2019 Cox Plate Preview & Betting Tips

The 2019 Cox Plate headlines racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, October 26th.

We have a final field of 14 lining up over the 2040m, with five international raiders beefing up the field.

The track is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail remaining in the True position as it was for the Manikato Stakes meeting on Friday night, and even though there is rain predicted throughout the day, I suspect it will remain in the Good range given there's only up to 3mm forecast.

We've provided an in-depth preview of the race below, with our speed map, runner-by-runner comments and top four selections!

2019 Cox Plate Preview & Betting Tips

Speed map & tempo

This speedmap is just about anyone’s guess. What we do know is that (5) Homesman will lead. He’ll start from barrier 12 after emergencies are scratched and he looks the only genuine leader in the race, so expect him to come across and find the rail. The big question is what Damian Lane will decide to do aboard the favourite (9) Lys Gracieux. This horse had been typically ridden off speed, but Lane sent her forward to sit outside the leader in her most recent start, when she jumped from the widest gate. That obviously worked to great effect as she bolted in by 3L. She’ll come into barrier 11 of 14 here and with the way the Valley races, I think he’ll bite the bullet and send her forward early to sit outside Homesman. (4) Harlem should poke through to sit in the box seat from barrier 1 and I think Ryan Moore will be positive early on (10) Magic Wand, who draws just outside Harlem in barrier 2. It’s likely they sit third and fourth in the run behind the frontrunners. The map looks awkward for (1) Black Heart Bart from barrier 10. There’s plenty of speed drawn inside him and they like to have him in the front half so there’s every chance he gets posted. Connections of (12) Mystic Journey have already notified of their intention to go forward. She’ll start from barrier, but with Harlem and Magic Wand drawn inside her, she might just have to settle one pair further back off the rail. That might leave room for (14) Castelvecchio to push through on the inside. I suspect with the light weight they’ll want to be positive and sit midfield if they can, but he’s likely to have to sit on the rail. (3) Kluger should be able to find a spot in midfield, probably three-wide with cover, and the same can probably be said for (11) Cape Of Good Hope. (2) Avilius probably settles somewhere worse than midfield inside those two from barrier 6, with (13) Verry Elleegant potentially inside him. (8) Danceteria will be ridden cold from barrier 9, which leaves (6) Kings Will Dream and (7) Te Akau Shark to bring up the field at the rear from their wide draws. There’s a chance Kings Will Dream could try and slot in further forward but he’d be risking getting caught wide without cover in that case. Overall, I think we'll get a moderate tempo here. There's not a whole lot of speed but the likely frontrunners are draw wide, meaning it could take them a bit of time to find their spots. That could stretch the field out a touch.

Runner-by-runner analysis

(1) Black Heart Bart: Evidently a rejuvenated horse this preparation and he proved his G1 Underwood Stakes victory two starts ago was no fluke, with a terrific run in defeat in the G1 Caulfield Stakes last start. If he had have drawn a barrier here, I'd be suggesting he's probably over the odds again at $26. He probably still is, because he accounted for the likes of Avilius quite comfortably last start and that horse is more than half his price. The barrier is the major issue. There is speed drawn inside him and I think they'll be trying to push forward in the hope of slotting in somewhere forward of midfield, but I can't see that happening. I think he's probably going to get caught three-wide, probably without cover. If he was to find a position somewhere in midfield with cover, it wouldn't shock me at all to see him run another huge race.

(2) Avilius: The jury is out. His only win this prep was on soft ground on a big track at Randwick, but he failed to replicate that when he could only manage 4th in the Caulfield Stakes last start. Now, he ran the equal-fastest final 400m of the race and the second-fastest final 200m, so his run was credible, but is he going to be able to pick them up from back in the field, likely with traffic ahead of him? For mine, he'd need the rain to come and the track to be downgraded for him to win this. He also remains inconclusive on The Valley circuit, with his only start coming last year behind Winx. I'll be letting him go around without my money today.

(3) Kluger: Potentially one of the forgotten horses in the race. His two runs in Australia last prep were terrific, firstly when 4th behind Brutal in the Doncaster, and then 2nd behind Winx over 2000m. He had one start back in Japan to open his campaign before travelling out here for this race, and although he only managed a midfield finish, he typically goes better second up. He's a Group 2 horse at his absolute best in Japan, but we saw a Group 3 Japanese horse win the Caulfield Cup last weekend, so he shouldn't be underrated, especially on the strength of his form when he's run in Australia.

(4) Harlem: Looks to be coming good at the right stage of his preparation. He was outsprinted early in the straight but he was hitting the line hard when finishing 3rd in the G1 Caulfield Stakes last start. He was beaten 1.6L by Cape Of Good Hope and Black Heart Bart, but he does draw softly in barrier 2, which should allow him to get a good run behind the leaders in a race that looks to have just a moderate tempo. I think they'll be looking to get off the rail as early as they can because Homesman is likely to fall back in his lap if they don't. The query for him is the fact all his career win have been when he's second or third up. He comes into this fifth up. He's also had two starts here at The Valley and has been unimpressive in both.

(5) Homesman: Started his campaign in outstanding form, bolting in to win the G2 Feehan Stakes here before being beaten 0.2L by Black Heart Bart in the G1 Underwood Stakes, where he travelled wide without cover throughout. That may have cooked him, because he was poor in defeat in the G1 Caulfield Stakes last start after sitting outside the leader. He did start $4.40 in that race so the market expected him to perform well, and maybe he can bounce back off a flat run. His two runs here at Moonee Valley have produced a 0.2L 2nd and a 2.5L win, so he goes well here, and he should be able to get across and lead from his wide draw. The stable aren't exactly flying but if you take out his last start, his form certainly isn't the worst.

(6) Kings Will Dream: Back to his best when winning the G1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington last start. He did win on a day that was playing to on-speed horses, so he was suited to the conditions, but he suffered a fractured pelvis in this race last year so it's an amazing feat to have him back winning G1s. The big negative for him is barrier 13 today. He's a pretty versatile horse but that's going to make it hard for him. I suspect he'll be ridden dead cold from the gate and try to find his way into a three-wide running lane, as often happens with Waller/Bowman runners drawn wide. Adelaide won this race in 2014 from barrier 13, making a long, sustained looping run from the back of the field. I doubt this horse can replicate that.

(7) Te Akau Shark: Running some terrific races in defeat leading into this and he's as consistent as ever, with eight top-two finishes from nine career starts, but he's got the job ahead of him here. He's been hurt by the barrier draw; he'll start from the widest gate, 14. A softer draw would have allowed him to settle midfield and have him within striking distance on the turn, but he's going to be forced back to the back of the field from that draw. That's a big enough task in itself, let alone for a horse that's never raced over 2000m in its career leading into this. There is some legitimate Group 1 2000m horses in this field and for him to win at his first go at the distance from that draw would be nothing short of extraordinary.

(8) Danceteria: Probably the horse I don't have too much of a read on, but I think had he lined up in the G1 Caulfield Stakes he probably would have won. He pulled up with mucus after a gallop leading into that race so the decision was made to scratch him and get him spot on for this race. It must be some concern that he missed that intended run, but he's obviously a high-class animal. He was a Group 1 winner at his last start, sauting over 2000m in Germany. The big concern I have with that race is the form of the 2nd and 3rd horses hasn't stood up at all. Wai Key Star (2nd) finished 5th in a G3 and then 3rd in a Listed race following his run behind Danceteria, while Quest The Moon (3rd) ran last in a G2 at his next start. With all that said, there aren't many local WFA stars in this field, so Danceteria's European form would probably see him very competitive. According to his trainer, he tends to jump slowly and has a big stride, so he'll be near the back of the field and probably thee-wide so he has a bit of room. I'm wary of him, but will be taking him on.

(9) Lys Gracieux: The Japanese raider, and she's a clear top pick for me. In the past, we've seen G2 and G3 Japanese horses come out to Australia and their form holds up very well - Admire Rakti, Kluger and more recently, Mer De Glace are all examples. Mer De Glace was a Group 3 winner leading into the Caulfield Cup, and he went past them like they were tied to posts. But Lys Gracieux isn't a Group 3 horse, she's a legitimate Group 1 horse, which is a bit scary to think! Her 11 starts in Group 1 company have produced two wins and six placings. She's been to Hong Kong twice to compete in Group 1s and has been beaten less than a length on both occasions. The obvious query here is barrier 11 - what will Damian Lane do? She's settled back in the field in most of her races, but Lane took the bull by the horns and had her outside the leader from the widest barrier last start, before kicking away to win the G1 Takarazuka Kinen by 3L. That was his first ride on her and I dare say he'll look to do something similar here and just ride her like the best horse in the race. Outside of Homesman, I don't think there's a great deal of speed, so if he can get across from the barrier, she's going to be exceptionally hard to beat here.

(10) Magic Wand: The Irish raider representing Aidan O'Brien, who won this race in 2014 with Adelaide. She's just battling to get her head in front again; her last victory was 16 months ago but since then she's placed in eight of her 13 starts. She really is a globetrotter, having run in England, Ireland, France, Dubai and America. Last time she raced, she ran 2nd to Magical, a horse that's got form behind the likes of Enable and Crystal Ocean. After beating Magic Wand, Magical then went on to win another G1 at Royal Ascot, so the form is certainly very strong. Magic Wand has had six starts at the distance, resulting in five 2nds and a 3rd. She should get a beautiful run from barrier 2; Ryan Moore rides her and she's got the versatility to come from back in the field or settle right up on the speed. I think they'll use the gate to position forward of midfield and from there, I think she's going to run an enormous race. I can't quite believe she's a $14/$4.20 chance. If you're looking for an each way bet in the race, this is probably the one.

(11) Cape Of Good Hope: He lost his form in Europe last preparation, prompting Aidan O'Brien to get rid of him. David Hayes bought into him and with Coolmoore, decided to bring him to Australia, where he won a Group 1 at his first start in the country. He beat Black Heart Bart to take out the Caulfield Stakes in a surprise return to form. He settled worse than midfield on that occasion and I think we'll see him ridden similarly here form barrier 7, potentially in a three-wide running line so he's out in the clear. I think there's others with much stronger European form than him in this race, but I suppose he's got one thing over them in that he's won here leading into this. Has to be an each way hope but I'll take him on.

(12) Mystic Journey: A bit tricky to know what to make of her. I think she's short enough at $7.50 but I don't think she's without a chance. For me, she ticked the 2000m box in the Turnbull Stakes last start, where she came from second last on the turn to be beaten 1.8L in 5th. The race was run at a very moderate tempo, so she was entitled to sprint late, but she still recorded the fastest final 200m of the race. I don't have any concerns that she'll run the trip. She draws ideally in barrier 5 today and the stable were quick to notify of their intention to have her much further forward. I think they'll try and have her one pair back, but they might have to settle two pairs back around sixth given there is a couple drawn inside her which I expect to kick up. The form out of the Turnbull Stakes looks reasonably good, with Vow And Declare coming out of that race to run 2nd in the Caulfield Cup. She should get her chance here and she's a top four chance.

(13) Verry Elleegant: Interesting to see what tactics James McDonald uses here from barrier 4. Will we see her ridden further forward or will he just land where she's comfortable? I think the latter, which I expect to be around four pairs back in the run. She might fire up if he gives her a dig early. There's no doubt in my mind that she's a 2000m-2400m horse at this stage of her career, and she bounced back to form with a huge run to win the Hill Stakes in Sydney last start. She would benefit greatly from some rain because she loves the cut out of the ground and races much better. She's a very good horse on her day and perhaps flying a bit under the radar, but she's going to need some luck and will need to be at her absolute best.

(14) Castelvecchio: Gee, he's awfully short at $8.50! I think he's a place chance but there should be a 1 in front of that price in my opinion. He was huge in defeat behind Shadow Hero last start, coming from the rear to be beaten a length, having stepped up from 1400m to 2000m. He's undoubtedly a 2000m horse and the big things in his favour here are the good draw and the light weight. Three-year-olds have a good record in this race and they'll definitely be looking to have him settle further forward from barrier 3. It wouldn't surprise me to see him in the first half-dozen from there, so that they can use the weight to their advantage. They won't want to be caught back in the field on the rail. He'll be much better off for that run over the distance last start, and while he's an exciting horse going forward, I'd be very surprised if he won this.

Selections

There's a pretty clear top two for me here: (9) Lys Gracieux and (10) Magic Wand, but beyond them it's anyone's guess. Lys Gracieux is a legitimate Group 1 horse and comes into this off a 3L victory in G1 company in Japan. We don't need any reminders of just how strong the Japanese form is around these sorts of distances and she's a far superior horse to the horses we've seen measure up in Australia previously. If she gets a good run from her wide gate, I expect her to win. Magic Wand is a bit of a bridesmaid but she brings elite European form to this race. She gets a great run from the barrier and looks the clear value in the race at $14. (1) Black Heart Bart is flying but the map looks tricky for him. If he does manage to slot in, he'll run a big race. (8) Danceteria is a horse I don't have a great grip on. He's been in great form in Europe, but I do have genuine queries on the strength of the form. (12) Mystic Journey gets everything in her favour here and looks set to get every chance. (3) Kluger is a bit of a forgotten horse. I'm going to keep it simple and back Lys Gracieux and Magic Wand.

1st (9) LYS GRACIEUX $3.60

2nd (10) MAGIC WAND $14

3rd (12) MYSTIC JOURNEY $7.50

4th (3) KLUGER $19

Value: (10) Magic Wand $14

(9) Lys Gracieux

$3.60

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