Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Guineas Day at Caulfield this Saturday, October 14th.
We’re right in the thick of the Melbourne Spring Carnival now, with all 10 races on the card being black-type, including four at Group 1 level!
The Group 1 Caulfield Guineas is the feature race of the day, supported by the Thousand Guineas, Caulfield Stakes and Toorak Handicap.
Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!
In Episode 4 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Randwick and Caulfield and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Saturday, October 14th! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
We have betting tips and comments for every race below!
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 3 Legless Veuve
Best Value: Race 2 Kidmenever
Race 1
Absolute lottery to begin here with a field of debutantes, five of which haven’t trialled publicly. Generally when there’s market support for a Tony Vasil two-year-old that’s been unseen at the trials, it’s rarely wrong, so we absolutely have to respect CORONEL. BINDING FORCE trialled well in Adelaide and similarly, whenever Phillip Stokes brings any horse to Melbourne we have to take note. The only query with Binding Force is the fact the horse that beat him in the trial then came out and finished last on debut. We saw a Godolphin colt go close last weekend in a similar type of race so ENCRYPTION may be worth considering, but I’ll be taking him on here given James Cummings didn’t list him in his top three chances for the meeting. SACRED SWORD runs for the combination of Tony McEvoy and Luke Currie, while Hayes/Dabernig are represented by three horses. GRAND CHALLENGE and QAFILA look the best of their chances. Grand Challenge trialled exceptionally but Hayes suggested we wait until he gets over a bit more ground, but he was very bullish about the prospects of Qafila, who won a trial in good style and gets Damian Oliver booked for the ride. Nightmare way to start off but I’ll have something each way on Qafila given the stable’s record with two-year-old’s and the good push from Hayes.
TIP: Qafila EW
Race 2
Intriguing race and one where I think the market is completely wrong with some horses. JORDA comes up favourite (which I think is right) and I’m happy to forgive her for last start and give her another chance here. James Cummings said he was worried going into that run and it told with the filly dropping out to finish 8th as the short-priced favourite. That was her first time down the Flemington straight and she pulled up with slow post-race recovery too, so there were excuses. She gets back around a corner here which is a big plus and draws barrier 1 so will get a great run. A similar performance to her 3rd placing behind Pariah first up would see her win this. LUQYAA draws barrier 19 but that’s no reason for her to be triple the price of SPLIT LIP and double that of TRUE EXCELSIOR. Luqyaa ran 3rd first up, splitting Split Lip in 2nd and True Excelsior in 4th. She ran home really strongly on that occasion and comes into this ready to improve second up, so I’ll be including her at double figure odds despite the poor draw. Split Lip and True Excelsior both had their last starts behind Houtzen at Moonee Valley. Both can run well again here from their perfect barrier draws, but I just think they’re a touch short. COUNTERPLAY is a live chance in this. Should have just about won last start and the horses that ran the quinella in that race were Bandipur and I Did It Again. Counterplay was three-wide on speed and was charging through the line when she got flattened close to home. Tough draw but keen to back her again. THE QUEEN’S REWARD should no way be $21 if DIVINE MESSENGER is $10. The Queen’s Reward beat her on debut and then stormed home from last to run 2nd to Divine Messenger over 1000m last start. The step up to 1200m is ideal and she gets a 2.5kg weight swing in her favour so I think they’ve got the odds wrong there. Wide open race this, backing Jorda and Counterplay but Luqyaa and The Queen’s Reward are two to follow at big odds.
TIP: Jorda / Counterplay EW
Race 3
Nice race but I’ve got to stick with the two class runners of the field at the top of the weights. LEGLESS VEUVE ran a big race first up at double figure odds and if anything she’s better suited here. She motored home once she was clear to be beaten a nose by Savanna Amour, with Ravi back in 3rd. Neither of those two mares line up here so she’s a deserved favourite. Draws perfectly, has a good second up record (her only failure she pulled up with internal issues), has finished in the top two at four of her five starts at the distance, and has finished top two in both starts at the track. Looks a very nice race for her. MISS GUNPOWDER has a terrific first up record with three wins and a 2nd from five starts. She draws poorly in barrier 11 so I’d expect them to ride her negative, just as they did first up last prep when she won. If something is going to beat Legless Veuve I expect it to be her. DESERT LASHES began her career in Alice Springs and kept her undefeated record intact when she started racing in Adelaide. She resumed with an admirable 2nd placing first up to take her record to eight wins and one 2nd from nine starts. She’s undefeated at this distance and we can expect her to go straight to the lead, which should be a good place to be around Caulfield on Saturday. I have to take on the Adelaide form here against Legless Veuve and Miss Gunpowder though. COOL PASSION previously raced in WA before also making the move to Adelaide this prep. Last start she ran home strongly to finish half-a-length behind Desert Lashes in 3rd, and her record at both this distance and second up from a spell are terrific. I do think she will need to improve to win though. PEDRENA is a classy mare who holds a victory over Samovare, but I think she’ll be better over 1400m, while RUN GYPSY RUN could run a bold race given she’s undefeated fresh. Backing Legless Veuve with a saver on Miss Gunpowder.
TIP: Legless Veuve (Best Bet)
Race 4
Interesting race with a couple of key international runners heading towards the Cups. I can’t believe the price about KIDMENEVER here. This Godolphin horse is trained by Charlie Appleby, who has won six of the 10 races he’s had runners in in Australia. He won the Swiss Derby over this distance before being transferred to Appleby last year. He’s had four starts for the stable, resulting in three placings and a close-up fourth. The main concern would be his first up record, but since he’s been with Appleby he’s improved and has run 4th and 3rd in two good races when fresh, and they wouldn’t bring him here unfit. Appleby basically said he’d like the horse to win well enough so that he gets a decent penalty in order to gain a start in the Melbourne Cup. That tells me he’s ready to go and based on what we’ve seen this stable do in Australia, he should go very close. We’re getting $6.50 which is a terrific each way price. The other international is the topweight WALL OF FIRE. He ran well last start to run 3rd in Group 3 company off a similar break to what he comes into this off today. His most recent racing – and his last two wins – have come over 2700m-3200m, so he may need a touch further than this. FOUNDRY won the Group 1 Metropolitan in Sydney last start. He carries 50.5kg that day so he goes up quite significantly in weight here, but he’s got a good record and should run well again. The query is how strong that Metropolitan was; it was one of the weaker editions of the race in recent years. ALOFT comes into this third up after following up a good first up win with a solid 3rd placing behind Almandin and Crocodile Rock last start. He’ll run well. GALLIC CHIEFTAIN ran huge behind Jon Snow last start and has two wins from three starts when third up so he’s ready to win, while BOOM TIME is also getting close and has won over this track and distance.
TIP: Kidmenever EW (Best Value)
Race 5
Not a great race and nothing really stands out. I wanted to take on RELIGIFY but there wasn’t anything in the race that I was convinced would beat it. Waller’s gelding is first up here and his fresh record is good, with three wins and two placings from six runs. He’ll jump straight to the front and my only real concern is Dwayne Dunn as his rider, because Dunn notoriously goes too slow on leaders which isn’t how this horse needs to be ridden. The other slight concern is 60.5kg first up, but he’s carried big weights to win numerous times in the past. The price is good enough to take at around $5. ATTENTION is the logical danger and he’ll also roll forward to sit on the pace. Put a line through his last run when the apprentice just gave him no chance with how hard he went in front. He’s Group 2 placed over this track and distance so with the senior rider back aboard today he should go close. OREGON’S DAY is a horse I really like and she will be suited by the good tempo, but the wide barrier really hurts. If she gets left without cover she will struggle, and if she gets too far back she will also struggle. She does have a great record at the track though, and has more than enough talent to win this with the big pull in the weights. MASK OF TIME and FASTNET TEMPEST are two internationals having their first Australian starts. Mask Of Time probably needs a touch further, but Fastnet Tempest would be very competitive from barrier 1 if he were to repeat his form from Ascot earlier this year. His past two starts have been poor. DIBAYANI should be competitive in this grade but he’s better in the Sydney direction rather than Melbourne. Having said that, he’s never missed a place second up and is Group 1 placed so $31 is a big price. ORIENT LINE the blowout; he can sneak a place in this field.
TIP: Religify / Dibayani EW
Race 6 – Group 1 Thousand Guineas
The Thousand Guineas looks at the mercy of ALIZEE here who was an ultra-impressive winner of the Group 1 Flight Stakes in Sydney last start. She won untouched last start, coming from well back in the field under hands and heels only and gave Champagne Cuddles a cold on the way past. Champagne Cuddles ran 2nd in the Golden Rose, so I think that formline is definitely the one to follow. Provided she gets even luck from the low barrier draw, Alizee is undoubtedly the one to beat here. There’s no real knock on SHOALS who was sound behind BOOKER last start. She gets up to 1600m third up here and the blinkers go on for the first time so from the good draw she will be very competitive. BOOKER will get a bit more pressure today with LEATHER’N’LACE in the race. They’ll both contest the lead and it could be run at a pretty strong tempo. Leather’n’lace is on the quick back-up after a gut-buster last week so that’s the query. I think the value lies in MINTHA and PURE SCOT. Mintha charged home behind Houtzen last start and Tony McEvoy has long had a good opinion of his filly so $15 appeals. Pure Scot has been flying home in every start this prep from impossible winning positions, and last start was held up until very late in the straight. When she got clear she flew home so she’s not without a chance. Follow her stepping up to 2000m in the future. ALOISIA was luckless first up and can be followed towards the Oaks. Alizee clear top pick, include Mintha and Pure Scot.
TIP: Alizee / Mintha EW
Race 7 – Group 1 Caulfield Stakes 2000m
Interesting race with a number of internationals engaged for their first run in Australia and the rematch between HARTNELL and BONNEVAL. All eyes will be on tactics today, with a distinct lack of speed in the race and Bonneval drawn in barrier 11. I think they’ll be much further forward on Hartnell today but I’m not convinced they’ll lead. James Cummings wants him ridden forward of midfield with cover, but they won’t be last like last start. Bonneval on the other hand will likely settle near the back of the field from the wide gate. She was under strong pressure a long way from home in the Underwood and I thought Hartnell had her cold, but she proved superior and if anything, was pulling away on the line. The step up to 2000m is only going to see her improve, and I think she’s a genuine top-liner so I’m sticking with her to beat Hartnell again. JOHANNES VERMEER was a Group 3 winner in a small field two starts ago over this distance but he’s never won first up and the booking of Katelyn Mallyon suggests to me that he’ll need the run. RIVEN LIGHT has won three of its last four starts, all over 1700m-1800m and all on wet tracks. I’d imagine the Caulfield Cup is his target so this will just be a race to blow out the cobwebs, but you can’t underestimate master trainer Willie Mullins. CALDERON is first up in Australia for Tony McEvoy. He’s got a good first up record with two wins from three starts and won first up last prep in Group 3 company over 1800m. THE TAJ MAHAL is a very classy horse for the world’s best trainer Aiden O’Brien. He’s been running in very good races recently but his placing two starts ago in America was his first from five starts at the distance. JON SNOW faces a much tougher task here than what he did when winning the JRA Cup at Moonee Valley last start. INFERENCE was charging home in the Underwood before being checked 50m from home. He looks like he’s ready to run a big race but might still need 2400m. GAILO CHOP will get his chance on speed in a race with no tempo. He’s got five wins from eight starts at the distance and draws perfectly.
TIP: Bonneval
Race 8 – Group 1 Caulfield Guineas
Looks a race between ROYAL SYMPHONY and CATCHY, but I think GOLD STANDARD could be the value. Royal Symphony had his bubble burst last start when he could only manage 4th, but he still ran the equal-fastest final 400m of the race. He’ll be better for that experience, but my query with him is that he seemed a much better horse on the big track at Flemington. He’ll have to come from well back in the field here. CATCHY draws a beautiful barrier and the difference is that she’s got a terrific record at Caulfield, with three wins and two placings from five starts. She will appreciate the good tempo sure to be set by the likes of THE MISSION, PERAST, SIRCCONI and SHOWTIME. She only finished 3rd behind Booker and Shoals last start but she’s ready for the 1600m now and the fillies actually ran a quicker time than the boys in the Prelude. She drops from 58.5kg to 54.5kg here and despite no filly winning the Caulfield Guineas in about 40 years, she can win. GOLD STANDARD comes out of a strong edition of the Golden Rose and that form should see him be very competitive here. The race was run very fast and he was the last on-pacer left standing at the end. Draws well and should enjoy a nice run so he looks over the odds at double figures. KEMENTARI looks set to peak third up over 1600m but I would have liked to have seen a bit more from him in two starts so far this prep. He finished his race off very nicely last start and looks to be crying out for 1600m but he needs to improve again. ÉCLAIR SUNSHINE the blowout.
TIP: Catchy
Race 9 – Group 1 Toorak Handicap
Cracking field and a wide open race but I can’t look past EGG TART who I think is a star. She was scratched from the Epsom due to an eye irritation but she’s missed no work and if she had have run in that I feel she would have gone very close to beating Happy Clapper, if not won it herself. There has been plenty of talk that she was going to go up against Winx in the Cox Plate, and if that’s the case then she’d want to go very close to winning here. Undefeated at the distance, drawn well and well weighted for a dual Group 1 winner. I’ll be having a strong each way bet at $6.50. COMIN’ THROUGH is the value horse in the race at double figure odds. He was given no chance in the Epsom, trapped three-wide back in the field. He’s much better drawn here so he will land in the first four to six horses I’d think, and from there he’ll be very competitive. MR SNEAKY is drawn well and should be able to run out a strong 1600m. The double figure odds about him also appeal. THE ANSWERMYFRIEND ran huge last start after being taken on in the lead by an apprentice on a lightweight horse. He still boxed on very gamely and a softer run on speed from the good draw here will see him hard to beat. My query is he went through a running rail during a trial this week and his gallop after that was a bit underwhelming. SOVEREIGN NATION, TOM MELBOURNE, KASPERSKY and SNITZSON all chances.
TIP: Egg Tart / Comin’ Through EW
Race 10
Very nice race to finish the card. SUPER CASH returns from a spell here and she was due to run in the Moir Stakes but missed a run as the emergency. She’s won three from four when first up, which includes a win over Chautauqua first up last prep. Undefeated at the track and distance and draws to get a super run. SHEIDEL bounced back last start after a disappointing first up run. She ran 3rd in the Moir behind She Will Rain and comes into this third up from a spell. She’s won four of her six starts when third up from a spell and has a great record at the track. She’ll zoom across from the wide gate and be there for a long way. David Hayes listed her as his best chance at Caulfield this weekend. HELLBENT has been set for this race and went very close to winning a Group 1 last prep so if he’s at his peak for this he will be right in the finish. FIRST AMONG EQUALS has won four from six when first up from a spell and has his first start for Weir here. ROCK MAGIC ran bravely in the Moir Stakes and should improve given he hadn’t trialled leading into that. LANKAN RUPEE is the X-factor. If he ran similar to what he did first up behind Ability he’d be in the finish here. Gets his chance from barrier 1. Backing Super Cash at $5.50 and Hellbent at $9.50.
TIP: Super Cash / Hellbent EW
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
