We’re into the final two weeks of the AFL home and away season for 2019, which means it’s do or die for a lot of clubs hovering around the top eight. Here, we take a look at the five-game slate on Saturday and provide our best betting tips for each clash. Good luck to everyone following us this weekend!
AFL Saturday will be our focus today, but you can head to our AFL Tips Page for a bunch of content for Round 22 in the AFL including preview and tips for EVERY GAME.
AFL Round 22 Saturday Betting Tips
Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints (1:45pm, MCG)
The Blues put up a decent enough fight in their Round 21 loss to the Tigers to suggest they’re still on the improve. They went down to the rampaging Tigers by 28 points in what would turn out to be David Teague’s last game as caretake coach – he’s now the full-time coach!
The Saints played their part in a thriller against the Dockers in their match last weekend. They were down and seemingly out of it late in the fourth but managed to hit the front via a Jack Steven goal with under a minute remaining. The Saints now remain a mathematical chance of finals, but it would take an absolute miracle from their current position.
There’s absolutely nothing splitting these sides in the head-to-head market and we tend to agree. The Blues have the Teague narrative, while the Saints have a longshot at finals. We’ll be avoiding playing that market and will instead take the value on offer for Hunter Clark to rack up 25+ touches. He’s got a new role off the back flank and through the midfield, which has seen him collect 25+ in four of his last five games.
Hunter Clark 25+ Disposals
$1.91
Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats (2:10pm, Gabba)
The Lions have won eight on the spin and now find themselves in second spot on the ladder with a chance to leapfrog the Cats if they can get the chocolates on Saturday. The Lions hammered the Suns last weekend, led by Charlie Cameron with six goals in a BOG performance.
The Cats returned to form in slippery conditions against the Kangaroos last weekend. They were at their defensive best and kept the Kangaroos to just one goal for the entire match. The Cats remain on top of the ladder with two games remaining.
This fixture is tipped by many as the potential match of the round and we tend to agree. The winner will likely finish the season on top of the ladder, giving themselves a big advantage over the rest of the field during the finals. While the Lions have impressed with their second half of the season surge, we believe the class and wise heads of the Cats will prevail in this must-win clash.
We also like Zach Tuohy to collect 25+ disposals for a bit of value. He’s returned to full fitness and is seeing a lot more of the ball lately. Expect to see him and his fellow Cats defenders chip the ball around a bit to take the crowd out of the match early.
VALUE: Tuohy 25+ Disp $3.10 @ Sportsbet
Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies (4:35pm, AO)
The Crows played some good footy last weekend but were outclassed by the reigning premiers. They went down by 10 points despite a huge five-goal haul from young forward Darcy Fogarty. That loss saw the Crows slip out of the eight and has their finals hopes hanging by a thread.
The Magpies ticked over the win column again last weekend with a 17 point victory of the Demons. It wasn’t the most convincing of wins, but one that keeps their top four hopes alive. As usual, there’s been a bit of off-field drama circulating the Pies with Brayden ‘Phill Inn’ Sier copping some flack.
This is another really tough match that could genuinely go either way. Neither side has set the house on fire in recent weeks and you could probably flip a coin for the outcome here. For us, we’ll be taking the value available for Darcy Fogarty to kick 2+ goals. He was sensational last weekend and comes up against an undermanned Magpies backline. He’s a beautiful kick for goal, so only needs a couple of chances to salute.
Darcy Fogarty 2+ Goals
$2.10
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power (7:25pm, Marvel)
What an embarrassment Round 21 turned out to be for North Melbourne. They managed to kick just 1.8 against the Cats in what’s now their lowest ever score in club history. Big Toddy Goldstein was the saviour, kicking their first and only goal during the second quarter. Finals are now out of the equation for the boys at Arden Street.
The Power’s finals hopes have been resuscitated in a big way over the past fortnight. They’ve recorded back-to-back blowout wins and now find themselves in eighth spot with two games remaining. Rising Star nominee Connor Rozee showed his class again last weekend with a stellar 20-disposal three-goal performance.
We do expect some sort of a response from the Kangaroos this week, but we’ll be backing in the form team in Port Adelaide who must win to stay inside the top eight. They seem to play Marvel pretty well and should get the chocolates in an entertaining match.
Port Adelaide Power -4.5
$1.91
Fremantle Dockers vs Essendon Bombers (8:10pm, OS)
The Dockers lost a heartbreaker to the Saints last weekend and are now out of the finals race. A win would’ve had them level with the Power for points with a winnable game this week, but it just wasn’t to be. Superstar Nat Fyfe was BOG with 35 touches and two goals and could be line for his second career Brownlow Medal.
Last weekend the Bombers dished up the worst performance by any team this season. They kicked the first goal of the match against the Dogs, only to go on to concede the next 21 and lose by over 100 points. They remain inside the eight despite the loss, but boy oh boy do they need to turn their form around ASAP.
Which Essendon side will turn up this weekend? Your guess is as good as ours. We won’t be touching the head-to-head markets with a 10ft pole. Instead, we’ll be backing in Zach Merrett to have 30+ disposals, which he’s achieved in four of his last five games (also had 35 vs Dockers in Rd9).
Zach Merrett 30+ Disposals
$1.72
Saturday Sportsbet Multi
Blues vs Saints (Clark 25+ Disposals) = $1.91
Lions vs Cats (Tuohy 20+ Disposals) = $1.62
Crows vs Magpies (Fogarty 2+ Goals) = $2.10
Kangaroos vs Power (Power Win) = $1.72
Dockers vs Bombers (Merrett 30+ Disposals) = $1.72
Saturday 5-Leg Multi
$19.22
