The 89th Academy Awards will air live on Fox8 Monday 12.30pm (AEDT), and of course, we have got you covered with a full preview and 2017 Oscars Betting Tips for movies night of nights.
In terms of betting, it’s one of the most lacklustre Oscars we’ve had in recent years, with hit musical ‘La La Land’ heavily favoured to clean up in a lot of the major categories. However, we’ll try to find some value where we can as we provide you with our tips for the night.
The favourite hasn’t always taken home the major prize in the award for best picture, and while we do expect La La Land to get the win here, there is some value in backing the 'roughie'. The last two years have produced upset victories in Best Picture, with ‘Spotlight’ beating heavily favoured ‘The Revenant’ last year and ‘Birdman’ earning the nod in 2015 over ‘American Sniper’ and ‘The Theory of Everything’. With the Academy earning some fairly public criticism of their neglect of movies produced by and starring minorities, we could see them lean another way than ‘La La Land’ this year, possibly to a movie like ‘Moonlight’, which has a predominantly black cast and which has been the most critically aclaimed movie of 2016. La La Land has all the hype, but these odds for Moonlight are too good to pass up. If you want to play it a little more conservatively, you can get $4.50 for the field vs La La Land at Sportsbet - though if you don't think Moonlight is the only movie that can beat La La Land, perhaps consider the huge odds for Manchester by the Sea, Hidden Figures or Lion. Outside of these few, the rest don't even deserve mention in a betting sense.
Casey Affleck will be looking to join his brother as an Oscar winner Monday when he enters as favourite to win ‘Best Actor’ for his outstanding portrayal of Lee Chandler in ‘Manchester by the Sea’. The movie is also nominated for best picture, and could go close to taking that out, so Affleck is a real chance here. His main competition could be 2-time Oscar winner Denzel Washington (Fences), who will be aiming for his 2nd Best Actor award after winning for ‘Training Day’ back in 2002. The only other mentionable here is Ryan Gosling for his role in La La Land. We think Casey Affleck will get the nod here.
2017 Oscars Quick Picks
As a lot of the remaining categories have some pretty low priced favourites who we think will most likely take out the statues, we have gone with some quick picks to try to get some value out of some of some specials markets and the less known awards.
While many critics think Emma Stone’s performance in ‘La La Land’ was lacking a bit, she’s still heavily favoured to win the award that is a relatively weak field compared to years past. Merryl Streep has earned her annual Best Actress nomination but in a poorer performance than her usual standards. We think Stone takes it out here to join a brigade of new young actresses to take out the award in the past few years. The Actor/Actress double for Affleck and Stone to win their respective awards is a handy $1.90 here.
Considering it’s a musical that is already a $1.17 favourite to take out Best Picture, we think ‘La La Land’ should take out the ‘Best Original Score’ quite comfortably. Its main threats will be the likes of Moonlight, Jackie and Australian film ‘Lion’, but we think it has them covered and it should be a solid consolation if it doesn’t end up winning the big one. It’s short priced but should be a relative lock. If you can find a agency that will let you multi Oscar markets you’re set.
Value is limited here, and the only other market that offers us something could be the one for ‘Best Original Screenplay’ in which Kenneth Lonergan is the favourite for his work on ‘Manchester by the Sea’. In one of the only markets that La La Land doesn’t have a stranglehold on, we could see possibly the next most critically acclaimed movie of the year take out the writing award here. At $1.62 there’s a little bit of meat on the bone.
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