A few Brownlow betting markets have started to open up with the best Australian sportsbooks, with Brownlow Team Votes one of the first markets available. We preview the leading vote getters in each AFL team and compare to the betting markets on offer to find a few tasty Brownlow bets!
Rory Laird is the favourite with the bookies at Adelaide with Sportsbet offering the best odds at the time of writing at $1.80 to poll the most Brownlow votes for the Crows. We think it’s going to be a little closer than that, and we have it as a virtual coin flip between Laird and Matt Crouch. Other vote getters include Brad Crouch and Reilly O’Brien but they aren’t going to get close. This is a two-horse race. We’ve got Laird potentially polling 7 votes in four games, while Matt Crouch is a chance for 8 votes in five games but a couple of those are only outside chances. A potential small bet on Crouch at the prices.
Brisbane (without Neale) seems pretty certain to go with Jarryd Lyons and the bookies agree. We’ve got him polling comfortably in four games, while Dayne Zorko, Hugh McLuggage and Jarrod Berry seem more likely to vote in three games and will be a few votes behind Lyons. Not a lot of value in the price, but hard to suggest anyone else, so maybe a multi banker.
Things are a bit more interesting at Carlton. Patrick Cripps would’ve been a short-priced favourite at the start of the season but battles with injury prevented Cripps from his best. We only have Cripps polling in four games for a total of 8.5 votes this season. However Sam Walsh had a breakout year and should poll well. We have Walsh polling 9.5 votes in up to six games, but a couple are borderline, so if he can pinch a vote in those games, he should get over the line. Unibet have generous price on Cripps if you want a saver.
Collingwood is super tight and I’m reluctant to bet here as the players are very similar and votes could easily go in different directions. We have Taylor Adams narrowly ahead with votes in up to seven games, but possibly no best-on-ground awards. Scott Pendlebury is right up there after collecting 3 votes in several games, while Adam Treloar had a burst of form before falling to injury. If anything, the value is with Treloar but not a market I’d want to get involved in.
Zach Merrett looks a clear winner at Essendon and the bookies agree. We’ve got him polling in seven games with several best-on-ground efforts so hard to see him getting beat here. Andrew McGrath is the only threat with a couple of strong games but hard to see him doing enough to win. The bookies like Dylan Shiel more than we do, so would be happy to take McGrath vs Shiel head-to-head, but the team voting is a no bet.
Freo might be a tricky one. We have Nat Fyfe in front, but only just, but remarkably have him potentially polling in ten games for his 11 votes. We got Fyfe very wrong last year, so if we haven’t learnt from our mistakes, a few of those mediocre games might poll better than we think. Andrew Brayshaw is next best, but there’s not really enough value in his price to take on Fyfe, so we’ll also leave this one alone.
Might be some value at Geelong where Sam Menegola, Patrick Dangerfield and Cam Guthrie all had very good seasons. Menegola missed out on the All Australian spot, but we have him polling more votes than the other two. We have him polling in seven games for 16 votes, which includes 3 or 4 best-on-ground efforts. That’s some strong numbers. We were all over Dangerfield last season, but he under-polled on our expectations. This season we also have him polling in seven games, but only two of those are 3 votes, while a couple of others are on the fringe of any votes at all. Guthrie’s votes seem more defined with 3-4 standout performances but not a lot else for the season. Happy to take some of the price of Menegola with a four vote buffer over Dangerfield.
Nothing to really consider at the Gold Coast with Matt Rowell doing enough in three games to win their club voting pretty comfortably, and no price offered by the bookies. Bank it in your multis and move on.
A poor Brownlow year for the usually prolific Giants, and it does make the most team votes a pretty open market. There won’t be much between Toby Greene, Lachie Whitfield, Josh Kelly, Nick Haynes or Harry Perryman, so look for the value if you’re keen to bet here. Interestingly, we have Kelly potentially voting in seven games, but nothing more than 1 vote, while we have Greene polling in just three games but two lots of 3 votes. The bookies lean to Whitfield, so if you’re happy to take him on, you could build a nice book with the other prices.
It’s a two-horse race at Hawthorn. The bookies are pretty heavily in favour of Tom Mitchell, and that’s understandable as he’s a former Brownlow medallist. By his standards, he had a poor year and we’ve only got him polling in four games. Chad Wingard can definitely cause an upset and we have him on seven votes after the first four rounds of the season! But there wasn’t much to talk about after that with Wingard. Wish there was a bit more value offered on Wingard to take the gamble on him, but at the prices, we probably have to leave it.
Christian Petracca simply wins Melbourne, but the only value is in using him to boost your multis. The bookies pretty much agree with our numbers, so not much to talk about here.
Pretty keen to jump into North Melbourne team voting with Jed Anderson a clear choice in our eyes. We do have him polling strongly, including 3 votes in a Round 18 loss which is a risk, but he was extremely consistent this season and stood out in a rather pathetic team. Let’s be honest, he doesn’t have a lot to beat here. Shaun Higgins always looks good and catches the umpire’s eye, but he was playing half-forward this season, and we’ve only got him polling in three games and none are maximums. Todd Goldstein was great in Round 2 and then did nothing else all season. Luke McDonald won a lot of ball but it was a lot of junk and hard to see him polling strongly. It all points to Anderson as a clear bet, and would be keen to look for Anderson vs Goldstein in head-to-head markets.
Travis Boak is a lock at Port Adelaide, but Sportsbet have a market without Boak that we can look at. Without Boak, it looks like a coin flip between Ollie Wines and Tom Rockliff. Both have had very similar seasons. We’ve got both polling in six games, with a lot of 2 vote games, but not a lot of 3 vote games. It’s hard to see anyone else getting near, so you could potentially back one and saver the other but not a lot of value there.
Dustin Martin is a lock to win Richmond with a predicted 17 votes. The next best by our counts is Kane Lambert with just 6. Richmond games are always impossible to predict as they do not have a lot of standout ball winners, and spread the load so evenly amongst the team. We’ve got Lambert, Trent Cotchin and Shai Bolton all polling in just two games, but we’ve given Lambert the 3 votes on each occasion. If you think that’s enough, then his price might be worth a spec bet.
Jack Steele had a fantastic year and is possibly going to finish top 3 in the Brownlow. With Steele out of the equation, it’s between Zac Jones and Jack Billings at St.Kilda. Billings started the season well, but then dropped away, but we have him polling 10 votes in six games. Jones was probably a bit more consistent but also polled in just six games. Too close to call! Rowan Marshall is the wildcard, but it’s so hard for ruckmen to poll well, so his 8 votes is probably his maximum result.
Luke Parker is a pretty comfortable winner at Sydney, so Sportsbet have a market without him included which makes things a little more interesting. Josh Kennedy is the favourite and a typical over-poller so I’m not too keen to take him on, despite the closeness in our votes. Kennedy is a chance in as many as six games, but several of those are on the fringe where he may also miss out. Isaac Heeney appears set to only poll in two games, but both of those may be best on field.
West Coast looks a fun market to keep an eye on. We’ve got Nic Naitanui and Tim Kelly tied on 11 votes, with Andrew Gaff and Dom Sheed close behind. Nic Nat was arguably the most influential player but he plays limited minutes and ruckmen traditionally don’t poll well. Kelly had a pretty up and down season, but did star in a couple of games with three best-on-grounds in his tally. Gaff was more consistent, polling in as many as eight games, but none were worth more than 2 votes.
We've saved the best until last as the Bulldogs look like the best bet of the Brownlow teams, with Jack Macrae neck and neck in the betting with Marcus Bontempelli at the Bulldogs. For our counts, we have Macrae with a sizable advantage. We have him polling in eight matches, including three best-on-ground performances. The Bont is definitely a strong over-poller but we only have him getting votes in five matches, with two of those worth 3 votes. Happy to concede Bont could poll better than that, but the media love to hype him up and we have a 4.5 vote lead for Macrae so at the even money odds, Macrae is a great bet.
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