There is no doubt the start of the 2017 AFL season has been very interesting. I think we all knew the Hawks were going to fall down the ladder, but to see them on the bottom after getting smashed by the Suns is a surprise. The Tigers, meanwhile, are sitting near the top! Let's see how the next few weeks play out and hopefully during that time find plenty of winners - starting with my 2017 AFL Round 4 preview & betting tips.
2017 AFL Round 4 Betting Tips
West Coast Eagles v Sydney Swans (Thursday, April 13th at 6:10pm AWST)
The Swans fly out west on the back of their third straight loss which sees them sit 16th on the ladder - not something I thought I would be saying at any point this season. The Eagles, meanwhile, are comfortable in 6th, but will be keen to forget last week's defeat at the hands of Richmond.
The lead up to Round 4 has been all about the demise of Hawthorn, but the Swans are really in a similar position. The major difference, however, has been the way the Swans have lost - i.e they haven't been smashed by 13 goals by a struggling team like Gold Coast. You can forgive losing to the Bulldogs in a fierce premiership rematch and you can probably even forgive getting trounced by a fired-up Port Adelaide in a Round 1 clash. Last week is the real worry. They shouldn't have lost to the Pies at the SCG and while they fought hard, their injury woes and inexperienced side (five debutants so far) is weighing heavily on their performance. Hopefully Tippett will be back in the side for Round 4, but it will still be a few weeks before the Swans can field a full strength team.
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West Coast's critics were out in a full force last Saturday afternoon, once again claiming that they struggle outside of Domain. Luckily for the Eagles it's back to their home turf this Thursday night to take on the Swans. The Eagles will also be happy to see the weather forecast considering they looked the goods last week when the sun was shining and faltered when Melbourne's weather turned to torrential rain after half time. Overall they had more scoring shots than the Tigers, but struggled once Dustin Martin got going and the Tigers made the most of their opportunities.
The last time these two teams met, the Swans won by 39 points in a game played at the SCG. The last time they played at Domain the Eagles won by 52 points, but overall the Swans actually have one of the best records in the West of any visiting team, winning four of the last five matches against the Eagles. I think the Swans match-up quite well against the Eagles, but with their current list (and especially without Dane Rampe to help with West Coast's potent forward line), the Eagles should win at Domain. I also like the look of the total game score to go over with three of the last five between these two at Domain being high scoring and two of the Swans ' three losses this year going over 190 points. The Eagles love to put up big scores at Domain, so I think the Swans will likely try to match it in this department.
Tip: West Coast by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.10 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
+ Total Points Over 182.5 - $1.90 at CrownBet (1.5 units)
North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs (Friday, April 14th at 4:20pm AEST)
Footy will be played on Good Friday for the first time in Round 4 with North Melbourne taking on the Western Bulldogs in what is hoped to become a yearly tradition.
The Bulldogs go into this clash 2-1 on the back of a loss to Fremantle last week. The Dockers were actually the last team to beat the Bulldogs in 2016, so they are proving to a bit of a kryptonite team for the reigning premiers. That's no excuse, however, with the Bulldogs clearly looking vulnerable at times. The Travis Cloke experiment especially looked a little awry last week, with the Dogs not looking dangerous enough when moving the ball forward. I wouldn't be surprised if the Dogs shook things up this week. They will be hoping Liam Picken bounces back after suffering a concussion early in last week week's game.
The Kangaroos have played better football this season than we expected, but ultimately they can't be too happy about being 0-3. Their most recent loss saw them swamped by the fast-moving and slick GWS midfield and while the margin was 42 points, they were destroyed for most of the game with GWS having 17 more scoring shots. North Melbourne's biggest positive at the moment is big man Braydon Preuss who has quickly become one of the in-form ruckmen in the comp. He will play a big role if North are any chance against the Dogs on Friday. Robbie Tarrant has also started the season strongly and will be a headache for the Bulldogs' scoring capacity. Considering this Good Friday experiment is North Melbourne's baby, you have to think they come out and put in a competitive effort, but I'm expecting the Dogs to bounce back and play similar free-flowing football to the Giants last week.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, April 15th at 1:45pm AEST)
I thought the Dockers would be going into Round 4 winless and might only managed 2-3 wins for the entire season, but they managed to beat the reigning premiers last week and the future looks just a touch brighter. The real test will now be if they can back it up with a strong performance against the Demons this Saturday.
The Demons will be very disappointed with their loss to the Cats last week, having six more scoring shots in their 29-point defeat. More disappointing is that they lost Max Gawn to injury in what is likely to see the big man on the sidelines for at least 12 weeks. It will be interesting to see if Jake Spencer can step up and fill the void, but you can't really replace someone of Gawn's quality. Luckily for the Demons, their young midfield is fired up and playing some great footy - even with the current absence of Jordan Lewis.
Fremantle did everything right against the Bulldogs last week. They moved the ball in an attacking manner that we haven't seen from them in a long time. However, they did still fail to reach 100 points - which they haven't done since Round 12 last season. Although I don't want to take anything away from their victory last week, the Dogs clearly played poorly. I'm not sure the Dockers should be hyped up just yet. Their young players showed some promise last week (especially Brady Gray) but they are too inexperienced to be relied upon. Likewise, you can't expect their older players like David Mundy to suddenly dominate every week. They will no doubt get some confidence after last week, but I think they should be brought back to earth in Melbourne on Saturday.
Tip: Melbourne at the line (-21.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1.5 units)
GWS Giants vs Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, April 15th at 4:35pm AEST)
Both the Giants and Power go into Round 4 with a 2-1 record and are set to play what should be one of the best games of the week.
After the last couple of weeks, the opening round of the season is starting to look like a very minor blip on the Giants' radar. They coasted over the Roos last week, barely looking like they broke a sweat. Their midfield was outstanding, but it's their forward line setup that can be the most damaging - if the bigs like Cameron and Lobb don't get you, it's time to worry about Toby Greene and co. This week's game won't be so easy, but the game is in Canberra and they have a solid record against Port Adelaide.
This is really is going to be one of those 'battle of the midfield' games with these teams ranked 1 and 2 at stoppages. They are also ranked equal first for inside 50s. Port Adelaide come into this on the back of a competitive loss to the Crows and while I think the Giants should win, I think the four-goal line is a bit high. Port Adelaide will certainly miss Paddy Ryder (note: Matthew Lobbe is also out), but as long as Ollie Wines and their midfield keep up their efforts of the last few weeks, this shouldn't be a blow-out.
Tip: GWS by 1-39 Points (Under 39.5) - $2.25 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Carlton Blues vs Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, April 15th at 7:25pm AEST)
If there were two teams who needed a confidence booster going into last week it was both the Carlton Blues and the Gold Coast Suns. Carlton got just that in their win over the Bombers, but the Suns topped that effort they destroyed the mighty Hawks.
This is actually one of the tougher games of the round to predict and that's because there are outside factors that are hard to quantify. The Blues played an arch-rival last week and scored a brave victory in torrential conditions. How much of that form can we consider when they take on the Suns this week? The Suns, meanwhile, looked very dangerous against the Hawks, but clearly there is something not working at Hawthorn that played a big role in that result. They capitalised when they could, however, and their quick ball movement looked very dangerous. Despite their history at Etihad - they've lost the last five at the stadium - I think they have enough class to overcome the Suns on Saturday night. The Blues are still a very inexperienced side and while Marc Muprhy and Bryce Gibbs have been very good the last few weeks, I think the Suns should be able to score the win with quick ball movement similar to how Melbourne defeated the Blues a fortnight ago.
Tip: Gold Coast at the line (-4.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Adelaide Crows vs Essendon Bombers (Saturday, April 15th at 7:10pm ACST)
The Crows are undefeated heading into Round 4 of the 2017 AFL season and are looking very tough to beat after victories over the Giants, Hawks and Power. Essendon, meanwhile, started the season with two wins, but received a bit of a shake-up in their loss to the Blues last week. They will face a tough task heading to Adelaide on Saturday night.
The Crows are almost 40-points favourites and you could argue that almost half that line is because this game is being played at Adelaide Oval. They have a formidable record on their home deck and will be confident heading into this one. The only question is how they recover after a tough showdown against their arch-rivals last week, but you could say the same thing about the Bombers as they come into this on the back of a wet-weather slog. The Crows will win this game out of the middle, being the third-ranked centre clearance team in the comp compared to the Bombers in the bottom two. Rory Sloane is also in scary form and will no doubt prove a handful for the Bombers. While I do think the Crows deserve to be heavy favourites, I think the line is a little high. I'm also not confident on where Essendon sit at the moment. They defeated the Hawks in Round 1, but we know what has happened with Hawthorn since then. Their only other victory was against the Lions a couple of weeks ago. Adelaide will win, but opting to sit out from betting on this one.
Tip: No Bet
Collingwood Magpies vs St Kilda Saints (Sunday, April 16th at 3:20pm AEST)
Most thought Collingwood would be going into Round 4 winless, but they surprised us all with a riveting 1-point victory over the Swans at the SCG last week. The Saints also scored their first victory last week, overcoming the Lions by 31 points. They meet at Etihad on Sunday afternoon in a rare Collingwood home game away from the MCG.
Collingwood's midfield continues to prove itself as one of the toughest in the competition and so the Saints will wish they had Jack Steven and David Armitage on the park. Fortunately, they have a fairly deep young midfield brigade, but Steven especially is hard to cover for. Where the Saints will give themselves a chance against Collingwood is with their tough forward line and with Nick Riewoldt being the general around the ground - he was massive for the Saints last week and will need that sort of effort again on Sunday. I lean towards the Pies being able to out-muscle the Jack Steven-less Saint midfield, but like the look of the either team market at Sportsbet. Should be one of the more interesting match-ups of the round.
Tip: Either Team Under 24.5 - $1.83 at Sportsbet (2 units)
Note: Since publication there have been reports Jack Steven and David Armitage are aiming to play on Sunday. The Saints could be considered if they get up, but my official play is still as above.
Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers (Sunday, April 16th at 4:40pm AEST)
After two rounds the Tigers had defeated the Pies and Carlton and you would be forgiven if you didn't get too excited about their prospects. But then they overcame the Eagles last week and its time to legitimately ask: are they are the real deal? We might not be able to answer that question if they score an expected win over the Lions in Round 4, but we might be closer to an answer if they disappoint us with a loss.
Brisbane's biggest problem so far this season has been consistency. They have played some great football at times (led by Dayne Beams), but outside of Round 1, haven't been able to string together long enough patches to win games. Not only will they be facing a red-hot Tiger outfit with players like Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin in red-hot form, they will be a facing a team they haven't defeated since 2009. The Lions have proven to us they are improving, but not enough to win games like this. Brisbane should show enough on their home turf to be relatively competitive, but expecting a solid Tiger win.
Tip: Richmond by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats (Monday, April 17th at 3:20pm AEST)
I've already spoken a little bit about Hawthorn in other game previews this week - it's hard not to. They are the talk of the football world at the moment and deserve to be considering they have been the best team of this era. It's going to be extremely interesting to see how they respond to the criticism when they take on their modern arch-rivals, the Geelong Cats.
Too old and too slow. That's what most are saying about the Hawks. There are alos talks that they haven't 'gelled' yet with their new line-up that is lacking Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis. Their new recruits have been solid when you look at them in a nutshell, but overall the team has been horrible. It would take a brave man to think they can defeat the Cats this weekend, but I also think this is absolutely a danger game to bet on. Don't be surprised if the Hawks try to make a statement. But also don't be surprised if they really are cooked. Hate to sit on the fence this much, but we are in uncharted territory with the Hawks at the moment. If I was forced to bet on the game I like the Cats at the line, but playing it safe.
Tip: No Bet
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