The Group 1 Australian Guineas is Melbourne’s premier three-year-old race for the Autumn and headlines a nine-race card at Flemington this Saturday, March 3rd.
The race has attracted a capacity field of 16 runners and looks a hugely competitive affair. We’ve taken a detailed look at the race and offered our selections below!
2018 AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS – 1600M
HISTORICAL FACTORS
The record books show the males have an edge over the females, with colts or geldings winning eight of the past 10 editions of the race. Just three fillies have won this race in the past 25 years. History also shows that it pays to be with runners that have finished in the money (1st, 2nd or 3rd) at their most recent start. Just one horse in the past 21 years has won the Australian Guineas having finished outside the top 3 at their lead up run, and that was Shamrocker in 2011, who ran 4th in the Vanity before winning the Guineas as a $31 outsider. There’s not so much of a pattern with the barriers. We’ve seen horses such as Palentino and Mohseen win from the outside barrier in recent years, while last year’s winner Hey Doc started from barrier 1. Overall, I’d suggest the pattern shows you’d want to be drawn middle to outside barriers rather than inside barriers. Hey Doc won as favourite last year, which ended a run of eight outs for favourites in the race (all eight were unplaced!). Horses around the $5-$10 price range have a good record.
TEMPO & SPEED MAP
There looks a distinct lack of speed runners in this race, with (2) Cliff’s Edge, (8) Addictive Nature and (12) Black Sail the only notable on-pacers in the race. Expect Cliff’s Edge to roll across from the wide barrier, but he might struggle to hold out Addictive Nature. I suspect Black Sail will trail the pair from the good draw and opt for the box seat. Interesting to see what tactics are employed on (15) Aloisia and (11) Grunt – tipping we will see Oliver be positive on Grunt but less convinced about Zahra on Aloisia. (7) Main Stage and (3) Embellish should get great positions forward of midfield. (16) Bring Me Roses should be midfield on the rail, with (4) Levendi, (6) Villermont, (10) Salsamor and (13) Peaceful State all clumped together midfield or slightly worse. (1) Mighty Boss will be ridden much colder than he was last start in the Futurity. (5) Muraaqeb, (9) Holy Snow and (14) Mr So And So will be near the rear of the field. Overall, the tempo could be dependent on whether Cliff’s Edge really wants the front or whether he’s happy to sit outside of Addictive Nature. I think it will be a moderate first half of the race but if Cliff’s in front, the pressure could go on at the 800m.
RUNNER-BY-RUNNER ANALYSIS
(1) Mighty Boss | $13: Maybe the forgotten horse now with plenty jumping off after a poor showing in the Futurity Stakes last week. Michael Walker said he rode him way too close to the speed in that race and will be riding him cold here, so if you can forgive that performance then he’s in with a chance. First up was very good when beaten less than a length (and unlucky) against older horses in the Orr Stakes, and did win his Caulfield Guineas over this distance last prep. Wouldn’t be ruling him out.
(2) Cliff’s Edge | $4.50: Does look the one they all have to beat. His first up win was enormous, and the form out of that race has proved strong through the likes of Overshare, and his performance last start was just as good, having to sit three-wide without cover with top weight the entire trip. He was run down by Grunt, who was in his slipstream the whole way. He gets a 3.5kg weight swing on Grunt here, and with a lack of pace on paper, he should get across to at least sit outside the leader, if not lead. He’s yet to win at Flemington but he’s run 2nd on two occasions. Regular rider John Allen goes back on and he deserves favouritism. Hard to beat.
(3) Embellish | $21: New Zealand Group 1 winner over the distance. Had his first Australian start behind Grunt last time out, beaten just under three lengths. Back up in distance to the mile suits, and he was held up late in the race last start so with a clearer run from barrier 9 he could improve. Needs to improve quite significantly to turn the tables, though.
(4) Levendi| $19: Won the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes over this track and distance back in November, but was fairly disappointing first up behind Grunt, beaten 3.1L. Gets the blinkers applied for the first time here and Ben Melham goes back aboard with Damien Oliver sticking with Grunt. Priced about right, needs to improve to win but is capable at his best.
(5) Muraaqeb | $21: Looks a good roughie in the race. Looks to have returned in good style this preparation, with a 3rd placing behind Cliff’s Edge first up over 1200m followed by another 3rd placing behind Grunt and Cliff’s Edge in the CS Hayes Stakes last start. Ran home strongly from the back of the field on that occasion, indicating the mile will suit, but he’s once again going to get a long way back from barrier 15. Mark Zahra has ridden him in both starts this prep but jumps off to ride Aloisia.
(6) Villermont | $21: Looked a leading chance for this race after winning the Gr2 Sandown Guineas at the end of last preparation but was disappointing first up in the Gr2 Autumn Stakes at Caulfield, when finishing 7th of 11 as the $4.40 favourite. There’s no doubt he’s better suited second up at the mile on the bigger track here, but he’d need to improve several lengths on what he showed first up to be winning this.
(7) Main Stage | $21: Best roughie in the race, in my opinion. He backed up a very good trial with a terrific first up run in the CS Hayes Stakes, when beaten 1.8L into 4th behind Grunt. Settled a long way back in the field on that occasion and still ran home strongly between runners, and with a better barrier draw here there’s every chance we see him closer to the speed. He won second up last preparation and he also has a victory at this track to his name, when he ran down Cliff’s Edge over 1800m last prep. Looks a legitimate chance at big odds.
(8) Addictive Nature | $11: Could be a bit of a myth this horse. Started $2.50 favourite when soundly beaten by Trapeze Artist first up, and while that’s a fairly strong form line for a race like this, his effort last start in the Apollo Stakes exposed him. Steps up to 1600m now, a distance which remains a query after last start, and the only thing really in his favour here is the good draw and the lack of speed in the race, meaning he could find the lead and get a good run out the front. Happy to take him on, though.
(9) Holy Snow| $21: Followed up a good trial with a surprise win first up in the Gr2 Autumn Stakes over 1400m at Caulfield. Came from well back in the field to launch down the outside and win fairly comfortably in the end, and that indicates the mile at Flemington will really suit. Can he reproduce that kind of performance second up after a big first run? The query will be if he is flat, but three weeks between runs has given him a good chance to get over it. Once again will have to come from a long way back given he’s drawn wide and races that way anyway, so will need to be good, but a win wouldn’t shock.
(10) Salsamor | $35: Brings a slightly different form line to the typical CS Hayes/Autumn Stakes, as he resumed in a BM78 at Sandown, where he ran 2nd to King’s Command. He does have some decent form from last prep behind the likes of Showtime, Aloisia and Cliff’s Edge, but he was also beaten 9L by Aloisia last time they met. Can sit midfield from the barrier, will run an honest race but I’d be surprised if he ran into the money.
(11) Grunt | $6.50: Returned from a 53-day freshen up to run down Cliff’s Edge when winning the Gr3 CS Hayes Stakes last start, and that’s the race the last three Guineas winners have come through. He steps back up to the mile now – his only other start over 1600m was two starts ago in Adelaide when he was a dominant winner. There are a few queries for him here. First, he concedes a 3.5kg weight swing to Cliff’s Edge. Second, he had the perfect run slipstreaming Cliff’s Edge (whow as three-wide without cover the whole race) last start. And third, where does he get to from barrier 17 here? I think they’ll be fairly positive but they’ll need to slot in or risk being caught three-wide. If he finds cover and a good spot in running, he’ll be right there at the finish, no doubt.
(12) Black Sail | $31: Only has the one win from nine starts to his name, but he’s been competitive in good races throughout his career. Has form behind the likes of Temple Of Bel, Villermont and Peaceful State from last prep, but he was only fair first up when finishing midfield behind Holy Snow in the Gr2 Autumn Stakes. Blinkers come off, he’ll go forward and likely box seat from barrier 3, can run honest but needs to improve significantly to finish top 3.
(13) Peaceful State | $15: Probably the biggest ‘query’ runner in the race. Like Villermont, he was earmarked as a leading contender for this race when he finished 2nd in the Sandown Guineas at the end of last prep. Returned with an enormous run to win first up over 1300m at Sandown in Wednesday grade, but was disappointing in the CS Hayes Stakes last start. Was he simply outclassed and exposed or was he flat from his big first up run? John Allen sticks with Cliff’s Edge so Brad Rawiller takes the ride, and I expect he’ll get a great run in midfield from the barrier. I’ve taken him on but we know Weir will have him cherry ripe for this race as he’s third up in a Group 1 at Flemington. Chance.
(14) Mr So And So | $23: Looks to be going well but just keeps getting too far back. Ran home as well as Holy Snow when finishing 2nd in the Gr2 Autumn Stakes two starts ago, but could only manage 3rd behind Valiant Spirit in the Gr2 Autumn Classic last start. That race looks a class below this. He’ll get back regardless of the good draw, which could give him traffic problems, and the drop from 1800m to 1600m probably doesn’t suit him much either.
(15) Aloisia | $8.00: Quite terrified of her. At her best, she’d win this, but has she returned in the same fettle that saw her win the Gr1 Thousand Guineas and Gr2 Moonee Valley Vase last prep? In the latter, she gave Cliff’s Edge windburn, but she went on to fail in the Oaks (2500m) and her only trial leading into this prep suggested she may be struggling. Her first up run was OK – she ran home well to finish 5th, beaten 2L behind Rimraam in the Vanity. Shamrocker (2011) and Mosheen (2012) both won this race having contested the Vanity at their last start, so it can be done, but you have to go back to Flying Spur in 1996 to find a horse that’s won this race having finished outside the top 4 in their lead-up run. Zahra jumps off Muraaqeb to ride her, so that’s a good lead, and trainer Aaron Purcell said he expects her “to be winning” based on the improvement she’s made from her first up run.
(16) Bring Me Roses | $21: If Aloisia is a chance, then Bring Me Roses must also be a chance. She was beaten a nose first up in the Vanity behind Rimraam, 1.8L ahead of Aloisia back in 5th. Her only start at this track and distance resulted in a dominant win in the Gr2 Edward Manifold Stakes, where she charged home from the back of the field to win by 2.25L. Barrier 1 isn’t ideal for her, but she should sit midfield on the rail. Could see her running well.
SUMMARY
I’m tipping the boys to beat the girls here. (2) Cliff’s Edge will need a trouble-free run getting over from the outside barrier, and if he could find the lead without much trouble it would be ideal. I think if that happens, he can turn the tables on (11) Grunt, with a 3.5kg weight swing in his favour sure to help. Grunt is going to need some luck slotting in, but if Oliver can find cover there’s no doubt he’ll be motoring home late. (7) Main Stage is the best roughie in the race at $21. (13) Peaceful State and (15) Aloisia are the two horses I’m terrified of, while (5) Muraaqeb has claims at big odds.
SELECTIONS
1ST (2) CLIFF’S EDGE
2ND (11) GRUNT
3RD (7) MAIN STAGE
4TH (15) ALOISIA
