The Group 2 UBET Adelaide Cup is set to be run at Morphettville on Monday, March 12th, with a field of 17 runners lining up for the 3200m event.
Recent history suggests those with low-middle weights fare best in this race, with the past seven winners carrying between 53kg-56kg. That’s not to say you can’t carry a big weight – three of the four winners between 2007-2010 carried 57kg+. Just one of the last 15 winners of the Adelaide Cup won their last start. Low barrier draws tend to be advantageous, with just three of the past 13 winners starting from outside barrier 10. Favourites have struggled in recent years, with the past seven favourites going down. Five of those last seven winners won at double figure odds.
The more I look at the race, the more (11) Ormito looks suited, but I just don’t know if I can take $5.50 about a horse that’s won one race from 22 starts. He’s been close up with placings in his past four starts and comes out of a race that’s proven to be a successful lead up race for this in recent years. He’s drawn low in barrier 5, Craig Williams takes the ride, and he carries just 53kg. If his win record was a bit better, I’d have him a pretty clear top pick.
If (9) O’Lonera can slot in from barrier 17, he might be right in this. I took him on last start on the basis that he was jumping from 2000m to 2500m, but he only went down by the barest of margins, and finished ahead of Ormito. Given how well he ran despite the sharp step up in trip, that eases the concerns about the step up from 2500m to 3200m here. $10 appeals here.
(4) Fanatic appears to be peaking for today’s race, having her fourth run this preparation. She ran a big race when finishing 2nd behind Aloft at Flemington last start, with Ormito back in 3rd. She’s an out-and-out stayer and has won over 3200m previously – a big advantage in a race like this where there’s plenty that won’t run the trip. Softly drawn in barrier 3 but the 57.5kg is a big impost.
The Launceston Cup is another successful form line for this race and (5) Pretty Punk ran 3rd in that race last start. Based on her form she’s a live chance in this, and she’s drawn very well in barrier 8. She’s only a four-year-old mare though, so how will she handle the 57kg over the 3200m here against older horses?
The two best roughies in the race could be (10) Al Haram and (18) Poppiholla. Al Haram ran 2nd over 3000m at Moonee Valley last start and looks as if 3200m is right up his alley. He’ll appreciate the drop back from 58kg to 53kg for this and if he can overcome the sticky draw, he looks capable of running a big race. He’s certainly in the right stable to do so. Poppiholla, on the other hand, has been knocking on the door for several starts and hasn’t had much luck at all. With a low weight and a middle draw, she can pop up and run a bold race at $41.
(7) Exalted Lightning not hopeless.
I’ll be backing O’Lonera ($10), with something small on Al Haram ($13) and Poppiholla ($41). Saving on Ormito ($5.50) and Fanatic ($4.80).
1st O’LONERA
2nd ORMITO
3rd AL HARAM
4th FANATIC
