which last week’s effort generated. Truth be told, their recent for has been underwhelming and they will need to improve their consistency if they are to change opinions of them. The Knights are strong favourites for this game and again, last week has clouded the form ahead of this game. Sure, as good as the Knights were, the Sea Eagles were poor. They need to lift and produce a different effort here. There is doubt around both sides and given this, it is difficult to invest on a team in the Head-to-Head market. What is more certain is a better performance from the visitors. They are desperate to remain in contact with the Top 8 and given the Knights only just overcame the Sea Eagles in Round 8 (14-12), the line given for the Sea Eagles is too good to overlook.
Wests Tigers (10th) v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (16th)
The Tigers were looking for a big hole to crawl in following their abysmal 44-4 loss to the Knights on the road. It was disgraceful to say the least and left the fans vocal on what changes should be made. With just 47% possession, they completed at just 65%, made just over 300m less than the Knights, had only 1 linebreak, and 15 total errors. If anything, they proved to many that they are not a side deserving of finals football this year. It was a similar story for the Bulldogs who were comprehensively beaten by the Storm on the road. Unlike the Tigers, expectations for the Bulldogs are low each week and they played accordingly. They too struggled in many areas; they had a 69% completion rate, averaged just 7.8m per carry, had 2 total linebreaks and missed 33 total tackles. Unfortunately for fans of the game, the form of both sides heading into this fixture doesn’t read well. Even the most hardened rugby league fan will find it difficult to get excited for this game.
The Stats
Each week when previewing the Bulldogs, their poor statistics are highlighted. This week is no different but a more concerted effort has been made to have positives statistics for them; unfortunately, that task is more difficult than it seems. In metres made, the Tigers are 9th with 1669m per game, ahead of the Bulldogs who are 14th with 1560.5m. In terms of post contact metres, the Tigers average 559.3m (11th) compared with the Bulldogs 500.6m (14th). Their playmakers also have a slight advantage, averaging 2.9 assists per game (6th) compared with the Bulldogs 1.8 per game (15th).
Verdict
With the Tigers (38%) and Bulldogs (15%) both have poor winning records, this is an ugly game to jump into with any confidence. The fact that the Tigers only have a 33% winning record at this ground (Bulldogs 44%) only clouds judgement further. Nevertheless, the Tigers are strong favourites for this game and hope is high that they can turn their form around. You cannot discredit the Bulldogs but the quality simply isn’t there, they make up for it in effort. That is something that this current Tigers team would wish they had more of in certain performances. Without much confidence in this game, the suggestion will be to take the home side by less than 2 converted tries. The weather isn’t expected to be great either so expect a tight contest either way.
